Anyone know the "story" behind how bdsi got the TN contract? Maybe it was told, I just can't remember..
Anyways looking at the slides for TN, showing Rx are down and likely staying down... would be helpful to know if the docs still have the same number of patients AND the same patients! Which would kind of prove that some 60% of Suboxone is being diverted.
Bad news is that Bunavail made a 1B market into a 1B market. Making the 15% or whatever target half the size it was. The better news is for the rest of folks including tax payers.
Milestone provided "only" 11c of the eps. Numbers look terrific... which invites some caution. Sales of Amitiza in Japan seem to be up 60% year on year, but down to some 5% in Q4. Hard to forecast that... esp as market for easy sales shrinks? US market growth continues, but then Linzess grows faster! Linzess scrips exceeded Amitiza now. Still that has been the story all along, and Sucampo has a better earnings model. Anyaways result means that 2016 eps is quite credible, even with higher r&d spend. Ebitda of 8x and P/E of 14 for a pharma co. is cheap... although PE is pre-tax.
Yeah, well as you well know the "gold standard" referred to is the routine susceptibility testing after culture turns positive/neg. All new methods need a common comparison. With pretty much unlimited resources compared to nsph biofire is unsurprisingly ahead time-wise...but we are talking
Key news on the call was that they got to draw down the 5m loan. That keeps the co. afloat til end of the year, with cash on hand for another quarter losses. A big IF, but if the co. is to be believed the fda path will not be typical for a follow on 510k, so not just fast but cheap. So far it has taken 450 m to get this far and a bit unlucky to say the least that only another 10% more cash burn and profitability would be in sight at current growth rate. Today's release is the kind of marketing needed... and compares verigene to the gold standard as it should. For nsph to survive on the stock market it needs to get the stock well over a buck and raise cash , of course.
Your research proved right. I commented quite some time ago that Staar was "a China play" for investors. Well, now the industrial growth has gone negative, no-one cares about China plays. But they will again one day!
So far, sales and marketing execution has been flawless... so if they can get an asset at a reasonable price they can apply the same skills to it would be a good use of the balance sheet while we wait for the new drugs to be launched. which is a long time!