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Special Diversified Opportunities Inc. Message Board

culleraa 289 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 22, 2014 10:14 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Reply to


    by rontron2000 Apr 21, 2014 1:44 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 22, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    So, which idiots are NOT buying at this price? Is the market really THIS inefficient??

  • Values allergan at some 7x sales. But Allergan sales "only" growing at 8% or so. If in doubt, add botox. Staar IS at a lofty 9x sales or so but 2xAllergan growth makes valuation a wash after 3 or so years. Allergan's op margin of 30%... which would be 40% or so after synergies is in a different league of course..

  • culleraa culleraa Apr 16, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    Well, they just hired the guy over at CG. Now why pick on us? Even at the target price and fully diluted, the market cap is barely worth it!

  • to 33 a piece. Another upgrade in a week

  • Over at ISRG things are looking down... especially for prostate says the Street. Somewhere else a little co called axogen has a vision it can fix cut nerves with bits of nerve cut out of dead old bodies afterwards. There's got to be a better way....
    Also, could we have an update on how we see the EVLT prospects now that there is a new foam in town?

  • Using Drake's own figures their mkt share peaked at close to 70% or so... and is now down below 60%... assuming mkt growth. So, no question there. More interesting question is can they do mechanical as well as Cook (without patent issues)? If so, it will be Cook that loses out next year, as they will not have a laser.... assuming a laser is useful in a lot of cases. Expanding salesfores is always tricky, in this case they added 50% feet. sounds great but it means per sales rep same sales+10% is from a much smaller "territory". Drake is paid to make sure the transition is managed well. Made strategic sense to do it now before the salesbag becomes twice as full... but tactical setback. Like the opportunistic poster guesses, losing salespeople would be bad news, but we don't know that. Drake says he has hired 20 good ones.
    Confidence might come for the fact that they knew the issues, and risks just sometimes realize: "We look forward to growth in the sales force expansion, but we are planning on some short-term disruption, which is inherent to the process. This was anticipated prior to the expansion due to new people, training and changes in account responsibilities." Soon we will know if they are easily fixed!

  • If this was a surprise, they are paid to know better! Cook would seem to be doing better... and investing a lot in this area. Recently, lead sales growth has been coming too much from just higher price on glidelight, so there was a warning of sorts. New guidance shaves 10% or so off predictions for lead sales growth: to flat, at best. Good news is that added sales from new mechanical products is not factored in. Now to make sure the ISR indication xtra sales match the talk!

  • Not quite billions, but a lot... maybe some finds its way over here! The Questcor biz model is what is, and I passed. Lesson i suppose is not to look a giftpig in the mouth...

  • The total global market cap attributable to "insulin" is some 100-150 Busd. Half or so here at Novo.... and growing. This gross market cap can be argued to be a zero-sum game though... and today a noticeable part will transfer to inhaled insulin. Novo has most to lose... even when successful, inhaled insulin will not affect sales of injected for years and years... but it's the growth in injected sales that supports the market cap. So what will Novo now do...

  • Reply to

    Zack will explain Q4 only when he knows Q1!

    by culleraa Mar 27, 2014 4:18 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 1, 2014 6:12 AM Flag

    At time of call. they know q1 deals that closed... after horrible q4. Not surprisingly now almost promising a good H1 and profitability during the year. Why? Based on strongest pipeline in recent history - and some clients choosing hosted (give a big enough discount and they will!). So says CFO, not Zack, which is more credible! If not fully credible. Offsetting that is getting delisting notice. So at least 2 buying opportunities coming along...seemingly one this a.m.

  • Reply to

    Where to now?

    by ltupordown Mar 31, 2014 5:38 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 1, 2014 4:10 AM Flag

    Well, Zack put up another million March 27 and extended the loan... so show continues. No going-concern despite negative working capital! Loss is worse than it looks due to higher r&d capitalization.. higher than normal. Depr. of same is probably reason for shitty gross margin on software sales. Disturbing that they lost so much biz in the US... despite having the partners we waited for.

  • ... which should not be a surprise. The rescula farce was quite obvious to the analysts at the time. Still, that is offset by the success of the Amitiza launch in Japan. Sucampo could well earn 25 m from Amitiza sales for Japan. Worth 20..25 c per share pre-tax for the year. The rescula “scam” cost 13c… but at least that’s in the past…

    Ueno +co own chunks of these companies, so in their interest to make sure all prosper. Share weakness maybe due to Cantor being allowed to buy shares (15 or so m left of the 20musd limit at end of 2013 year). Or maybe something in Japan due to manufacturing issues .. or then the usual legal stuff...

  • Price is same now as end of last year, so Q4 was likely to be as bad as Zack's quarters usually have been. q1 is usually weak, too - unless our delay here is because a deal "slipped". That way we get an average of nothing. Still, we are in this for the future - so let's wait.... and hear

  • When/if fda grants. So news is baked in. And, one could argue, it's the same stuff as yesterday anyway. True, but docs will not go and have to look for these patients... they come back to them... and often the docs get paid to fix old mistakes. I expect marketing will make a bigger dollar difference in this market than the de-novo patient. Then there is the likelihood that spnc will help docs push for better reimbursement for isr.. not for the device, but for the whole dX-Tx procedure .. which will then feed thru as demand.

  • Reply to

    Staa best kept secret

    by mhat_me Mar 25, 2014 10:22 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 26, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Or just forgotten. Last 52 weeks is mirror image of times past. Back in 1999.. when the share price was similar to today, the CEO at the time said he thought 50/shr a proper valuation!
    In market cap that is what we have today: shares have suffered factor 2.5 or +150% inflation. Add to that hoped valuation the time-value of waiting 15 yrs and NET risk-reduction over that time.

  • Reply to


    by mhat_me Mar 24, 2014 10:57 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 25, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Late to our party... doubt it. Sea-change in opinion over last 3 m, now lowest target is 20... except for maybe our Suuz

  • Reply to

    Value of eschar debridement alone is 350m?

    by culleraa Mar 21, 2014 9:17 AM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 21, 2014 9:50 AM Flag

    Depends on wound size clearly! One published study said 3-20 min.

  • Look at MDWD. That's 10x what MSON has in market cap... for all u-sonic products. Co. itself says the market is 400 m total, as does mson.. for the total debridement market. Nexobrid needs 4 hrs to work, Sonic-one the time of treatment.

  • culleraa culleraa Mar 20, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    Don't confuse basis points with percentage points :)
    Stick with your BioMerieux... I prefer 100%+ growth prospect to 100-200 basis points...

  • At least in buying stock... and stock is up quite a bit. Market cap is 4x nsph. Baccel aims to do "what we do" but without the culture phase. They do not save as much time as they like to think since they say it needs 7 hrs .. or a full shift/overnight vs culture + a few hours. Culture time is not 2-3 days in all cases either... in fact culture time is itself a a diagnostic tool. BUT insiders over there really seem to believe in their project!
    Maybe management address this competition today

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