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Special Diversified Opportunities Inc. Message Board

culleraa 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 7:03 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • culleraa by culleraa Jun 3, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    So it will be back to square one, for a while at least. Q2 will have at least 2 months of ok sales, so we will not see full effect of the loss of high reimbursement until q3, when sales will be around 6m-7m. Q2 eps will have the restructuring in there. The q3 GAAP earnings will look bad as the guidance of close to breakeven refers to EBITDA .. where there is a 2m or so swing there... assuming the 500k interest goes away with the debt payoff. Given the possibility of a CMS code in November, it is unlikely that they will write off the gear they now havehanging around just yet, nor the goodwill etc.
    Given the growing core software business has some 20 m of annual revenues with 85% gross margins and theoretically very profitable, the stock price should not be this low. They didn't pay much for the Axxent businesses in cash terms and as long as they can cost manage them tightly they are just an upside option at this point.

  • Dilution is less than 10%.. Cash buffer for quite some time, although they really would not need it if the inventory was lower... and the ARs... Now with cash at an ok price, mobile orders and more distribution... things might go better ,,,, next year!

  • Unusual, but not unique... time value of money would say a few cents at least. If it goes above, someone smells another offer?

  • Not much, but number moved the needle by 0,01% to 0.59% market share.Zubsolv appears to have peaked at 5.5% ish market share, unless they are able to come up with some new tricks. One might be aggressive discounting....

  • Reply to

    Interesting 13D/A

    by mhat_me Jun 2, 2015 6:35 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jun 6, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    Hmm: "growing concerns regarding the ... Board's ability to effectively represent shareholders. Odd that if you have 20%+ shares you need to make a public filing just to change the BOD? especially if you know many other shareholders want a change, too. Sounds like the BOD has had an offer.... they said NO or not now ... the "bidder" went to the major shareholders who think at least maybe... and need a pliant Board just to get to the next step. Point being that bidder can always go hostile, but doesn't want to, or even need to, if Board plays along.

  • For marketing anyways. Numbers are so small that "success" seems to go from 5 to 8 out of 12 patients. Single-arm study has its disadvantages. I guess the three would be happy though. Looks like pr "leak" caused the vol spike yesterday?

  • Analysts lining up to ask questions. Hasn't been a feature of a Sigma call for 5 yrs or so! Factoring back the cash Sigma is/was trading at 1x sales... which allows for a bullish call. Old Broadcom is back in favor with a 3.5ish valuation which would put Sigma on 20 or so. Broadcom makes money though, and for signa to do that it would need to double sales. That's not going to happen until all divisions contribute to growth. But watch out if they do. Meanwhile i Would expect a target of 15 from someone soon.
    Meawnwhile Zwave rockets up. At a run-rate of 50m revenues, that would equate to an IPO of the entire current Sigma valuation... and maybe then some.

  • Reply to

    Interesting 13D/A

    by mhat_me Jun 2, 2015 6:35 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jun 10, 2015 8:54 AM Flag

    Quite so. And looks bad when things did not pan out as they hoped. Some bad luck, some not. Based on personal experience the essential difference between a hostile and friendly takeover is how the current management makes out! In the friendly version, management get their full % plus golden this and that for as long as can be negotiated. In the hostile version, the value difference is collected by the acquirer, albeit exiting management can damage the company. Very odd outcome considering Broadwood is not just the usual 5% hedge fund..

  • But not after CEO/CFO gave further presentations... FP to settle lawsuit. Now ain't that just wonderful....

  • Now just went the one from last October. All this on quite low volume. Short interest was a historic high a few weeks ago, so all this action might just be unwinding. If not, quite a jump needed if there are still 5m shares short..

  • SEC filing can be interpreted as Fortinet started bidding at 4.1 and when they figured out DB was incapable of selling the company, or incompetent, gradually dropped the price. Insiders make a nice number anyway, cover themselves by saying the got a few more cents than Fortinets last offer, ha!

  • SunTrust Robinson Humphrey assumes Supernus Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SUPN) at Buy with a price target of $30. At least by streetinsider...

  • The VCs got nothing like what they wanted in the ipo... but now they did, although they had to wait 3+ years for it. I would expect the rest of the shares to be distributed if the price holds up. This was a good move and price is ok, still!

  • Reply to

    Heads Should Roll

    by mizzen13 Jun 16, 2015 1:56 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jun 17, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    AGM voting results tell that active shareholders are rather satisfied with management. Strange...really!

  • Reply to

    Time to get excited...?

    by culleraa Jun 10, 2015 7:36 AM
    culleraa culleraa Jun 22, 2015 8:14 AM Flag

    Only took 8 days to get a price target of 15 from someone. Actually, Benchmark was one of those that covered Siggie back in the boom years, they do not waste their time unless they think there will be action! Still, on an EV basis the value o f the co. has roughly doubled since last earnings - so can't expect too much more. That's unless merger fever finds Sigma as a target.

  • culleraa by culleraa Jun 25, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    Not heard of this before Glaukos ipo. Same idea of an insert but a prostaglandin to lower iop. Wonder if "we" have thought of this... and complementing illuvian as an antagonist for the side effects, if they occur.

  • 1 billion valuation today... sales some 50 m last year. Minor opthalmic surgery, but borderline benefit. Copy-cat competitor on its way, too.Major difference is that istent is covered by insurance. Even bigger difference is that Glaukos has the growth.. growth which Staar should have. Staar should and maybe can have a 1B valuation, too! Certainly the market will give it, if the business performs...

  • culleraa by culleraa Jun 30, 2015 7:55 AM Flag

    Were some of these "deals" held up by perceived b/s weakness? Prob not... size-wise, none are significant... not even lumped together. This latest one is said to be a distri, but the company is also a manufacturer and potential end-user customer... but a distri just buys to own stock at a discount. New investors got a near 30% gain at one point, which implies the stock was cheap for that very reason. Still, this news flow is a refreshing change. And you never know if a "hockey stick" rise in demand has started, until it has!

  • Reply to

    Cash and go

    by culleraa Jun 30, 2015 7:55 AM
    culleraa culleraa Jun 30, 2015 3:50 PM Flag

    Given the deal noise, quarter should be in-line ie 14.5 or so. Expectations are really low. rightly, too. Analysts say this and next FY growth will have avg of 4 or 5%. If that changes in 2016 stock will get re-rated... So, no fast-food from this one...

  • culleraa by culleraa Jul 6, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    Last quarter guidance increased expenses by 20 m for DCB trials. 8-K increased loan available by 20 m - in line with increased spending. Court ruling gives 20 m (assuming win on appeal and can collect). QT had cash of 20 m at end of year... and with sales of 13 m last year growing at 100%, likely has sales of 20m right now. All quite convenient for the math.
    Recent price action can't have much to do with all of this, court win was hands-down, if it sticks. Trading in QT is halted and QT really has no way out. Sales are mostly in US so court will take those dollars if defendents do not pay up.... after and if all appeals lost.

1.07Aug 28 1:52 PMEDT