No idea. Reason for latest drop is obvious. however, methinks Asian factories toolup late summer for the end of year demand, so a normal q2 might be followed by a good q3.
Well, i was thinking a new ATH was on the cards 2 months ago. Nothing changed in the meantime. Well, a bit more progress on Cingal ex-USA. Competition not done well. Maybe folks think FDA will reply to Anika by summer?
Well, comentators say that it was a closed deal, so +70% offered to keep out all but serious bidders. BUT if someone else is interested it is not just 10% more, it is more like 100% more....so 60?
Chatter says Jazz tried ot bid for aspx ... but could only raise 3b... so lost to teva. If this is known, could be the players force jazz to max out. Logic is that that keeps Jazz away from other deals. If they get us on the cheap, the reverse happens.. firepower just gets better.
No question the BUSINESS is on the cusp of being a decent one, maybe a good one. The financials are horrible. I want to invest but not as an unpreferred shareholder! SP trend is interesing...
Good observation. I think cpxx will get another bidder, market thinks so too. Could be that teva doubles the jazz bid. Then jazz can walk away with breakup fee and buy us... eventually!
Looks to me like the full share count will be 27 m + the 8,6 from the prefered + the 3.7 m options/w... making 40 m fully diluted. Cash from op/w will pay off the 5.6 accrued dividend... at least what it was last year. Real EV is this already 80m and Foresight sales are 15, maybe 17 this year. So valuation is already some 5x sales, given other stuff is not worth much. Add to that they need to raise cash again, hence the Zack/ROth piece?
Hardly any arb margin left... sign of another bid expectation. Who wants to leave value to Jazz. A heavyweight player can do a lot more a lot faster in the AML space than Jazz....
Not if, but when... and based on jazz kind of multiple. Plafrom might add much more.
Now we are in play. If Jazz sp does not go down, means we will look attractive to another bid. Of course 8 billion needs to be discounted back to today but still, 1.5 b is cheap once in play. I say 3 b, or goes for 60 a share!
60c with these numbers says no capsize yet. Wasn't the plan, but this has become a binary event company: either they get these deals they still promise in the next 30 days or so - and they are large - or they will hardly get financed again at any sensible level. Given indication of 5-6 m annual running costs, breakeven is not far-fetched. But first they need to become solvent! "investors" think Trovagene is worth 400x revenues on EV basis at earlier stage... and at 30 m/spend per year ... go figure. One thing to hope for is that Trovagene is not their signalled partner!!
Well not much:
U.S. patents: 3 issued; none pending; expirations ranging from 2018 to 2023
Can't see how the drug could be on the US market before 2020. Maybe they get the +5 yrs. But if only for 3-line, may noot be repeated if they try for 1 -line use.
Hmm, not sure why VSCi was worth 40% of combination... sure it had 40% of sales but 20% of the gross margin. Debt, no cash... and now they control the whole deal!
Sentiment ok, but latest SEC filing gives:
17,700,000 with an exercise price of $1.44
So, unless another bid, not much more than 1.44 per share in best case. Warrant holders will take some 40%+ of any extra over 1.44
Unless stock price gets to 1.44, some 23 m warrants are worthless. Warrants bring in some 35 m cash if all the 1.44s get to have any value at all. After 1.44 warrant holders start to get nearly 50% of any extra cash consideration paid. So there is an incentive from w-holders to keep down net costs while trying to get the sales. Even more incentive to get another bidder. at this 50 m cash bid, warrents are worths a few cents... but with a bid of some 100 m they seem to be worth nearly a dollar! Walk away fee is only 2 m
Some half a billion in "expenses" using the balance sheet... turned into "capital" of 58 m... Common shareholders getting only some 1 in 4 of the dollars being paid. Biofire example shows simliar 1/10 of possibiity... Lessons to learn!
Spnc and csii suffer from DCBs eating into their PAD revenues... or at least some of the growth. Over at Atricure, where Drake is on the board, we can see that fear of catheter aortic and then mitral valve replacement is eating at open heart procedure where the Atricure clips aetc are mostly used. In both cases stocks down 50%. At least spnc has a good plan B.