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iCAD, Inc. Message Board

culleraa 53 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Just spin-off Z-wave to us shareholders

    by culleraa Aug 28, 2014 2:46 PM
    culleraa culleraa 18 hours ago Flag

    No-one is faultless, but if you remember the 4m share sales in 2007 for some 200m, brilliant timing - for the company. Z-wave would do better faster owned by another part of the m2m foodchain. But how to get from here to there so shareholders do not lose out: ipo it as a spin-off.

  • Now how many years have I been calling for that... timing though would be great right now.

  • Sapiens’s CEO, just bought by MEdtronic, is Jan Keltjens. Just over a year ago, as CEO of Endosense, Mr Keltjens oversaw the catheter company’s sale to St. Jude Medical for $170m... AND WE FIRED THE GUY on the first bump! (seemed fight at the time ha ha )
    Before Ango he got a firm bought out, too.

  • A decade ago we were at 17 odd per share... based on eps growth. When the cEO retired, one thing went wrong after another! The Siemens guy went on an acquisition spree which brought the radar and what is now the "SaaS" side. Radar has been a flop... which led to his sacking by the Board. The Board's man Tufto, has made/allowed things even worse... and lost most of the cash.
    Still, oddly after 10yrs, mis-management, the share count is only 30% higher - mostly for the radar acquisition. Organic revenues might be up some 50% over 10 years and they still are debt free. Even operating costs have been squeezed down to similar levels a decade ago. Gross margins, though are not. Co. has explained that one big factor has been new product teething problems which need to work their way through COGS... Taken on faith, that means they are already "pro-forma" proitable after the cost-cutting. Biggest US problem though has I guess been measly state and federal funding for road and traffic infra.
    A lot to fix, and the Poland issue has to go away, but even without the momo interest, some return to normality, like a 2xrevenue stock price: and that would be 9 a share.

  • Reply to

    The good and bad news

    by culleraa Aug 26, 2014 4:41 AM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 27, 2014 7:10 AM Flag

    So, net-net this was no news. Stock price back to where it was a week ago. Seemingly analysts had downgrade the stock , I hadn't noticed!, but now upgraded again... Go figure... Not long til next earnings

  • Reply to

    Sherwood at CG conf...

    by culleraa Aug 19, 2014 7:01 AM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 27, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    Well for the quarter, US sales were up 22% without royalty. Most of the US sales, 80%+, have to be ortho. Since most other segments are down, globally but mostly US, I guess US sales ortho are up even more than 22%.
    Above real growth might be more or less depending on inventory at Mitek, I doubt Hyalofast or their other stuff is significant.. Analysts can only tell one story per stock and this is it for Anika!
    This 22%, and I guess more, growth supports his statement on Monovisc adding...despite no own code. I can't see the docs going to the trouble of changing from orthovisc unless the patient demands. So, m-visc could well be going to new accounts.... The bull case is that Mitek will drive monovisc to take share in the 1-shot accounts where Synovisc one is. Then we get two growth markets. Depends on how clever or greedy Mitek are as to whether they see the possibility to double the franchise. So far, so good.
    As for Fidia... who knows. The idea was to go direct in the US with these "old" products to fill the monovisc bag, which, luckily did not happen! By paying 34 m they insource R/D for the next gen regenerative stuff in 2009 or so. To early to know is this was good or bad, but at least was risk management in r/D. For sales, did squat in Europe... but then we have the euro mess to blame there in Italy.

  • Connection is weak, but who cares. Taser wave lifts all boats...

  • Well, for #1 everyone else close to the co.new these now historic numbers quite a while ago.... which is why we were down earlier. Analysts had not reacted though...
    The lowish revenues really were due to the US: less than 2m in the Q, and half that likely service from earlier sales. Tone here is opposite of what was said just 3 m ago: indicating mgmt is out of touch with its US market! Did new mgmt #$%$ of the old salesforce? Too many channel changes at once?? Who knows, but at least sales success elsewhere suggests the technology is not the issue.
    Many are here because of mobile... still the open opportunity they say... but this time mgmt declined to put a % no. on the Q4 sales. Last Q they did: saying 16%.... so mobile is not yet a 10 m business. Maybe this year?

  • Reply to

    DEA moves hydrocodone combos to Schedule II

    by mending87 Aug 22, 2014 7:18 AM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 25, 2014 9:10 AM Flag

    Good news for bdsi investors anyway! Maybe puts pressure on another govt agency to plug the gap swiftly and legally. Watched the Cramer video: makes Sirgo sound very respectable...but with only 581 views, the stock is still fairly unknown?

  • culleraa by culleraa Aug 25, 2014 8:53 AM Flag

    Guidance implies it is a 20 m/year business.... if the 3c is after tax then it is an approx 9% return on the investment. Technically a bit of a wash, but much better than having 12 m idle cash on b/s. Up?

  • CEO promising A truly global and fully integrated Co. sounded like a plan to merge with R-Tech! Not so, he then explains. R-Tech numbers for amitiza have been stellar... +70% or so for years: but that was in yen and also price increases on top. So much so that R-Tech has now a 66ish% margin, Abbott/Takeda probably the same and Sucampo now 50ish%. Add to those the contract manufacturer. See-through margin on all this is likely to be the "normal" 95% or so. Look out then for generics attack! R-Tech sales are down a lot but this is due to the change of prostone supplier - they keep the 8-9% growth annually. Analysts have a hard time reconciling low US scrip growth with higher royalty payments, but passed-on price increases are likely the cause. In future, increases will be only due the scrips. ie modest? Still, at least we do not hear the inventory excuse like at Ironwood. DTC and other co-marketing is profitless growth... but then again that's the Ironwood story.Makes sense if the patients stick on the scrips afterwards of course.
    New pricing deal with R-tech shows Greenleaf is in control of Sucampo, so at least a start.

  • Priced at 11. Cash was used for a seemingly useful acquisition, although buying one's distri channel is not normally something to applaud. De-risks the skin market a lot though. The CAd market is finally coming back. Which only leaves breast IORT as the problem child. That' s the no. 1 attention grabber... and the usual long play. No question now that they have the cash to wait it out. At 3x sales this is a nice valuation. If it looks like they can get organic growth to settle at 20%+ with profitability then a double from here: or a near 10-fold return of the nadir!

  • Reply to

    Fuzzy figures cloud comparisons with Biofire

    by culleraa Aug 19, 2014 2:25 PM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 20, 2014 4:37 AM Flag

    Exactly. Losing a million instrument revenue off of 1.5 m budget is plain silly. Coming after 7-8 years in charge of sales or marketing at Nanosphere + over a year as CEO, one might think Garrity has a plan that works. But not yet.
    Clouding the real metrics of the business is no service to retail investors... even if the strings are pulled by Lurie and Aspire who likely know the real data. Most investors don't expect profits now or even soon... but do expect dilution at ever higher stock prices, and that requires trust in the numbers and a competent CEO and head of sales.

  • Director traded (bought) some 10 days before close of quarter. So, should not be a bad one! Sonacare has Misonix's former HIFU device up for FDA panel in Oct. Although a different panel shot Edap down, it might be because they prefer this one! Not the technology, but the IFU.... CEO Klein has some respect due to Xoft...
    If panel says yes, Misonix will eventually get the rest of the 5 m owed on the sale.... Earlier they also had the rights to manufacture the Sonablate, although not mentioned lately. Something to tell on the CC?

  • approx 6month 2014 numbers given for Biofire - 150 - are likely to be "sales"... the usual way, bought or leased or packaged.... and maybe in use. For Nanosphere, they give customer placements, which equate, they say, to 300 processors over same period. Placements seem to be contract placements, more like pre-sales. More useful to know would be customers ordering tests for routine use for the first time!
    Still, at least they now gave consumable sales which were 2.2 m. If the 50K per customer is mixed with the 3.5 instruments per customer - and assuming minimal resp and gram neg test sales - that implies they have 150 units in "full-time equivalent use" TOTAL.
    Interestingly, the recorded sales of instruments in q2 2014 and 2013 were 0.5 m vs 0.8 m. Placements were almost the same... so go figure the price/units/placement?

  • Reply to

    Management has small vision

    by gjcarlson Aug 13, 2014 5:25 PM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 19, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    Small margins is the real issue here... not growth per se. Their margins are 40% which is generic oem-level. Yet they sell mostly now foresight and direct in the usa and their margins on the equipment should be 60 and the probes 80....
    Before Elite margins were worse! I doubt the old Somanetics has a blended margin of less than 70%.

  • Much more informative talk than usually given! At the end describes Monovisc launch. He says exceeded his expectations and sales past 5m mark (must be end-user of course). Emphasizes no loss of GROWTH in orthovisc sales, contrary to his own expectations. As we have read, JJ is trying to get synergies from Synthes, and explains Sherwoods claim that inventory changes there explain slower growth in sales vs market share. Also he says Mitek carry no monovisc inventory.... docs want cash collection proven before ordering and it goes down the chain. Latter comments support my view that inv build at anika tells us nothing much yet, inventory has to be held somewhere, after a certain point - I assume it is now more at Anika than before. If the monovisc talk is true, getting the specific CMS code in Nov is key for 2015 expectations. Then again, a sceptic would say that only then will monovisc eat at orthovisc growth!

  • culleraa by culleraa Aug 18, 2014 5:00 AM Flag

    With the real estate deal off the table (asking price is anymore marginally above book value) for now, one has to look elsewhere... The services businesses are no longer bleeding the company dry, but the leverage is in the Culex. As revenues have declined and as the shares warrants and option come into play the equity value of the company means it is no longer dirt cheap.

  • Reply to

    BOD remain:"increase" dismal

    by stockpriker Aug 13, 2014 8:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 18, 2014 3:55 AM Flag

    How time flies... taking from their investor presi in May: backlog was "this good" in 2005.... lower actually... 9 years ago. Stock price was 120 dollars... each share... post-split of course!
    Revenues were then 15.7 m and declining. Now we are at 7 with numbers not declining.
    So what's up? Since we are now given un-audited numbers, we can't be sure how backlog is re-calculated: but the issue for the stock price to move is turning that into sales. I suspect the sales don't move because the CROs now sit in-between and add/delete the backlog without projects actually getting into real trials?

  • Reply to

    TOA

    by aricdj Jul 31, 2014 9:57 AM
    culleraa culleraa Aug 14, 2014 6:40 AM Flag

    Interestingly little analysis in the past 2 weeks or so! One observer thinks Oracle was just getting at Salesforce. Moshe has been touting the Sales force angle lately. SO, good news there.... all new biz that might have gone to TOA will likely now be directed to Click. Given the lack of news Oracle maybe did not pay such a bundle for TOA, but a fair amount if the the fund that put in 66 m recently had to be enticed to sell out so soon... 300 m or so?

ICAD
10.55-0.02(-0.19%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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