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iCAD, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 24 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 30, 2015 3:15 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • So they are having their own party... next year. Perhaps they had nothing new to say except oops for the current inv. confs. even if invited?
    Anyways looks Vertex "reserved" all the patients the CF docs had on their roles: so they have to wait for new treatment naive ones to show up. Maybe LCA would have been a better proof of concept? But of course Vertex has validated the immense size of the market in CF so its worth it I guess - not to mention the benefit to patients - if it works. List of programs is long and impressive

  • Biz is well capitalized an look to be in the right place at the right time. But. It's a family affair... sons reports to father who are overseen by the mother. Used to worse... her brother was in the board, too. So, we have a lack of oversight problem

  • 2 months ago CEO said they would find it easy to enroll. Not so. Push back at least 6 m. In bioworld any delay is costly. Luckily the burn rate seems low here... for now. SGA expenses even dropped after the ipo, which you seldom see in the US! Problem here will be lack of interest if there is no news on progress. Now the listers got their money , does not appear to be that much interest on the investor show side, this won't help.... becomes just another barely clinical-stage co.

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 20, 2015 6:41 AM Flag

    I might be the last? If not hope for others... eventually got cash for shares, dated 13.11 but did not see the cash for a few days after...

  • Sales were ok, especially given the fewer elective surgeries in the summer. Better balance of sales as well. Cash position went up 12 m vs 4 m in the previous quarter - co should be self funding for the year. Balance sheet is a moving target - which of course not good... but New product launch likely in 2016 and then the propr. drugs generating news.

  • SO is this cos the FDA wants a 2nd P3 for the adult onset indication... starting that plus the IV would take all the cash in some 6m...hence the need to double the cash position....

  • So here we have an enterprise healthcare it co. with 70% margin selling for an EV of some 1.5x sales. Assuming some growth and guidance of breakeven on the horizon the EV will still be less than 2 after cash burn ends. Growth is the issue of course, it is no longer 25, or 16 but more like 8% for the coming quarter... assuming they get 2ish m from the acquisition. So far they have revealed that only 75% of the biz is what people wanted to believe it was.... so question is: is there still prospect of 25% growth in the 75% bit? If so, we have a fast growing 100 m-sales company in a hot IT sector worth a lot more than the current cap (x2) to another player....

  • Reply to

    R&D ramping now

    by culleraa Nov 4, 2015 4:47 AM
    culleraa culleraa Nov 4, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Actually I have been here since just before the run from 8-9ish... so good timing. Trokendi seems to be very good/needed drug (which was what convinced me to invest), not just well marketed! R&D spend looks rather low to me, but easy to fund if sales hold up. At the moment, the co. is putting 3/4 of the additional sales onto the bottom line. Almost like printing money! If the markets really are 500 m, the cashflow generation will be staggering.

  • In US, scrips up 10% again... maybe more than expected if becoming a new trend.Japanese sales down sequentially a lot, but says little about Rx..... can be down to destocking if Mylan need more of the stuff on hand in the transition. 2016 guidance is still 1+ dollar for eps and sales up nicely. 2015 eps hasn't changed... but then easy to manipulate.

  • culleraa by culleraa Nov 4, 2015 4:47 AM Flag

    I guess what has been left some investors in the potential group has been the ability of the co. to do it all. The guidance suggest that all the op inc. for the q4 will be swallowed by the costs of clinical trials. Earlier it would have been such that the co. would have to dip into the cash to fund them. Supposing growth continues as has for a while then it seems the current product line can sustain the trials? As the the REAL start of the P3 trial, 1st patient dosing may well be in 2016. Anyway, the cashflow from sales allows activity on the m&a front. With a 35% ish op margin on growing sales, without the new drug programs, a run rate of 4 to 5 x sales isn't demanding - as long as the patents hold up and hold back the generics. So then it is the additional value of the 2 new drugs which is still missing from the valuation!

  • Looking better. The rolling 4 wk tells a better story... such that now two weeks in last three Rx up by 0.1% points... to over 1%.

  • Quite a lot it seems. To true up the year to a double digit grower implies 29ish m revenues for the final Q. Add to that the 5m milestone and we might see close to 0.90 eps for the quarter? Analysts have not believed management or JNJ all year, judging by this q3 earnings blow out. This outlook should at least support the price until the FDA comes back on the PMA.

  • Reply to

    Tbio shrinking

    by culleraa Oct 24, 2015 5:09 PM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 28, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    Scenario is exciting... just the wrong way! If those ARs can be collected, LS business is worth something... more so if growth continues...

  • Reply to


    by tmauel Oct 26, 2015 10:30 PM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 28, 2015 7:58 AM Flag

    I used to own this earlier, so now is a chance to evaluate the situation.... so, yes, one competitor less is good. But does nothing to speed up Nellix. Share count will be more like 90 and even after yesterday EV-market cap is still a billion inc debt. They got a 40 m "low-margin" biz. for the dilution, but still a 5xsales EV valuation. SGA spending is horrible in this business even w/out options, now if the reality is to eliminate ALL of the TRIv sending there and allow for higher pricing on products I can see the point, otherwise, not. Or not yet!

  • culleraa by culleraa Oct 24, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    Well, all but the share count! After the summer we appear to be down to the core Lab Services business. Good news is that this is running a record sales and margins of roughly 20 m sales and 55%, if the first 6 m are repeated for the rest of the year. Looking at the lack of margin in the other business, it seems like the net effect of shedding it is roughly 1 m a quarter less expenses: bringing quarterly net loss down to 1.5 m. On the very hopeful assumption all new business goes to bottomline business now need 60% growth to achieve profiaility. Or one-time deals. Cash may now be 4.5 m at end of quarter... so at least a quarter without dilution? But then those ARs keep going up... an if they are all part of the LS biz, now make 50% of sales... insane. With 20 m or so shares now out valuation is less than 1x, which sounds cheap... except for the debt. To take care of that, they really need a deal, cos there's nothing left to divest!

  • CSII is likely behind this new leg down: they have serious issues. Given there added sales in coronary, i would think they are suffering most in PAD. Spnc is more broad-based, but. Both PAD and leads seems to be very dependent on sales pushing: take the foot off the pedal and the sales growth stops - at least in leads. The USB analyst gave a sell and target of 12, which we are below now, largely based on leads. CSii's snafu would be good news to all others in this game inc spnc.

  • q3 forecast + full year forecast implying some 3.5 m or so for q4. Still small of course but 100%+ relative the prior year. That was also +100% on the business with the aq. How many organic 100%-growers out there?!

  • culleraa by culleraa Oct 5, 2015 8:43 AM Flag

    The good news is that it is rated at all! In addition, the short text summary omits that pharma is not really one "US" product when a significant part of earnings comes from non-US. Penetrating the Japanese market was the underlying reason this stock is worth more now than 2yrs ago. RTU will make Amitiza even more local there... and offers a direct channel approach if ever needed. Gross margins should go to normal pharma levels in a few years.

  • Reply to

    Few company's in same sector as WGBS

    by marcingt46 Oct 1, 2015 1:39 AM
    culleraa culleraa Oct 1, 2015 7:05 AM Flag

    True... in absolute numbers. Both Wafer and Fluid are down 65-70% over a year. In terms of momentum it is striking that the business value EV of Fluidigm has dropped 80%, and 90% from its peak.They have 3.5 cash per share.

  • On an eps basis co ranks as below a PE of 20 ... these days a generic valuation (esp an adjusted PE of 14 or so). A lot depends on normalized taxes of course... More so, adjusted profit margin is 60% or so... and since no direct sales costs, it will go up % wise as sales go up (US, EU etc).... even though RTU has been flat in dollar-terms. IF they get the debt sold, they still have cash for acquisitions, so as many expect... there might be something else in the works too!

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