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Natus Medical Inc. Message Board

culleraa 114 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 10:14 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • In hindsight it is clear that the co. actively sold itself to highest bidder... and likely put out the 300 m just as bait. Buyer has no synergy to offer but "expertise". An SAP buyer would have major synergies as well typically 30% of costs. Only when we see the SEC filing will we know. Telling signs are the contract with Moshe... does he get to hang around, with all his options as well.... and the size of the break-up fee.

  • culleraa culleraa May 1, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Has been 0.26 it seems. Actually fairly quick close of 10 wk.. mid-pint July, making over 9% annual on that lowest sale. Plus no trading costs for small sellers if hold til cash... usually!

  • Reply to

    I think investors are tiring of this act

    by biopharm28 Apr 29, 2015 9:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa May 1, 2015 9:17 AM Flag

    Charlie is 68 and had 3% of the co... so he might want out. A sale could double his stake (100% premium!) to 30m. On the other hand he gets 2+ m a year as CEO, so he gets that premium by clocking on for the next five years or so. He is no risk taker... selling Anika stock and diversifying. Anika is his dividend. So I guess he's happy. Said to be quite remote from the business. Blackrock has 10%+ of the co, but there is no activist yet... which is surprising given the Fidia shares which were all sold to the market.End-game is then a few years off.

  • Reply to

    I think investors are tiring of this act

    by biopharm28 Apr 29, 2015 9:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa May 1, 2015 6:33 AM Flag

    Again agreed, I recall the same... laziness made me refer to those quotes. I also recall the CFO calling for 50% HA growth ex-USA for 2014 at one point.. sales actually fell! But recent report says market is growing and JNJ say they are too.... Sanofi isn't:
    According to a report by iData Research, the leading global authority in medical device market research, the U.S. orthopedic biomaterials market is expected to grow to nearly $3.88 billion by 2021. Hyaluronic acid viscosupplementation used in the treatment of osteoarthritis to delay total knee replacement, accounts for the majority of the market growth which is expected to reach nearly a billion dollars by 2017.

    “Sales of single injection hyaluronic acid (HA) products like Gel-One® and Monovisc™ increase as older consumers require more frequent osteoarthritis care,” explains Dr. Kamran Zamanian of iData. “The market is shifting from five injections to three and further to single injection despite a slightly higher average selling price for the latter.”

  • The buyer is rock solid, and yet they are being given an 8% annualized return off of the 12.65. The potential for another bid is tiny but not zero. The active fund here got to Websense which was sold and then flipped at twice the price in a year or so... Service optimization really will be a billion dollar biz one day after all....

  • Click was taken private for 3x revs... would make Astea some 12/share figuring in all prefs and options. An industry buyer can pay more usually.

  • Both doing well, csii doing so well in cardac that focus is not on PA... Also, assumption is that csii is all us... spnc said 14% PA growth overall I believe. Slow quarter 1 overall? PA is more elective than cardiac... ISR even more so.

  • Up 2% in the US, further indicating that the HA market is not shrinking now due to the AOSS, at least anymore. Synvisc sales were down 8% last year, offsetting Mitek and other growth.

  • Reply to

    I think investors are tiring of this act

    by biopharm28 Apr 29, 2015 9:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 30, 2015 7:27 AM Flag

    Well, agreed ... not all though. This one bought what other were selling. Anika did not cite Mitek until Q4 2014. What is also informative is JNJ citing Anika as the source of the growth in their fastest growing device biz. Anika says that was 20%.

  • China must be the biggest ICL shipment market now, given the discounts need due to the multi-layered channels. That means lower margins... but predictable fx, for now, and no end in sight- ha - for demand. No disaster quarter, but cash will be tight if 4 m xtra needed for quality. Said on the call quality kick-off meetings yesterday, about time you might say. No Barriesque score cards anymore... fortunately ...seems with hindsight they drove the company into an fda-corner...

  • The prelim revenues look real bad... of course they can be made to look real bad, real easy... by delaying license deals! Little chance of a competing bid and no chance sh will vote it down. As a near 10 yr shareholder, and one that lost a 10yr-holders major tax break by a few months....I can say 3x sales ain't bad but 4-5x would have been a feather for Mosse's....

  • At the end of the call Sherwood opines that, if approved, Cingal will set a new, higher bar for OA injections. The Cingal results showed 70% reduction in pain... But what he is getting at is that Felxion's steroid has shown 60% at 12 weeks in p2 trials. Earlier that was something to crow about vs HA at 40-50. But, Cingal now extends pain control to 72% at 26 weeks, Flexion say maybe some statistical effect after 12 weeks. Flexion's own slides show little of the steroid stuff left at 20 weeks. Cingal probably has little steroid left either, but it has the HA. The fda precedent is set in the Womac mm gap to saline required for HA approval: which is mean 6 mm... Cingal shows 9 mm, again a new bar. The only real question is how Anika gets this to market. FDA might require another p3 study...but on the PMA route. Worst case, they go the drug route which puts them in the same time frame as Flexion. Today's reaction might be disappointment with no straight acceptance of the PMA. But maybe Sherwood is right and by applying as a viscosupplement, they will agree. Best case there would be an FDA panel, to put the AAOS in their place...

  • Reply to

    Takeover target

    by maximus_prophets Apr 28, 2015 9:42 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 29, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    Fortunately, or unfortunately, the only co. that can acquire Anika is really JNJ. At the moment it is not worth it - JNJ gets the top line anyway... they would just add 25 m in op earnings. That situation changes if it looks like Cingal gets an fda ok .. or even looks like it may!

  • Emphasis on reported... we do not yet know what the market is doing.... except that Monovusc is doing well, and possibly driving down inventories of orthovisc. MArgin and cost lines were really good. Too good, they should invest more in the pipeline!
    Cingal is said to advance, hopefully means FDA responded. Approval will require the follow-up study which looks to be pretty rapid, 6 m or so. Someone on the call might ask what the surgeons' attack on HA might be doing: fact is a 3-4+ course of HA delays TKR from 199 days to 1009 (or nearly 2+ years of their salaries +tips)! Cingal looks to be the best HA so far on the limited data seen in the Anika release,hopefully followup is as positive.. and the fda, too.

  • That was a gene modification technique to modify calcium regulation... which is what lubiprostone's do....suspected causal effect in the gut. Sometimes the older, more natural ways work best...

  • This warning took 300m or so off the market cap... except that it wasn't a warning as such, and anyway half of the projected 7ish m lack of 2016 sales was already seen in the q1.... if the rest of the year holds up, that's kind of like a one-off. For the next 9m , at most guidance suggest just 1m less in sales due to this and that. So, Friday's correction was well overdone, unless investors think another wheel will fall off.

  • Reply to

    Weekly numbers 4/17/15

    by investguy571 Apr 24, 2015 9:13 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 27, 2015 6:57 AM Flag

    Yep. It's alive.Tablet sales look very strong... well off low expectations.Up 11% over earlier week and more than doubled in less than 38 months. Even Rx has doubled over 3 m... and If that continues, Bunavail will outsell Sub early 2018!

  • Need to have the call later, so they get time to get their heads around it. Looking at the constant fx looks like they were some 1.6 m or so short of what one might expect for the quarter. Taking the mid-point of guidance, they might be 3 m or so off for the whole, based on what they thought 3 m ago. So no big deal.
    3m is a short time... which is the issue... earlier more conservative thinking and we would not be hearing all this.... just fx moaning.
    We no longer get the detailed breakdown... and no-one asks about crossing any more, although this was what kept the co afloat 10 yrs ago. Hard to imagine they kept share there given the entrants and their growth. Probably cause of the PA laser growth confusion? All the more reason to get more into therapy.
    How to get csii's growth rates in the US PA market? Last q they sold 60% more in PA and it was mostly the dril.. growing at 20%.Last q looked like spnc laser dispo growth was catching up, not now.
    DCB-BTK looks better than another aq: 25 m or so r&d spend to get into a 150 m market...although that has to be discounted back though.

  • vs. expectations. Sequential sales growth looks ok, until you factor in the SEK rate... not much left. Invidior doesn't report til May....

  • Teva is going to have to work hard to make this pay... hopefully by selling more Amitiza! Even stronger partner now though... and Teva does not have its own med here...

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