Today is Nov. 6, which means it's Election Day. It also means that Nate Silver's much-debated "forecast" and "now-cast" are now one and the same. Here are the latest (as of 10:10 a.m.) projections from the New York Times' polling blogger and psephologist, whose ongoing forecast has become one of the leading secondary storylines this campaign season as much of Washington's chattering class refused to believe this race is/was anything but a toss-up.
Electoral vote: President Obama 313.0, Mitt Romney 225.0. That's a 1.4 vote swing in Romney's favor since this morning's projections (published at 4 a.m.) but nontheless still represents a 14.0-vote shift in Obama's direction since Oct. 30.
Popular vote: Obama 50.8 percent, Romney 48.3 percent. That's a 0.4-point gain for Obama (and a 0.2 drop for Romney) in the past week. Obama's never trailed in Silver's forecasted popular vote, but hasn't topped the 51.6 percent mark since the forecast began early this summer.
Chances of winning: Obama 90.9 percent, Romney 9.1 percent. The latest forecast gives the president his best chance of winning that he's had all season in Silvers' Nov. 6 forecast, according to the NYT interactive.* Previously, Obama's best odds had topped out at 87.1 percent on Oct. 4. Silver's now-cast, meanwhile—which is supposed to provide a snapshot of where the president stands on a particular day (and not where it would likely stand on Election Day)—gave Obama a 98.1 percent chance of winning back on Sept. 30.