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Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 121 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 hours ago Member since: Apr 27, 2005
  • Reply to

    Milestone payments

    by islb3 May 21, 2015 2:23 PM
    culleraa culleraa 21 hours ago Flag

    The milestones came largely from Mitek, as you know. When the FDA refused to approve Monovisc, Anika did a deal with Mitek, and used their help... but cost them the possibility to go direct. In return they got milestones, though. Could be the same again with Cingal, and really significant milestoneish payments this time. It is not impossible that FDA clears the product as a device... if not it will go the drug route - with a major delay of course. Another possibility is to go direct with it: it would be a Monovisc killer anyway. Excitement is always relative... incremental improvement has always been better for my portfolio! Factor in the cash and the forward PE on Anika is not much above 20.

  • Reply to

    What is going on?

    by synchrohead May 21, 2015 12:13 PM
    culleraa culleraa May 21, 2015 4:49 PM Flag

    Seems they can. They did. Still, some 400-500k gross margin will not swing to a profit.... but if it's one of many...

  • Worth a listen. Drake at his best, so he gets his message over too well for the interviewer. Still, he is asked the right questions. On the pre-emptive side , we now hear tht the Q1 light good but light PA growth was in his terms an own-goal: a few reps stuffing the channel in q4 to get an extra bonus. If Pa weakness is half the explanation for the stock drop that is a 200m damage to shareholder value!...
    DCB is really the only topic of interest, which is tough.... since it will be 2 year for Stel into the USA and maybe 3 for the below the knee version. Meanwhile marketing trumps clinical, at least in the US, and medtronic will have the lion's chunk of the market. Yesterday they said they are already no.1 by market share after only months on the market. That's the USA, In Europe it has been on sale for 5 years... and reached only a normal, modest share. In the US that's 5 years of pentup demand... or more accurately supply.
    SPNC are saying that things will calm down after a bolus of interest.
    Although the answer is obvious, no-one asks why mdt/cov divested the Stellarex platform if it is the world's best, by Drake, and not the other one.

  • Reply to

    Andy Sassine?

    by culleraa May 18, 2015 8:27 AM
    culleraa culleraa May 18, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Well we all know now what was posted April 20. Management knew for sure on the call... but were quiet. Using the breast IORT code for skin was a money printer.... but with the general code a money loser. The reimb. needs to be really high to pay for the radiation technician...

  • Reply to

    Andy Sassine?

    by culleraa May 18, 2015 8:27 AM
    culleraa culleraa May 18, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    I was referring to 5 yrs ago, he had a 5%+ stake in that company CNSO
    As to whether he bought on the drop and sold ICAD into the bounce ... no idea. Maybe bought before the drop and is now stuck...

  • culleraa by culleraa May 18, 2015 8:27 AM Flag

    Filed 5% holder as event on May 7th... the day of the crash. So, possible he bought a million shares that day - or filled a position on or biz day before.... Hard to know... He's done this kind of thing once before some 5yrs ago... that co. is now pink sheets!

  • culleraa by culleraa May 18, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    Not that it is on the cards... Gross profitis up y-y 70%... but only where has been for last few quarters. Said to be due to the deferred revenues. Cash is king in this type of company, so it is surprising there is no comment on the 2m jump in ARs.... which needs to be financed by the SVB loan.
    According to the CFO, even the on-premise license biz has gone cloudy: no more boluses of big license funding being released anymore. In turn that means less liklihood of a blow-out quarter... not that they have been seen for nearly 10 years!

  • ASCO being the biggest forum for marketing any med or diag these days... hopefully also to spur licensing deals. Otherwise, this level of business growth does not help. ARs reached a new record again, of course these are offset by the APs.. but there is more risk involved than keeping it skinny. Still, the current biz has full CLIA, so they can launch per now at ASCO. Trovagene is only showing a poster at ASCO. Can't really see that urine can be patented anymore than plasma... so dunno what other see in that...

  • Looks like they upped the price of almost everything for OA, so no bet on Anika as such...

  • A few days ago a large study was published nailing enriched plasma as an alternative in knee OA. As good as maybe...for a messier procedure: Platelet-Rich Plasma Intra-articular Knee Injections Show No Superiority Versus Viscosupplementation: A Randomized Controlled Trial.
    This was level 1 ... as good as it gets... point being that another kind of study came to the opposite conclusion, but being a retrospective review is only level 2...

  • From Rheumatology network... a week ago, taken from the OARSI meeting presentation. What the AAOsurgeons were doing was screwing their study with biased unpublished data showing no effect vs saline (an active treatment anyway). Will take time to reverse the harm they have done though...

    A new systematic review of randomized trials has concluded that evidence modestly supports a pain-relieving effect for intra-articular hyaluronic acid (IAHA) in patients with knee osteoarthritis. The effect size of -0.39 (p

  • Reply to

    NSPH becomes investable again

    by culleraa May 12, 2015 8:49 AM
    culleraa culleraa May 12, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    In the interests of whatever... Like I wrote "pretty much same as q4" and not, as I wrote in a hurry, also "sequential growth".Since there wasn't... Not that a 100k here or there is the issue: THE issue for a few years has been the earlier lack of foresight to raise cash... so the co. has been going from one little runway to the next. Older shareholders now have 72% of the stock if the warrants convert. And there's no way to sugarcoat the fact that this dilution got only a max of 8.8 m cash... but access to 20+ m extra net debt financing should be good for the rest of the year.

  • Reply to

    Catalyst

    by godwintom May 11, 2015 2:17 PM
    culleraa culleraa May 12, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    As a newish investor, and one who bought a bit more on this "slight delay", all I can say is that some have lost perspective. With this "2nd gen" technology durasert you have an enormous pipeline of "drugs" already (though I doubt for OA). Ashton does not present himself or the company the way wallst is used to, but that's a non-issue to getting business done and allows a cheap stockprice to get in. Maybe progrees on the next gen is slow, but at least they have one... and are not shy of saying there current one will be superseeded , hopefully by one of theirs'....

  • This is due to the ability to fund the growth with debt. That, in turn, is down to the eventual some 30% dilution we got form the stock +warrrants. That is like 50 m shares at the price.So good news and bad news. Better news was the sequential growth, as well as annual growth. Absolute gross margin increased 68% year over, which is higher than the 50% I previously suggested is needed for excitement.. That said, pretty much same as q4... so we need to see more improvement. So no bk coming, they can fund next gen and market cap some 35... 40 m ... depending on calc... compare that to peers at 10x... 100x.

  • culleraa culleraa May 7, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    That WSJ article must have sparked so much interest Noridian closed the loophole. Ferry has modeled in 6K per lesion... From a Fierce article: EBx treatment has a temporary billing code used for breast and brain radiation, and Medicare typically pays $770 to $1,600 per treatment. When all is said and done, eBx therapy hands practices as much as $24,000 per patient. So they make a ton of money 18k on this calc. As much as is not average... maybe 18 or so? Anyway short term result is that these affected docs will not do the procedure under Medicare. Long term depends what Icad with Astro's help will get. Icad gets 4000+ per lesion, could maybe survive on 3ish but the docs will want a lot more...

  • So far today anyway. Q1 US Rx were 3% down... yet to see Takeda for another view. By comparison Linzess sales growth pretty much stopped... Sales to Japan are maybe too good... could be EOY stocking or prior to the Mylan switch. Looks like Mylan rejects Teva.. So maybe less disruption.
    Amitiza still has a pipeline, as do the prostones, especially in GERD...

  • Reply to

    Just found this at Noridian website:

    by cold_beef_cake May 6, 2015 8:17 PM
    culleraa culleraa May 7, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    Well this is two different things 1) is current make-do and the other is 2) a long-term solution.
    What clouds 2 is that a decision needs to be made and an amount set ... without long-term data.

    What we see now is 1) where the super-good code is being denied. It pays the provider some 6x a general code... it is said.

    Guessing, Noridian is not a big part of the business, yet... but may be part of a bigger wave. Also, order does not appear to be retroactive. At least for these states covered, there will be a 6-month window of low reimb., assuming a new code for Jan 2016. Investors will have some 5m of uncertainty...

  • Up 33% in 3 months... due to convertible debt going to shares. share count is up, too... but only 4%. This gives a safe basis for doing the deal, whatever it is. Rx up 11% q-q supports the 50% rev. growth goal - just.

  • culleraa culleraa May 6, 2015 6:23 AM Flag

    Not at all pathetic. Especially in a down market, holding is a free option -- at least for keeping ones gains vs making another "bet". Still, some bets are getting relatively cheaper and it might be time to sell anyway!

  • culleraa by culleraa May 5, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Cash held up much better than expected. This is needed.. debt of 4m a Q of 3ish m cash loss by Sept. 1. That brings cash down to 4-5 m by end of q3, even with cashflow positive Q3. Meru needs another credit agreement absent a buyout.

TMO
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