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Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 10:06 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
  • No word... cash buys time. So I presume still ongoing. I was looking for 30% dilution and got more like a third. Still, unlike someone posted, this dilution did NOT change the position for the acquirer in any meaningful way except that they can no longer use time as a pressure point in the same way for another 6 months! The market cap is same now now as previous close - because market rightly assumes cash will be spent. We are still at 4x 2014E sales.
    If, or when, we know the issue buyers we get a clue as to whether they kept all their skin in the game..

  • Reply to

    Shmuel's Exit...

    by fujigrower Oct 22, 2014 11:38 PM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 23, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    Agreed! Stock price move makes it look like the wheels are falling off... or 2 legs of a stool in this case. Unlikely,, since CFO leaves at the point q3-q4 which causes least disruption. Next chance would be Feb next year, but then new CFO might not be as committed to the 2015 targets. Valuation of 1.5 x sales does not equate to the market opportunity...

  • culleraa culleraa Oct 23, 2014 7:08 AM Flag

    Unlike said elsewhere, I believe their royalty stream is almost entirely from the autoscope line, not rtms (since Econolite could not sell it!). Can always be renegotiated but that is a different story...

  • Massive dip on a few k shares because co cannot buy own shares is silly... assuming quiet period in force. Execution on micropulse is not as good as it first seems though! With a doubling in asp of a laser+txcell they are clearly selling less of the old generation. So it is not additive business. My guess is that they are selling quite few to new customers. Upside is that they could, should, and if do then off to the races...

  • Reply to

    Roth Capital raised PT for Sucampo

    by dcaf7 Oct 22, 2014 9:57 AM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 22, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    Indeed. Quite a jump... got to be highest ever... so far

  • culleraa by culleraa Oct 22, 2014 6:40 AM Flag

    Assuming the CEO knows what he is doing, he also gave sales guidance for the USA: steadily growing, after q3 sales should be "known".
    Also, message is quite clearly the co is back where it should be as a development org, at least in G/E. And not the integrated aspect which was rightly criticised. This Takeda deal nails that less than 3 after talking about it.
    Still, now the Amitiza franchise is looking more secure, also possibility to move on!

  • culleraa culleraa Oct 22, 2014 6:19 AM Flag

    Template is the same. Abbot's success gave sucampo a better negotiating position. Milestones were set quite early and quite low with Abbot, so maybe so here we are looking at close to 40m? Abbott handed some development costs to Sucampo, too...

  • This 3.7 m is sales was what was expected last Q (we would not be here now at 70 c if that had happened). This Q should then have been rather a lot higher! Of course the mix counts too...
    Making the big, or incredulous, leap that they are now back on track with their own sales plan that delay will need to be filled by 10 m usd worth of stock ... or likely around 20% dilution. That dilution would likely have happened anyway, but not at 20 m shares to cover a quarter's loss.

  • Can be searched for. Says they have done 160 prostate cases with no incontinence and less impotence than earlier. Explains the targeting they use ... better than most. With no FDA in the way, Europeans can use the field planning and mapping features of nanoknife as well as other modalities. Let's hope the European manager is as good a deVivo says he is, cos there should be a lot more IRE unit business closing now end 2014!

  • Not seen this volume for a long time... so that's a positive. All other are mostly due to lowered expectations!

  • Co says it is taking... well simplistically 0.9 m or so of profit was need to meet the 2.5 min. So it wasn't. Expected option is for Zack to loan and convert again... for which he wants the sp down. New management would be a step too far??

  • In the news today. In one polish patient. Maybe... he essentially had hemiparesis after one neat almost surgical cut. The method is similar to ours... but different cells (OECs which need to be extracted and cultured for each patient) plus own nerve tissue as scaffold. Effect of OEC has been known for 20 yrs or so but seemingly not effective and lately mostly studied by the chinese. This one case has nothing to do with disease states... so this is not actual "competition", for a long tine anyways!

  • Means any inference of efficacy is suspect at best. You pick the outcome by picking the patients in your "trial". It's not a trial just a study, Ko has been at this for years... basically trying a "complicated" solution to fix a a complicated (almost any) CNS problem. The simplicity is the delivery method... iv ... and the headline attention.

  • Sales in Japan still doing well.... from 2 years ago this is all new business and still adds a mere 2ish usd to the previous share price. 5c extra to the pre-tax eps line coming from the milestone as well. In a market maybe one third the size, Abbott achieved a run rate of roughly half what Takeda sells in a lot less time. Takeda could do better. Maybe this is what the minimum marketing commitment refers to... that is offset by leaving sucampo to pay for its own promotion in the US.
    Seems Par concurred that Sucampo patents are strong... which gives reason think other generic triers will lose. In 2021, Sucampo still has margin room between lower supplier cost and seller margin. Analyst at Maxim basically went from sell to buy on the de-risked outlook. Maybe others to follow?
    Greenhill has done a lot in a short time and is bringing in his own crew.
    Prostone's have a good safety record, could be used a lot more...

  • 250 m in synergies need to be found to pay for it.... which is actually not that much %-wise. That said cfn was already plucked clean for the sale! OMcl should benefit for several years from the disruption, although golden retainers will mean incentives to sell Pyxis this q4 will be high. Long term, where does omcl want to be in this megamergermania?

  • Reply to

    The business case for HA and Anika

    by culleraa Oct 3, 2014 2:23 PM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 7, 2014 8:21 AM Flag

    You are right that HA is more an established market... that means hype will not carry far. It odes mean though that there is a lot of money that can be directed to a better mousetrap if someone comes up with one!
    Anika is growing ex-US ortho business... 2013 US buisness was up some 13% (factor out milestone and optho-delta), same time ex-US was up 9-10% with declining dollar - not much to choose. Critic should be why is Anika not growing other businesses in the USA!
    I think GelSyn proves the point.. no-one will distribute. An Oslo co. boxed an attempt to put a German product in the US this year for that reason. The pathway to the market got easier, but only in principle, it is now non-inferiority to something approved - a typical 510k ploy.
    Q-med went for the beauty market and did well, Anika went for the ortho market - not sooo well yet, but market is bigger and more profitable...maybe for the latter

  • Reply to

    Why?

    by thinkin_bout_lasik Oct 3, 2014 4:14 PM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 3, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    Well, VIX... where we were a week ago.Still, now we have news. He will go at 65, so a normal retirement age. He has been good for Staar but I am sure someone will link the fda letter/TICL delay to this...but all noise in the end. You would normally choose to bow out at the peak not a trough...if you can. Just maybe Board is not allowing him to wait?
    Long process... board will likely wait 6-9m to announce next CEO.More VIX in the meantime!

  • In the event the Company does not meet its financial covenants after October 1, 2014 and SVB does not extend a waiver or forbearance agreement, and the Company believes that it does not have adequate liquidity to operate, it will implement a cost cutting plan that reduces its expenditures to the appropriate level to be in line with its operating cash flows.... don't look good...

  • Some look at just the financials, but I look at the business:

    The HA business is huge: all told, multi-billion blockbuster drug size
    Pipeline within a pipeline: high/low MW, cross-linked or not, as a natural fluid can be easily combined or used as substrate
    Growing demand, repeat business
    Human HA is a natural product, pure HA has little risk and an easy FDA pathway on safety
    RandD investments are low, although manufacturing relatively high investment for non-avian stuff
    Not a generics business, all branded
    Depending on the geography/application, can be very profitable, biotech like profit margins
    Anika is the only way for an investor to get direct exposure to the HA business
    Anika has best distributor in the business
    Acquirer willing to pay high multiple for a solid brand: eg Q-med was bought for some 1.2 billion usd by Galderma, or nearly 10xsales
    Someone else can add the negatives!

  • Hard to figure the stock price swings lately. Filed data show the aq was rather good. Too good to be true actually. 2013 the move would not have made financial sense... so one wonders how hard they (Erb) worked the numbers in Q2 to get bought out! Loss turns to gain at the pre-tax level... although the accountants missed that in the text column!

TMO
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