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Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 103 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 9:30 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
  • If to-date, continues for 20 days then there is another "beat" here very soon. SGA expense is now a fairly fixed amount and r&d is difficult to ramp really quick so most of the 90%+ margin will go to the pre-tax earnings? If so, I make that some 17c, way more than analysts... All above requires increase in scrips to translate into increase in revenues directly, which might not be the case. Quick math suggest they will have q1 scrips as high as last quarter by end of this week.

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by richard2137 Mar 10, 2015 5:38 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 11, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    It WAS great. The earnings suggest big boost in r&d spending, to be expected. Analysts had expected a few more million -easily explained by the the midpoint of guidance, not the upper. The key thing though is whether this momo continues into 2016. At the moment that is 90c, if that happens, stock should more than double irrespective of trial success?

  • The prostone-based Rescula works for the control of IOP, just not that well as some others... R-Tech thought it might work in the retina, too.. in RP. Studies were good, drops gave extra lines, but p3 showed that placebo is as good. So, again, drops have failed... Shark goo is up next... whether it shows any benefit may well be down to what the control drops contain: seems to be the case that all drops work very well, they just don't do it via the intended mechanism! Anyway, we won't have that problem, as long as they control for patient eyedrop use off protocol.

  • The prostone-based Rescula works for the control of IOP, just not that well as some others... R-Tech thought it might work in the retina, too.. in RP. Studies were good, drops gave extra lines, but p3 showed that placebo is as good. So, again, drops have failed... Shark goo is up next... whether it shows any benefit may well be down to what the control drops contain: seems to be the case that all drops work very well, they just don't do it via the intended mechanism! Anyway, we won't have that problem, as long as they control for patient eyedrop use off protocol.

  • Reply to

    Anticipated profitability

    by aetheranimus Mar 6, 2015 9:38 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 6, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    Often heard... but if that's the case they would need to guide for the next 6 years. After which time they will pay and have paid some 50 m for the 25 m loan... or a net 25 m to make it sound better. They raised the cash to use it, so technically we have an EV of 107 + 10 m or so for options, if the cash is used. Or EV is now 7x fy2014 sales. That's what they need to grow into! 80% margin was maybe what the market expected for guidance for 2015? Need that to pay the royalty!

  • For those of us who look there first!, recognizing the tax benefits makes a big difference to financial strength of the company... hopefully more m&a since they seem to be going well: ie more earnout payments due.

  • Did better on sales than analysts interpreted "guidance"... added a bit to 2015 as well. Need a stepup to the qly rev rate though, maybe due to salespeople finally getting productive?

  • This was promised "shortly" on the cc. Raising cash was buying time, an r/s is less likely about that. Increasing the no-of shares is a formality. Sounds like closure means they want to go it alone! Would be better to have the Board issue an 8-K to close the issue though... with reasoning behind that.

  • As I said earlier Takeda already told us q4 Amitiza US sales were up 38% in yen, so I make some 19% in usd. "for royalty purposes" figure might be different.
    Also, the Cowen webcast had the US Trx estimate for 2014 - with comment that growth was multi year high at 12%. Add to that the annual price increase and up to 20% growth in Sucampo revenues sounds ballpark possible?
    Abbot Rx's in Japan are off the chart... sales might be different, but normally there are good incentives prior to closing a deal - so Sucampo could really surprise

  • Reply to

    JNJ's Gorsky's comments on Anika

    by culleraa Mar 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 3, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    On the Q4-end of year JNJ conf call. Transcript is on the SA site. Monovisc is like 0.0000000001% of JNJ sales, so it is interesting he mentions it. To get the analyst crowd used to the names before he buys them all?!

  • Well, yes and no. Looking at the timelines, it might be all planned. Tested here out on the quality committee and they think she will be able handle it. So, I suppose the good news is that there is no waiting period - she has basically been doing the job - or most of it - for months. Bad news is that she is not from the refractory "industry", if at least medical. Still the COB is an old LASIK hand.. And maybe she isn't planning on being around for long either, has retired at least once already!

  • Well, I went to check up on some of the stuff thrown out on the cc. It's true that CS sounds a bit careless, but he knows more than we do. Below is what the Seeking Alpha script says, but it is noteworthy that the CEO of a 300B dollar company mentions BOTH product names... correctly. And FIRST... and uses the expression "continued strong growth" . JNJ has grown fast in the past so they know the meaning and use of words... you can't pay the guy to say these things, so i'd say they are all true!

    Orthopedics sales growth was driven by Sports Medicine, hips, spine and knees. The successful launch of MONOVISC coupled with the continued strong growth for ORTHOVISC drove results for Sports Medicine. Hip growth of 5% worldwide was driven by strong volume growth partially offset by continued pricing pressure. Primary stem platform sales were a major contributor to the results. Spine grew 3% with solid market volume growth and new product launches partially offset by continued pricing pressure. Knees worldwide increased 3% due to the successful launch of ATTUNE, with pricing pressure offset by positive mix.

  • Finally. Bad news is that this is financing a startup..Embomedics.. bit by bit fortunately.
    5 years+ to market. so only for the patient....

  • By 30%, but downgraded the stock, ie they have been wrong for a long time... favoring Linzess.
    Maybe, but long-term we are all full of it and dead as said. The valuation gap is still compelling vs irwd.
    Actually Takeda already told us q4 Amitiza US sales were up 38%.
    That was yen, so I make some 19% in usd. "for royalty purposes" figure might be different - usually has been higher since royalty normally goes up with volume. Abbot Rx's in Japan are off the chart... sales might be different, but normally there are good incentives prior to closing a deal.

  • Reply to

    heart failure news

    by lu249 Mar 2, 2015 8:55 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 2, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    Good, but snail's pace progress! 15 m since the first pr on this. Much longer since this healing effect was shown with 188. Still, with a decision taken, finally, in Dec last year to stat p2, the real news is when the p2 starts and how long it lasts...

  • Reply to

    Sherspeak revalations

    by culleraa Feb 27, 2015 6:15 AM
    culleraa culleraa Feb 27, 2015 4:51 PM Flag

    Revelations, of course! Interestingly, FDA has only 45 days to accept and file a PMA. Technically, that could be in just 2 weeks... it was filed beginning of Feb. Nothing to say Anika would tell us if it was, but they might feel compelled it it weren't? Sounds material like event.... Sounds to me that if it is accepted, it is a rather big deal in this case as it means Cingal will at least start its journey to market along the med device route.
    Fact that Hyalospine got a CE mark was buried in this report is interesting, too...

  • Anika has made a lot of cash... and, on paper, a fair amount for me... so I like to at least consider the positives of what he says .. and doesn't say. At the same time remembering their record on guidance and other issues.
    On the call, he says overall market share in US went up from 17 to 21%... implying sales up 23% on a flat market or 25ish% on a growing market. But Mitek sales! and maybe not sales, just "share"... and maybe not the full 4 points, given the fudge of 1-digit differences. A lower 3 point gain would be mathematically possible, too. He did not have to say that share gain, but he did. Certainly confused analyst Landy! But Sherwood has been using this inventory re-sizing for at least 12 months, now so who knows how to reconcile the likely 13% Anika US product sales growth with this almost double market share growth...
    On the Cingal product Sherspeak was quite clear: it is Monovisc+... not much more. He said it met all 1- and 2-goals in a meaningful way, did not say in a significant way. So I'd guess it is short term better pain relief and long term non-inferior to Monovisc. So, combines two old therpaies and should not be a major problem for the FDA: claims will be very limited. As for partner, it is almost obvious it would be Mitek, after all it is Monovisc+... but he can't say that before he gets the milestones and pricing agreed.
    Sherspeak guidance was ok: expect 13% growth AFTER B/L business goes away that means some 17% growth in the other businesses.

  • Reply to

    CC offered little

    by culleraa Feb 26, 2015 7:29 AM
    culleraa culleraa Feb 26, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    Yeah, someone else than the guy himself, and the Board and half the town. If. There is a slight, outside chance that the new CEO is, and remains, the boss of another entity... in other words the end game.

  • Reply to

    CC offered little

    by culleraa Feb 26, 2015 7:29 AM
    culleraa culleraa Feb 26, 2015 2:28 PM Flag

    Well, well... that little meant more to the market than I thought. Maybe only naming the new boss will be what it takes to fill the next gap up..

  • culleraa by culleraa Feb 26, 2015 7:29 AM Flag

    Biggest news I guess was the confirmation that there will be a new CEO next week... a well-connected name might help. S Korea is rebounding, faster than China earlier - luckily distributor is picking up tab, mostly. Japan is likely not, since wasn't mentioned. Cash position was questioned. They burnt 10 m in 2014, but half of that was inventory and ar's - which should not climb with sales stagnant. Q1 might still be additionally hurt by own manufacturing snafu... but that should be a "one-timer".
    FDA has halted US market progress...seems Staar got off to easy by having the Swiss site overlooked at the time. FDA doesn't exactly encourage firms to relocate to the US! No big issues, it seems... but then any issue is a big issue... and a huge distraction. Co. lawyer on the call prevented any meaningful discussion. Nothing on new product progress, since no-one asked...

TMO
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