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culleraa 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 24, 2015 7:19 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Need to have the call later, so they get time to get their heads around it. Looking at the constant fx looks like they were some 1.6 m or so short of what one might expect for the quarter. Taking the mid-point of guidance, they might be 3 m or so off for the whole, based on what they thought 3 m ago. So no big deal.
    3m is a short time... which is the issue... earlier more conservative thinking and we would not be hearing all this.... just fx moaning.
    We no longer get the detailed breakdown... and no-one asks about crossing any more, although this was what kept the co afloat 10 yrs ago. Hard to imagine they kept share there given the entrants and their growth. Probably cause of the PA laser growth confusion? All the more reason to get more into therapy.
    How to get csii's growth rates in the US PA market? Last q they sold 60% more in PA and it was mostly the dril.. growing at 20%.Last q looked like spnc laser dispo growth was catching up, not now.
    DCB-BTK looks better than another aq: 25 m or so r&d spend to get into a 150 m market...although that has to be discounted back though.

  • vs. expectations. Sequential sales growth looks ok, until you factor in the SEK rate... not much left. Invidior doesn't report til May....

  • Teva is going to have to work hard to make this pay... hopefully by selling more Amitiza! Even stronger partner now though... and Teva does not have its own med here...

  • In the short term this should be a zero-sum game.On paper Ampio lost 250 m of market cap due to "saline" ... the opportunity did not go away, but went elsewhere. Like here. Recent news should have doubled our market cap...

  • Reply to

    Top much better than bottom

    by culleraa Apr 16, 2015 12:49 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 17, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Let's hope we don't look silly!

  • Well again market doesn't care, but Cingal "through" 12 week was -40.2 mm (baseline % missing), which seems to be better than :
    vs:
    At the end of 12 weeks the mean improvement in WOMAC index pain score for patients in the Euflexxa group was 29.9 mm, which translated into an improvement of 62% from baseline. The outcome was statistically similar for patients in the Synvisc group; their average mean improvement in the WOMAC index pain score was 28.4 mm, which translated into an improvement of 55% from baseline.

    Makes no difference if not better vs saline, but it was with a really strong p-value. Note the "through" vs "at",if it really was as good at ONE week.
    And things got better later on the surface at 42.4 and maybe better p at 26 weeks

    The only bad news here is that they did not get a 15 mm difference vs saline on the pain score at 12 weeks... which was I believe what they missed with Monovisc. There is was an endpoint. Not said here. But the 72% seems pretty darned good... though not said what it was for saline...

    A normal stock would react big time on positive results! Dunno if they really miss out details in these PRs on purpose or just sloppy!

  • CEO promised a turnaround, but gave it only on the top line. Then, it has to be sustained... they knew the q1 sales y the time of this call, so their positive mood should reflect a decent q1. Based on the billing mess and a/r write downs the former CFO was not doing his job, so good he's gone, f it did slowdown the biz devleopment.
    Meanwhile, we wait for the ICE COLD to melt ! Worth a double down...if even half true.

  • Market is deaf? I have enough shares already, but for anyone else, this is verbatim from today's cc:
    (This is the second time JnJ have used Anika's trademarks)
    Growth was driven by orthopaedics, cardiovascular care, surgical care and diabetes care partially offset by lower sales in vision care. Competitive pricing dynamics and buying patterns negatively impacted growth for vision care. Orthopaedics sales growth was driven by ORTHOVISC and MONOVISC in Sports Medicine as well as trauma hips and knees partially offset by competitive and pricing challenges in the U.S in spine.

    Growth refers to medical devices segment, so Anika is driving growth there, not the whole of JNJ, yet. Certainly supports Sherwood's assertion of growth even though they cannot allows book sales... seems the sales will be booked, just a question of time...
    text (c) seeking alpha.

  • Reply to

    Baylor Health Care System papers on Verigene out

    by culleraa Apr 13, 2015 1:58 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 14, 2015 6:49 AM Flag

    Beyond me... and as far as I can see nothing really reliable published. These studies cannot show, as many don't, that a new technology lowers mortality or LOS. Even one of the most quoted historic sepsis studies showed the critical response time being more than 45 hr... not less! and a p of 0.05. So what's speed worth? MD is added cost... so not so much on that basis. Perhaps better use of a/bs is a better investment thesis.
    Looks to me like cheaper is better than an hour or two faster... but that's before the marketing!

  • Whole articles are free, so free information. Real life use is never as good as the ideal, but time saved was 19 h. An hour or so faster (with filmarray) is hardly significant when we are talking about avg 25 h from blood draw to optimal a/b dosing. Cost though is an issue.
    Then there is the disinformation: claiming Granahan has 70% of the stock is idiotic... their SEC filing says no such thing.

  • The latest figures look promising. Orexo has been pretty stuck since Jan, stuck after their bump up late last year's contracts. Netting things out you could argue that it looks like Sub and the generics are keeping their customers and bdsi and orexo are getting the new ones... only that bunavail is getting them like 10:1. Quite a story told like that: Bdsi gets 90% of the annual additional market for opioid dependence...

  • culleraa by culleraa Apr 11, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    Seems Medline is serious here... This wound care is not so much big business, as fantastically profitable... as in gross margin. For example, the placenta stuff sells for around 32 dollars a cm2 but costs 3 or so to process. Admittedly, placenta would otherwise be waste, but processing costs... not to mention decellurizing the cow stuff. HA should be cheaper. though two mouths to feed in this distri sales model. But if MEdline sells something, margin should all go to the bottomline. Looking at Mimedx, near 90% of their nice 90% margin gets eaten up by SGA.
    From 2015, CMS is reimbursing the procedure including the skin sub as a package... so being cheaper is going and good enough should get sales there, hospitals use DRGs which favors the cheaper supplier, too. Big market anyway...

  • Promising ad then not delivering is the biggest sin. DeVivo had claimed earlier problems were over, but they weren't. Re-calling one PICC line is not "significant" on an an annual basis, but is on a quarterly one, so hard to figure why this was not communicated earlier. All the other stuff are small individually, but not all together.

  • Reply to

    Two steps down, one back

    by culleraa Feb 9, 2015 6:44 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 9, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Another 5ish% and the 2nd gap closes. Earlier there was another gap down, but let's not get greedy, Shorts have human rights, too?

  • Reply to

    Hyalofast on its way, maybe

    by culleraa Apr 8, 2015 3:38 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 9, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    Well, this is how it works... or is supposed to. The new cells grow and stay while the HA melts away. It's two ops, although whether they are done at same time, no idea. Whatever, it is completely different patient/cost/sell proposition compared to eg Cingal!

  • No shortage of competition here, but Anika has the most clinical evidence by far... though maybe not the best? IF FDa accepts the IDE as it is, it could be the first to the us market... and won't matter too much it may not be the best.
    Histogencis is worth some 130 m, so you'd think the IDE might remind people the cart-franchise has value - seemingly no. Trial will cost of course, maybe 10 this year and 30 next.

  • Reply to

    All-time high today

    by culleraa Apr 8, 2015 10:40 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 8, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Hardly! Only since it looked interesting with the OIC indication on the cards...

  • Took some 8 years, but who's counting! Looks like players want to push this to 1 B market cap. And why not, given the froth. Still only half of the Ironwood mcap.

  • Reply to

    Seller was Castle Union

    by culleraa Mar 13, 2015 11:37 AM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 7, 2015 7:03 AM Flag

    Stock would need to go up 80% or so to get to level where CU started selling. Hard to figure the dump... obviously one reason is that they had to sell something to meet redemptions. They are still a 5% holder, and low volume says prob not selling. Another possibility was to force the co. to act on m&a... by dropping the price, equity issuance is more senseless than otherwise, and most options are worthless. Still, active fund Vertex is supporting the current CEO - they might well be behind the restructuring with an eye to selling a viable company? 500k+ annual costs go with Larry alone!

  • First, of course there is no such thing... since it is chip+software+ part of the things/controllers (stack bit). Intelclaims to do 2 b (only) in chips, cisco , something similar... but a lot of that they would sell anyway. Zigbee is bigger by far, but in the home? not so sure... and it is a standard not a business per se.Then there is nest/thread.
    Nevertheless, Z-wave looks like it is on track to do more than 50 m this year. Seems to be thriving despite the other possibilities.
    Google paid 3 B for the #$%$ company, and not for just the low-margin #$%$s!

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