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Special Diversified Opportunities Inc. Message Board

culleraa 103 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 16, 2014 10:07 AM Member since: Apr 27, 2005
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  • Sucampo has little control over its destiny due to its relationship with R-Tech Ueno. That jasdaq company has a market cap of some 300 m usd now (was 800 usd or so 9 mths ago)...so maybe one should combine the two,as RTU is the sole provider of lubiprostone. RTUalso pays a dividend... By their strategy Sucampo is also funding their R&D. The RTU pipeline looks to be very promising... which might be promising for Sucampo, too as Ueno rides both! Then again, RTU can milk Sucampo when needed. Transfer pricing of the the lubi is the obvious one. The Rescula launch being another example... where the analysts smelt something funny. Then again, if Rescula retains a small channel which can market the coming RTU drugs, so much the better for Sucampo as a sales channel in opthalmology in the future. All in all, complicated stock. Hopefully, future moves will simplify structure as the combination is easily worth a billion.

  • Adding the Anika franchise would be a "low-risk" way of using that cash! PEG ratio of1 supports a 50ish usd price. Fate of Monovisc determines the price, should the Board play ball...

  • culleraa by culleraa Jan 22, 2014 5:14 AM Flag

    Certainly a positive that stock price here also rose y'day. Linzess sales are now an annualized 200 or so vs 260 for Amitiza in the US. Market is thereforeon its way to doubling without Takeda/Sucampo losing sales (hopefully). Kind of proves the case that Takeda missed an opportunity! More so since we have the OIC. Ironwood has graphs out showing their med is 40-50% stickier than ours.Not sure what those mean in reality but i guess it means Sucampo suffers more patient churn to get same sales... with Forest Ironwood is going to get to be the leader by marketing. Unfortunate considering Lubiprostone has been shown to repair the gut wall after stress rather than just treat symptoms. Luckily we have Japan...

  • Reply to

    somebody know something?

    by mark2marqet Jan 22, 2014 12:43 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jan 23, 2014 4:56 AM Flag

    Yes, Zack. Knows and controls.Nasdaq shows a 8.6% new holding by the CFO... options I suppose. not many shares for anyone else! Considering the 1.5 million options granted and the preferred shares. Free float is so small that stock can easily be manipulated... or forgotten.

  • Not seen these volumes for 4 years! Much more and it goes back to when share price was close to 200 pre-split.Before and after!

  • All but the final detail. And no SEC filing first, is that legal? Met guidance, bu then they gave it to themselves, so who is kidding. Anyways, hard to see effect of acquisition after that. And it was small. MAybe there are the synergies to make it significant "doubling" the market or whatever. Smerklo really should take lessons on communicating rather than talking, there is a difference! Even talking less would help. Clearly a company with a biz opp in helping others extend "the tail" on time-limited contracts.

  • culleraa culleraa Jan 24, 2014 6:03 AM Flag

    not "have" but recognized! Irwd is too complicated for me to invest in.. but irwd sales means nothing; linzess sales "recorded" means more, but what? Profit on Sucampos's sales in Japan is another question mark. That's why plain royalty is better, as I tried to point out here.
    Irwd's figures say the API cost to irwd is 1% of linzess sales. Not comparable directly but Sucampo's "API" cost is 60% to Abbvie in Japan, so maybe 30% on enduser sales? go figure where the other 29% margin on enduser sales goes!

  • Flyonthewall says: JMP Securities increased its price target on BioDelivery Sciences, citing positive Phase 3 results for its BEMA Buprenorphine. The firm thinks the results significantly de-risk BioDelivery Sciences' development program, and it reiterates an Outperform rating on the shares. Google it. But that makes for some 500m market cap without cash coming. Only. Bdsi has kept a very low profile until now... possibly because fate with Endo is foregone event. Still, lots of positive events now coming for next 2 years. Offset of course by small possibility of negative dispute resolution and other events. Endo/Forest/Salix normally pay billions for these kinds of pipelines... just to name a few. So success is more like 25 a share at CURENT share count.

  • Had to go to the Endo site to find the most important bit. So if anyone else was wondering HOW significantly they met the endpoint, it was a home run, so to speak: The trial successfully met its primary efficacy endpoint in demonstrating that BEMA buprenorphine resulted in significantly (p

  • Once more?: The trial successfully met its primary efficacy endpoint in demonstrating that BEMA buprenorphine resulted in significantly (p lessthan 0.005) improved chronic pain relief compared to placebo. Additional secondary endpoints were supportive of the efficacy of BEMA buprenorphine compared to placebo. The most commonly reported adverse events in patients treated with buprenorphine compared to placebo were nausea (10% vs. 8%), vomiting (4% vs. 2%) and constipation (4% vs. 2%).

  • culleraa culleraa Jan 24, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    If it wasn't THIS company I would agree 100% (although I would prefer royalty). But it IS Sucampo. So where do you think Sucampo gets (must get) the prostone? And since profit is price minus cost, who determines the cost of Amitiza and why? And why does that matter in THIS company!

  • Reply to

    Time to buy?

    by eastsidecougar Jan 24, 2014 8:36 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jan 25, 2014 1:20 PM Flag

    That's the thing...no point in buying if no-one else will! So, is higher price worth it just cos the volume is higher...

  • Back in 2011, the study failed... quite a bit really. By eliminating one non-titrating group they saw p of 0.025 vs placebo in naive subjects.This had to proved again though, and with Endo's help? in trial design now got better than a p of 0.005 - which is superb!
    However, in opiod experienced group p was still 0.067 - not good enough. So now the question is will the same Endo magic affect this group... only need to get the p below 0.05 though so that kind of "5-fold" improvement is not needed.
    With mid double digit+ royalty on a 500m drug, this would make it worth a billion or so to bdsi. If approved.
    Someone who knows more than me can say that now bdsi has separate 2 trials, can they file for bema-bup in opiod-naive pain subjects alone - should the 2nd trial fail?

  • culleraa culleraa Jan 28, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    Med: I didn't realize how long I have been an investor here... maybe beginning to forget things: The first trial was "quick and dirty" for a very broad label, they then rejigged it to have power for both patient groups separately? I just don't recall hearing that Endo/bdsi would file nda for just opiod-naive. That said it has to be the bigger market in the future. My impression from the capmkt day was that the opioid replacement opportunity in the USA is huge and likely much bigger than 500 usd, at least to ENdo!

  • culleraa by culleraa Jan 29, 2014 4:48 AM Flag

    Hopefully they have cash on hand at end of LAST year,unlike end of 2012 disaster...

  • Reply to

    Nice numbers again this morning

    by soooverylucky Jan 29, 2014 8:07 AM
    culleraa culleraa Jan 29, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    EPS is nice, but sales expected to grow only 1-2%. 2% if subtract final sales to CFN. With option dilution sales per share are likely going down... so hardly growth stock.

  • culleraa culleraa Jan 30, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    Technically, CRC trail has not failed, just unlikely to meet primary endpoint... it might,but don't bet on it. As for triple-neg breast: answer is not any more. Cash value+ early pipline now.

  • culleraa by culleraa Jan 30, 2014 8:58 AM Flag

    Welldoc just got additional investment funding for marketing this ap (cash from Merck). "Type 2 diabetes affects 25.8 million Americans, only 12.2 percent of these people meet the standards of care for glucose, blood pressure and lipid control" Apart from the obvious, that current meds and delivery are far from working, looks like reimbursement for new ideas is not that hard to get. Also opens up newly FDA-cleared tool for Mankind to quickly show if Afrezza makes a real-world difference to diabetes care....

  • Reply to

    Some Background Help, please...

    by lineosight Jan 28, 2014 5:23 PM
    culleraa culleraa Jan 30, 2014 2:55 PM Flag

    Yeah, well many thought that sense would prevail at FDA, too. I recall they were "blindsided" by the reaction. Not the first time, or last.
    Anyone know how many fully diluted shares are out now... load more than the 5m I bet.

  • Data from IMS -Source: IMS National Prescription Audit, IMS Health - Medscape has the table ... if i am reading it right (they got the table headline wrong) says Amitiza came in at no.91, never been in there before for full year. Synthroid (levothyroxine) was no.1. In Sept. quarter Amitiza was no.94 - so moving up. But only relatively. 1,269,883 scrips for 2013, but in the 12 m til Sept 30th there were 1,287,691 scrips written. So maybe a 1-2% sequential drop for Amitiza?That does not tell sales directly as price has been raised and scrips written is not scrips used and paid. And this was the US only. Might explain the nervousness...even though this is not the main value driver short-term.

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