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National Western Life Group, Inc. Message Board

curt.brandt 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 26, 2014 11:56 PM Member since: Jul 14, 2012
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  • Recommendation: Scale In
    Core Thesis: Small company (30M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Significantly undervalued. Small dividend while waiting for value to be recognized.
    Valuation method: Earnings Power Value: $35.00

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Aug 26, 2014 11:54 PM Flag

    It's up 4% in 45 days! Who gave that a thumbs down?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recommendation: Scale In

    Core Thesis: Small company (49M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Significantly undervalued. Moderate dividend while waiting for value to be recognized.

    Valuation method: Asset Reproduction Value; Asset Replacement Value: $32.38

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recommendation: Scale In

    Core Thesis: Small company (89M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Significantly undervalued. Large dividend while waiting for value to be recognized.

    Valuation method: Asset Reproduction Value; Asset Replacement Value: $31.17

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Apr 2, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    3. Secondary Factors; a. Pristine Balance sheets: 10.4% equity/asset ratio, imputed credit rating AAA; b. Large cash balances: excess cash / share ~$0; c. Good growth prospects: marginal; d. Seasoned Management: CEO w/ company since 2001, e. Large Product Base: full line of standard banking products; f. Large Customer Base: operates in CT, MA, and NY; h. Share Repurchase Program: shares outstanding constant;; i. Insider Buying: none; j. High ROIC that generates FCF: med ROIC, 4.35% vs 3.18% WACC, generates FCF
    4. Hygiene Factors; a. Market Cap: $46M; b. Analysts: 0; c. Bulletin Board Activity: spam and 1 post from a Riverside shareholder in the last 3 months; d. Dividend yield: excellent, 4.1%; e. Main shareholders: Directors, no major institutional shareholders with large positions;

  • Company: Salisbury Bancorp (SAL), $27.20, 2 Apr 2014; Recommendation: Scale In
    1. Core Thesis: Small company (46M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Significantly undervalued. Large dividend while waiting for value to be recognized.
    2. Crucial Factors a. Valuation; Likely to continue as a going concern: Yes; Economic franchise: No; WACC: 3.18%; Normalized FCFPS: $3.02; Valuation method: Asset Reproduction Value; Asset Replacement Value: $76.28; b. Potential Upside: $188; c. Valuation Margin of Safety: 226%; d. Certainty: 99%; e. Time: 3 yrs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Mar 19, 2014 6:20 AM Flag

    2. Crucial Factors; a. Valuation; Likely to continue as a going concern: Yes
    Economic franchise: Yes; WACC: 2.80%; Normalized FCFPS: $1.86; Valuation method: Earnings Power Value; Earnings Power Value: $78.03; Intrinsic Value: $177.07; b. Potential Upside: $156; c. Margin of Safety: 226%; d. Certainty: 92%; e. Time: ~3 yrs

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Mar 18, 2014 11:02 PM Flag

    3. Secondary Factors; a. Pristine Balance sheets: 12% equity/asset ratio, imputed credit rating AAA; b. Large cash balances: excess cash / share ~$0; c. Good growth prospects: moderate, estimate ~0-3%/yr; d. Seasoned Management: CEO w/ company since 1982; Pres with company since 2000; e. Large Product Base: full line of standard banking products; f. Large Customer Base: operates in Illinois; h. Share Repurchase Program: shares outstanding declining; i. Insider Buying: last 6 months 18 purchases of 10k shares; j. High ROIC that generates FCF: med ROIC, 5.31% vs 2.8% WACC, generates FCF;

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Mar 18, 2014 10:59 PM Flag

    4. Hygiene Factors; a. Market Cap: $37.3M; b. Analysts: 0; c. Bulletin Board Activity: nothing but spam; d. Dividend yield: good, 1.5%; e. Main shareholders: ENDEAVOUR REGIONAL BANK OPPORTUNITIES FUND L.P.; f. Corporate Governance Risk: NA; g. Audit Risk: NA; h. Board Risk: NA; i. Shareholder Rights Risk: NA; j. Executive; Compensation Risk: NA

  • Company: Jacksonville Savings Bank (JXSB), $20.53; Date: 18 March 2014
    1. Core Thesis: Small company (37.3M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Remained profitable during the financial crisis.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recommendation: Scale In
    1. Core Thesis: Small company (748M) market cap and minimal analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Had some difficulty during the financial crisis but is adequately capitalized now.
    2. Crucial Factors: a. Valuation; Likely to continue as a going concern: Yes; Economic franchise: Yes; WACC: 3.76%; Normalized FCFPS: $4.13; Valuation method: Earnings Power Value; Earnings Power Value: $148.21; b. Potential Upside: $359
    c. Margin of Safety: 1200%; d. Certainty: 71%; e. Time: ~3 yrs
    3. Secondary Factors: a. Pristine Balance sheets: 20% equity/asset ratio, imputed credit rating AAA; b. Large cash balances: excess cash / share ~$4.68; c. Good growth prospects: moderate, estimate ~9%/yr; d. Seasoned Management: Pres/CEO has 7 yrs in position and 10 yrs with company; e. Large Product Base: full line of property, casualty and life products; f. Large Customer Base: domestic g. Defendable Competitive Position: yes; h. Share Repurchase Program: shares outstanding remain relatively constant; i. Insider Buying: 4 purchases and 10 sales witha net purchase of 13k shares; j. High ROIC that generates FCF: med ROIC, 11.46% vs 3.76% WACC, generates FCF
    4. Hygiene Factors: a. Market Cap: $748M; b. Analysts: 2; c. Bulletin Board Activity: minimal, 1 thread in last 3 months; d. Accounting issues: none; e. Director/officer pay: normal, CEO $612k; f. Main shareholders: DFA, Earnest Partners; g. Dividend yield: good, 2.4%

  • Reply to

    MET in Barrons

    by bbarberayr Mar 8, 2014 8:49 AM
    curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Mar 16, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    TTM TBVPS is $383

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Mar 16, 2014 7:08 PM Flag

    Apologies

    Sincerely,
    Monkey with a Pen

  • Recommendation: Scale In
    1. Core Thesis: Small company (872M) market cap and no analyst coverage. Well managed and executes well. Remained profitable through the financial crisis.
    2. Crucial Factors: a. Valuation; Likely to continue as a going concern: Yes; Economic franchise: Yes; Valuation method: Earnings Power Value; Earnings Power Value: $876; b. Potential Upside: $636; c. Margin of Safety: 400%; d. Certainty: 83%; e. Time: ~3 yrs
    3. Secondary Factors: a. Pristine Balance sheets: 14% equity/asset ratio, imputed credit rating AAA; b. Large cash balances: excess cash / share ~$35; c. Good growth prospects: low, estimate 0-6%/yr; d. Seasoned Management: Chairman/CEO has been with company since 1963; e. Large Product Base: full line of life insurance products as well as small amounts of real estate, nursing home and other investments; f. Large Customer Base: domestic and international through independent marketing organizations; g. Defendable Competitive Position: yes; h. Share Repurchase Program: no, shares outstanding remain constant; i. Insider Buying: 11 insiders bought 95k shares in last 3 months; j. High ROIC that generates FCF: low ROIC, 7.26% vs 8.26% WACC, generates FCF
    4. Hygiene Factors: a. Market Cap: $873M; b. Analysts: no analysts; c. Bulletin Board Activity: minimal, 13 threads in last 3 months; d. Pension fund deficit: none; e. Director/officer pay: normal, CEO $3.8M, COO $1.4M, other officers in mid 6 figures; f. Main shareholders: Tweedy Browne and DFA; g. Dividend yield: small, 0.20%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com by curt.brandt Apr 19, 2013 6:23 AM Flag

    Consistently increasing Revenues and Free cash Flow to Firm (FCFF).
    Normalized FCFF (NFCFF) of $1.18 / share.
    Earnings power value of $34.74/share @ weighted avg cost of capital of 3.48%
    NFCFF yield of 15.8% at current price of $7.45/share.
    What is not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    trading around $22.13 in europe

    by csco_brat Oct 30, 2012 10:06 AM
    curt.brandt@ymail.com curt.brandt Oct 31, 2012 6:59 AM Flag

    right now it is at 16.77 E on the dax or about $21.72. IF the insiders are going to sell they aren't routing their trades overseas.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • curt.brandt@ymail.com by curt.brandt Jul 14, 2012 12:37 AM Flag

    Market proce is less than NCA, liquidation value, and LBO value. Not in financial distress. It's a real company that sells to walmart, etc. No financial shenanigans.

    Any ideas why it is so cheap?

NWLI
212.05-2.66(-1.24%)May 5 4:00 PMEDT