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Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 7:19 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
  • Not been mentioned here yet?, But according to Biomerieux, Biofire sales were some 100 m usd in 2014. Previously, they were given as 70 m for 2013, so growth of 43%. Nsph achieved growth of 43%, too. So, even with "unlimited" financial support not growing any faster! ... says something....
    Of course 7x bigger, inc. all lines, which gives scale...

  • Reply to

    What about the delayed 10K?

    by culleraa Apr 1, 2015 3:03 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 1, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    right, nt filed...

  • March 31st unless extension applied for...?

  • Reply to

    Cracking jokes,as well

    by culleraa Apr 1, 2015 5:54 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 1, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    Well, the answer to the last bit is cos they put all the a&d in the cogs line. Even converting all the converts, value of the less than 10m these days.

  • Reply to

    So Clonidine was worth what they paid for it?

    by culleraa Mar 31, 2015 4:47 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 1, 2015 6:05 AM Flag

    Not to beat dead horses, but "they" have to see that a trial expense can not always be an investment to be rescued. Maybe Arcion doctored the data ... you know the old clean the database for outliers trick... Bdsi got the p of 0.16 on the first 70 patients, vs. Arcion's 0.01 hindsight subset. I do not believe they would have gone into the program if Arcion has sold it with that 0.16 level data.

  • Last cc the CFO sounded depressed, this time he's cracking jokes. Maybe that says something?
    Not losing so much cash per q anymore, so Zack does not need to chip in:banks are loaning instead. I guess QE finally found its way to Astea.
    Zack tried a joke in the PR,claiming the move to the OTC increased trading volume! Well, yes for those who had to get out of non-listed stocks it lasted for a few days. After that it has been like 5000 dollars/day.... We have to hope he is a better CEO than a comedian, but the track record ain't good on either career path...
    What ain't funny either is the negative margin on the license sales,no-one asked Rick that...

  • Kind of odd that they all are... using the EV for Anika (with cash) vs the other that will have none by the time,if ever, they get to market. Others meaning flexion and ampio... but also the chinese one. Some dark horses too. Histogencis filed their 10k to show a cap of roughly 130 m, quite cheap, but then not OA but cartilage repair... the Anika orthobiologics maybe competitor. In that space no shortage of competition for Hyalofast. Hyalofast likely has most clinical use,in EU, and a heck of a lot simpler than most of the others. Looking at what investors value though, the OA franchise is where the money is (although here it is spread around too many players both public and private).

  • Which was 2 m, and not even in cash. Everything else was conditional. Shareholders have paid out maybe some 30 m on top.
    On reflection, nothing went well in this P3 trial. The original premise was that the stuff worked well in a responder group to the tune of a p of 0.01. On a slightly bigger population the first, but slightly bigger 70 cohort did not come close, at p of 0.16. Naturally, a few different patient responses could have easily changed that p-value result - but the point is either way!
    The absolute worst news in this was that the last part of the trial showed how the stuff acts in the real world: it doesn't help at all.
    So, I'd agree with others and that last analyst... return Clonidine to Arcion - and Finn can follow...
    The longer they wait, the longer it will take "the market" to forgive!

  • Reply to

    others - what do you think?

    by investguy571 Mar 30, 2015 10:19 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 30, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    there were basically 3 cohorts here? 70+80+110. The 80 was pretty weak,too, since the 0.5 was for the 150 as I recall.On pure random basis you would "expect" in in-between result. IF it really was down to potential reasons given, smacks of incompetent trial site management.... and haste.

  • Reply to

    others - what do you think?

    by investguy571 Mar 30, 2015 10:19 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 30, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Down to general function of stats here, they are only trying to prove that Clondine is better than placebo beyond reasonable doubt. So same gap just with more patients makes it more likely, they hoped up to 95%, ie p

  • Sounds like basic amateur mistakes were made... botched beyond belief.

  • Stock price never supported a good result... at least Sirgio's assertions of the value of Clondine. Luckily it was the first of the 2 p3s. Better this than to have it happen the 2nd time.
    Bunavail Rx share went up a bit more than last few weeks and discounting the milestone payments as actual cash, make the co.seem an awful lot endo.. now the value is back i the core bema applications.

  • Most people I have heard in this space know large molecules don't travel to the retina ... it's like the BBB. So lets' thank Ohr for showing even 627, I believe, was too high. As for the efficacy in a v. small group of patients... who knows. The premise was Sq is proven active, we just have to get it to the right spot at high concentration. I suspected any visual improvement was ever due to just better tears...

  • Reply to

    iSONEP Analyst Question

    by tredleon Mar 24, 2015 7:50 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 26, 2015 4:42 PM Flag

    Thx for that. I might be wrong, but i think the issue is not about the blind, but the fact that "some insider" can see all, or enough, of the retina scans, and see if the average is much more than one might expect:a miracle drug would show up!... one which is somewhat, eve significantly somewhat, better would not.

  • Reply to

    Darned strange Asonep RCC activity

    by culleraa Mar 25, 2015 7:54 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 25, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    I recall it was said only initially lower dose... and like you said,you'd expect a dose-response. Otherwise agree, too!

  • Jus reading the .gov site, which says that 12+ out of the first 22 exceeded 2 months (that needed to continue with trial), which means less than 3 out of next 17 did, if only 15 total made it to 2 months out of 39. So from 54% to

  • culleraa by culleraa Mar 25, 2015 7:40 AM Flag

    Talk worth a listen since it is q and a ... CFO a bit robotic in English, but a lot of info. Cingal was said to be significantly better than saline in trial ad later that the data were very strong. The drug used is already FDA approved, so I guess the issue may only be how the dose differs from the label: ie quantity. Since the HA takes over, only a small amount of steroid is needed.... ad to work it need to wash out of the HA quickly. So if they solved that, they should get the PMA accepted for review. No guarantees but the window closes in a few weeks. If they get into the process,sounds like they will get the approval, eventually.

  • After now having listened to the call, I'd like to say I really like this management team... nothing like the pitches from used-car-Pancoast. Answer all questions, and no dreaming... compare to eg Neuralstem's interpretations, or lack of them!
    Still, I am wondering the date when they saw that at "a 95% level" getting 25 RCCs to respond to Asonep would likely not be met: 15 vs 25 to 2 m is a big difference... does that explain the stock dip to 2.3 late last year? They send out the PR when all the data are in and cross-checked, for sure..
    Now they tell us about how excited they are about Isonep, that's interesting - that they wanted at a conference doesn't, it just says they have a well-designed trial. As one analyst asked and judging by the reply, they are blinded to the patients but they can see the totality of the data. Stock price maybe tells us Isonep is no blockbuster, but on the whole patients doing at least as well as those normally on VGEF.... so everything to play for. Let's see. If so, I would expect these weak signals to quite quickly (a few weeks) compensate for a morning dip!

  • Well, if it has/ had a patient benefit. We all like medians because you have to wait a helluva long time for an average number, especially if the drug works well. Based on very limited info and knowledge, looks like they had quite a few outliers in the asonep trial... which might indicate a divergence... ie there is a responder sub-group.... anyways result does not much affect the intrinsic potential value of the co, yet.
    got the 10k bit right though...

  • Reply to

    Expect volatility tomorrow

    by culleraa Mar 23, 2015 2:30 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 24, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    Well, he ducked... sent the number spinner.

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