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Transgenomic Inc. Message Board

culleraa 61 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 27, 2014 3:50 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Distribution Channels

    by neers87 Dec 26, 2014 6:23 AM
    culleraa culleraa Dec 27, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Look at the gross margin: there is none too much to share with a partner at this stage. It's a catch22 game, if they get high volume, there would be, but there ain't! So they have to go it alone. That's USA... they can't afford global direct, so they have partners... but not much margin for either side.. so guess what, no incentive... so no sales. This is not knocking the co. it is just the way the industry works. To succeed, you need big raise on ipo and faithful backers until cash flow. Near 400 m in investment tells they got lazy along the way, so now shareholders are getting diluted just as sales take off (+67% next year consensus). Shame.

  • Goes down on volume.. meaning someone wants out.. a bit more than someone wants in! Needs more trading vol. I guess Quite a few shares+options out now but not so many really floating. More PRs would help.

  • Reply to

    26th Annual Piper Jaffray Healthcare Conference?

    by culleraa Dec 16, 2014 1:21 PM
    culleraa culleraa Dec 16, 2014 2:26 PM Flag

    thx... a useful message board for sure!
    Darn strange, none of the 3 browsers I have show any playbacks on the bdsi site investor pages...

  • Anyone know if there is a link to the replay... co promised one on their site, but at least my browsers do not show....

  • Reply to

    Just in from Seeking Alpha, trenchant insight.

    by hjslojewski Dec 15, 2014 12:40 PM
    culleraa culleraa Dec 15, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    If so, this is a shorts' attack on a flimsy basis?... and orexo is down as well...

  • Seems to be from the numbers... without unusual license sales mentioned. So EV is 3x sales for z-wave alone...

  • Reply to

    iheart interview

    by friendofthetrend Dec 5, 2014 12:13 PM
    culleraa culleraa Dec 5, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    thx for the link!

  • If you can get over the um and um features of this chat, it is quite informative. Confidence is showing through for the first time this fall. In product terms, the most interesting revelation is the program to develop a pain-free laser for veins. That would really be the holy grail in this sector which is still has low penetration: 98% effective and no local anesthesia. ANGO need to grow in a hurry to keep up with deVivo's career path? Needs to add 50% to the stock price before he joins the 1B CEO club!

  • culleraa by culleraa Dec 2, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    Money coming out of the "use it or lose it" budgets.. which might be behind this activity. 1m is xtra sales, if extra, should translate into 3-4 c xtra for the quarter in eps. On top of the other good stuff we are waiting for.

  • Reply to

    "competitor" news

    by culleraa Nov 25, 2014 3:34 PM
    culleraa culleraa Nov 27, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    Quite right... HA sales depend on patient coming back for repeat injections. Hard to imagine they do unless there is a benefit!
    As for the nex-gen stuff, Anika has more shots on goal than any other player. Cross-linked high Dalton HA can be used as a drug carrier "just like" Flexion's particles... all have their own aggregation profiles.. for example.
    Many years ahead for HA-only sales, pay-back time is long. One advantage of a slow FDA process was that the coverage process was ready for a CPT code only a few months later. Seldom so quick for a functionally "me-too" product.

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 25, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    Flexion got its trial put on hold... already infection in small sample. Won't hold the trial up for long, but -ve sign. At Stifel they gave an update of where they are... trialing against saline" placebo", not HA, so they are not so confident! Also highlighting the "erronnous" but obvious conclusion from the natural position of surgeons to object to non-surgical treatments! Unlike HA, steroids have little therapeutic effect although they do, or are supposed to, reduce inflammation. Meanwhile ANika stock is up to a level not seen since the summer fall... let's see if it's got legs...

  • Reply to

    New hire

    by culleraa Nov 20, 2014 3:58 AM
    culleraa culleraa Nov 21, 2014 5:34 AM Flag

    First bit has been right this year... but then you have to realize that "results" need to consider income as well as sales... and at last they are not losing cash anymore, so that's a positive. Sounds to me like they have a plan... but finding executing it not to be straightforward. Looks to me like they have the products they need - although they can always fine-tune them. And maybe it's a positive that the new crowd have a different approach to the old? HArdly amateurs. CG started as a buy today... if only an 11 target.

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 20, 2014 3:58 AM Flag

    It has been obvious for a while that Adept mgmt don't understand their US market... first they said sales were surprisingly strong,then surprisingly soft and then... well not much. SO new blood. This guy hAs the right kind of pedigree, big-company thinking, hopefully locates to where the where the customers are or will be. For warehousing that is unlikely to be S California?

  • On the SEC site. IRE will take forever it seems, but somethings won't: like the tip navigation. And what is so hard on the fluid side?
    The 2020 scenario seems ignore the fact that the EVLT patent expires end 2017 - That settlement to vnus was massive, and seemed to give a whopping 7% royalty. Now that BTG is making noises, good to see the foam get a rebuff here. Looks to me that ultrasound is a hole in the ablation franchise... there's one out there that would be a good tuck in. Better hurry up, too, BTG might come shopping for Ango after all.

  • Reply to

    Redefining the income statement

    by culleraa Nov 19, 2014 4:33 AM
    culleraa culleraa Nov 19, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    My guess is that the listing goes on only if Zack does most or all of the financing--- otherwise he gets diluted. So a tossup, much harder to regain a listing than to keep one.. so he could keep his % ownership in an otc-astea. But he could have done that earlier, too.
    As for the gm, remember the "cash" gm is before the capex D&A.... so it's "really" 45%-ish I believe.

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 19, 2014 6:02 AM Flag

    Top marks for Greenleaf on presentation skills. Story is good, too. Was able to make the case for Amitiza growing without reference to Linzess etc, at least by name. P2 for mucositis could start soon... by end of year? NERD is more interesting but slower to market. 7 yrs on the plan. Geez, these prostones are some of the safest things you can take... so please could someone revolutionize this industry!
    Then there is the RP... a p3 from Japan will be done in 2015. This is basically Rescula... so again no safety issue...
    Pity no one questioned the R-Tech relationship.... only Takeda, which was nicely handled...

  • Redefining what profitability is can be sign of desperation! Astea came up with a new one - bad sign. Still, what is important is that they show investors what they use internally to monitor "progress". Looks better from that - their - point of nonGAAP-view. Real profitability is not far off... maybe losing just 0.6 m a quarter right now: but at the current expense rate that would be covered by some 1.5 m revenue or 6m a year. And even then not actually profitable!
    Therefore the need to explain that they have paid for the sales and r-d work - just not got the customer to start and allow them to recognize. And then there is the urgent need for the min 1.7 m in capital. So no wonder they sound depressed.
    10-q says they will stay in business by cost-cutting if SVB refuses to extend loan. Quite possible after all. I am fairly sure Zack will continue the listing, but at what price? Hopefully the promised customer pr's will help... please name names...

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 14, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    From one that wanted in today. Wasn't an investable co. with that PDL agreement in the background. Assuming all the toxic bits went with the refinancing this has a good chance of making it to break-even on the info we are given. As far as I can see, last q's cash flow was -2 m or so not including ARs. So, if they can grow asap like this the cash will last for 2 years. Then they have the access to 7 m more cash. Seems like the gross interest payments will be similar in 2016+, but several million less in 2015 - which should make the op income (loss) look not so bad for the next 4-6 quarters. After a couple of years it will all look different: 50% growth will mean near 40m in sales and an EV of 80 million... if the share count is not increased.

  • Worth a listen... far more relaxed Omnicell these days. Give the impression that growth is on the out-hospital side. 80% share of the UK blistered meds market they said - which would explain the time the authorities took to approve the take over. Any hint they can get 80% of the US market and you can imagine the panic somewhere else...

  • R-tech's 101 is Not yet licensed to Sucampo.... p2 was a decent result, Safe and significant improvement. But then too was the placebo! Next trial will tell...

TBIO
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