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Special Diversified Opportunities Inc. Message Board

culleraa 121 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 12:43 PM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Not been mentioned here yet?, But according to Biomerieux, Biofire sales were some 100 m usd in 2014. Previously, they were given as 70 m for 2013, so growth of 43%. Nsph achieved growth of 43%, too. So, even with "unlimited" financial support not growing any faster! ... says something....
    Of course 7x bigger, inc. all lines, which gives scale...

  • Whole articles are free, so free information. Real life use is never as good as the ideal, but time saved was 19 h. An hour or so faster (with filmarray) is hardly significant when we are talking about avg 25 h from blood draw to optimal a/b dosing. Cost though is an issue.
    Then there is the disinformation: claiming Granahan has 70% of the stock is idiotic... their SEC filing says no such thing.

  • Reply to

    Baylor Health Care System papers on Verigene out

    by culleraa Apr 13, 2015 1:58 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 14, 2015 6:49 AM Flag

    Beyond me... and as far as I can see nothing really reliable published. These studies cannot show, as many don't, that a new technology lowers mortality or LOS. Even one of the most quoted historic sepsis studies showed the critical response time being more than 45 hr... not less! and a p of 0.05. So what's speed worth? MD is added cost... so not so much on that basis. Perhaps better use of a/bs is a better investment thesis.
    Looks to me like cheaper is better than an hour or two faster... but that's before the marketing!

  • Got fleas, but can still bite!

  • And hopefully, born out. But this division of patients into responders or not without a marker raises the question of whether it is sound or not. If the results do not fit a normal "bell curve" but really show two very distinct groups, that's fine... but with just 15 patients what can one expect! Assuming the non-responders actually showed the same disease progression as non-treated patients do, then the effect is diluted to 22% or so... and not significant... or to be more accurate not with this sample size. Hopefully, we get to see all individual patient results in the coming presentation.
    Neglecting the random effects of small sample size, the overall results are still good. If they can rationalize and prove a biomarker for response, looking at the lung function results, the treatment is a stunning success!
    That average ALS sufferers would lose 65% of distal muscle strength in just 9 m is just tragic. The possibility to reduce that to just 7% will knock down every barrier the FDA might put up.

  • Which was 2 m, and not even in cash. Everything else was conditional. Shareholders have paid out maybe some 30 m on top.
    On reflection, nothing went well in this P3 trial. The original premise was that the stuff worked well in a responder group to the tune of a p of 0.01. On a slightly bigger population the first, but slightly bigger 70 cohort did not come close, at p of 0.16. Naturally, a few different patient responses could have easily changed that p-value result - but the point is either way!
    The absolute worst news in this was that the last part of the trial showed how the stuff acts in the real world: it doesn't help at all.
    So, I'd agree with others and that last analyst... return Clonidine to Arcion - and Finn can follow...
    The longer they wait, the longer it will take "the market" to forgive!

  • This is due to the ability to fund the growth with debt. That, in turn, is down to the eventual some 30% dilution we got form the stock +warrrants. That is like 50 m shares at the price.So good news and bad news. Better news was the sequential growth, as well as annual growth. Absolute gross margin increased 68% year over, which is higher than the 50% I previously suggested is needed for excitement.. That said, pretty much same as q4... so we need to see more improvement. So no bk coming, they can fund next gen and market cap some 35... 40 m ... depending on calc... compare that to peers at 10x... 100x.

  • The latest figures look promising. Orexo has been pretty stuck since Jan, stuck after their bump up late last year's contracts. Netting things out you could argue that it looks like Sub and the generics are keeping their customers and bdsi and orexo are getting the new ones... only that bunavail is getting them like 10:1. Quite a story told like that: Bdsi gets 90% of the annual additional market for opioid dependence...

  • With engineering and maufac. in usd and sales mostly not, this could have been pretty bad. It was ok, sort of. Strategy is on track--- just sales aren't in the USA. Since we can guess Hale are in this for a buyout, it is the mobile that will interest a buyer... so it is good that this is now worth talking about %-sales wise. But market will not wait forever...

  • Up 33% in 3 months... due to convertible debt going to shares. share count is up, too... but only 4%. This gives a safe basis for doing the deal, whatever it is. Rx up 11% q-q supports the 50% rev. growth goal - just.

  • Well, yes and no. Looking at the timelines, it might be all planned. Tested here out on the quality committee and they think she will be able handle it. So, I suppose the good news is that there is no waiting period - she has basically been doing the job - or most of it - for months. Bad news is that she is not from the refractory "industry", if at least medical. Still the COB is an old LASIK hand.. And maybe she isn't planning on being around for long either, has retired at least once already!

  • First, of course there is no such thing... since it is chip+software+ part of the things/controllers (stack bit). Intelclaims to do 2 b (only) in chips, cisco , something similar... but a lot of that they would sell anyway. Zigbee is bigger by far, but in the home? not so sure... and it is a standard not a business per se.Then there is nest/thread.
    Nevertheless, Z-wave looks like it is on track to do more than 50 m this year. Seems to be thriving despite the other possibilities.
    Google paid 3 B for the #$%$ company, and not for just the low-margin #$%$s!

  • vs. expectations. Sequential sales growth looks ok, until you factor in the SEK rate... not much left. Invidior doesn't report til May....

  • This warning took 300m or so off the market cap... except that it wasn't a warning as such, and anyway half of the projected 7ish m lack of 2016 sales was already seen in the q1.... if the rest of the year holds up, that's kind of like a one-off. For the next 9m , at most guidance suggest just 1m less in sales due to this and that. So, Friday's correction was well overdone, unless investors think another wheel will fall off.

  • Reply to

    I think investors are tiring of this act

    by biopharm28 Apr 29, 2015 9:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa Apr 30, 2015 7:27 AM Flag

    Well, agreed ... not all though. This one bought what other were selling. Anika did not cite Mitek until Q4 2014. What is also informative is JNJ citing Anika as the source of the growth in their fastest growing device biz. Anika says that was 20%.

  • Reply to

    NSPH becomes investable again

    by culleraa May 12, 2015 8:49 AM
    culleraa culleraa May 12, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    In the interests of whatever... Like I wrote "pretty much same as q4" and not, as I wrote in a hurry, also "sequential growth".Since there wasn't... Not that a 100k here or there is the issue: THE issue for a few years has been the earlier lack of foresight to raise cash... so the co. has been going from one little runway to the next. Older shareholders now have 72% of the stock if the warrants convert. And there's no way to sugarcoat the fact that this dilution got only a max of 8.8 m cash... but access to 20+ m extra net debt financing should be good for the rest of the year.

  • Reply to

    JNJ's Gorsky's comments on Anika

    by culleraa Mar 2, 2015 1:11 PM
    culleraa culleraa Mar 3, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    On the Q4-end of year JNJ conf call. Transcript is on the SA site. Monovisc is like 0.0000000001% of JNJ sales, so it is interesting he mentions it. To get the analyst crowd used to the names before he buys them all?!

  • No analyst publicly follows Anika right now, so Sherwood revelations might be a shock! Dunno why he only does Canacord Genuity! They aren't that interested in Anika.,w e don't need a cash raise.

  • Well, if it has/ had a patient benefit. We all like medians because you have to wait a helluva long time for an average number, especially if the drug works well. Based on very limited info and knowledge, looks like they had quite a few outliers in the asonep trial... which might indicate a divergence... ie there is a responder sub-group.... anyways result does not much affect the intrinsic potential value of the co, yet.
    got the 10k bit right though...

  • My guess, can't have an "earnings" call can they!

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