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Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. Message Board

cvdpro 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 29, 2015 10:28 PM Member since: Jun 19, 1998
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  • So 14.10 if you add together, if you adjust 1 for 6 reverse split, only 2.36 before stock split, so much talked about the increase stock holders value, Also, the stock was paying around 2.40 in dividend before the split. what a nightmare!

  • cvdpro by cvdpro Aug 12, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    with the depreciation of Chinese dollar, they will take a hit on the principal and interest payment on their debt. The management simply destroyed the company for so called growth.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Crazy market

    by gorgec Aug 7, 2015 9:52 AM
    cvdpro cvdpro Aug 7, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    If you look at P/E or other matrix, you could argue the stock was overvalued before, so just simply go back to the norm.

  • cvdpro cvdpro Aug 6, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    Do not know if their recent acquistion will yield the same results!

    I kind of hoping they pay out 70% of the FAD, leave something for other thing.

  • 336 million on average 37% about 124 million impact for next year, during the first quarter, an increased of 32 million was approved. These will impact the bottom line next year not mention other benefit like increased lapse rate.

  • Reply to

    Why did AOCI fall by $1.4B in this quarter?

    by arman12321232 Aug 4, 2015 8:52 PM
    cvdpro cvdpro Aug 4, 2015 9:17 PM Flag

    they can not do that. They have match bond duration with the expected LTC policy duration.

  • Genworth Canada worth 1 billion - market value
    Genworth Austrialia worth 800 million - Market value
    Genworth US mortgage: 2.5 billion +
    So the total is 4.3 billion dollar, run off worth at least 500 million, if you minus corportation liability 1.4 billion.
    We have 3.4 billion dollar, that is about 6.80/share. Now we assume life insurance is worth nothing

    How much life insurance is worth? Even if it is not worth any money, how much the tax credit is worth, use 30% tax rate, you come up with 1.5 billion.

    I am sure if we price life insurance at 1 billion, someone would buy it in a hurry.

  • Reply to

    Why did AOCI fall by $1.4B in this quarter?

    by arman12321232 Aug 4, 2015 8:52 PM
    cvdpro cvdpro Aug 4, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    Higher interest rate is good for them, them can get higher return for their current investment.

  • Even the earning was down significantly compare with last year. It's mainly Canadian and Australian dollar was down significantly during this period.

    If you look at Genworth Canada's quartly report, the earning was actually going up. Operation earning was down slightly.

    Actually, Genworth Australia stock was up significantly since GNW unloaded its 14% position.

  • Reply to

    ring fencing/run off

    by fordbronx Aug 4, 2015 12:51 PM
    cvdpro cvdpro Aug 4, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Actually talked to an agent last week, in some instance, GNW's rate was 50% higher then other provider. If other can price their product, this low, you got to think GNW was able to make some profit with all the rate increase?

    You are right, some rate increase may take several years, but GNW could adjust their current reserve based on these future rate increase.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • One word: LTC.

    With the sale of asset, they should net around 800 million in Cash. They need to put some money into their US mortgage division. They might also choose contribute some money into their life insurance division to enhance the capital( Get higher rating, hopefully).

    Again, LTC claim experience is the key. If the experience was better/Same then their current assumption, that would be a plus. In fact, there were very positive development for the rate action, especially New York(they probably did not expect this results).

    If they foound out LTC claim experience was worst then the experience, then this stock is dead.

    Currently, investors value their us life insurance operation to zero or even negative, since GNW might contribute more capital into this division.

    Even the life insurance division is worth zero, this stock is still trading at discount to its net asset value, so the downside is very limited at current price level.

    Genworth Canada is worth 1 billion, Australia 850 million and US mortgage is worth at least 2.5 billion based on current valuation for MTG/RDN. 1.1 billion for run off/international protection. and 2.2 billion for the corporation liablity so 3.25 billion networth, Also there is over 1 billion tax benefit if you write off the life insurance division.

  • In the first quarter, the end of quarter share count was 82 million(please check the 10-Q,82,885 was exact), last quarter it went up to 89 million.

    I did not recall any event during the quarter. Could the management award themself 6 million shares(equity award) for the fine job they had done?

    10-Q will explain it, hope it's not compensation award.

  • 65%-70% for its CAD. There is a good reason for it.

    1) they add back loan loss reserve back to CAD, over the years, they did experience some loan losses. So loan loss reserve should be excluding from CAD picture.

    2) RAS had large real estate holding, so usual maintenance CAP EX is necessary. RAS did not disclose the amount. IRT did. So when I evaluate IRT CAD, I took the maintenance CAP EX from the equation.

    RAS CAD was 0.37 last quarter, they used share count of 82 million. If you look at their income statement, the fully diluted share count at end of quarter was 89 million,( could someone explain?) so if you add another 9 million shares into the equation, the total share count will be around 98 million shares.

    So next quarter's CAD is only going to be 0.16-0.17 if you use 98 million share count!

    I expect they reduce their dividend in the future to around 0.10. Mark my word!

    RAS priced their secondary at 5.55, if you take out the bank's fee, they should net around 5.20, if you use 0.40 dividend number, the deal is not too bad for RAS.

  • Reply to

    Buying on Monday

    by stonergreg13 Aug 1, 2015 8:54 AM
    cvdpro cvdpro Aug 1, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    If you look at RAS operation history, they basically did a large securitization once in every 6 months, they retained around 40 million investment interest. So run rate is about 90 million a year, since these are below investment grade, there are much bigger risk for these loan, so if you fact in the loan loss reserve, the actual yield should be lower. Last quarter they only generated 100 million new loan for securitization, so more then one quarter away from another securitization.

    Their huge CMBS investment run rate is only around 6%.

    Last quarter, they had over 100 million principal loan payment, RAS choose to reinvest these proceeds for CMBS.

    they had 100 million cash and 500 million credit facility on hand by the end of last quarter, I read their earning conference call, nothing indicated that business picked up all the sudden, they needed extra money.

    In the past RAS had raised capital couple of times, in each time, the stock performed relatively well before the secondary and yield was in a single digit(close to 8% if I remember correctly).

    If they really see good opportunities, they could simply sell a 6% yield CMBS investment position and use it for this opportunities.

  • Reply to

    the best way to play ras

    by yawhodid Jul 31, 2015 3:52 PM
    cvdpro cvdpro Jul 31, 2015 9:21 PM Flag

    I am a NRF investors for several years, You can not compare NRF with RAS. NRF management consistent found good opportunities with the new money. Of course, right now, the balance sheet is a little too leverage for NRF so I sold most of it(very heavy on floating rate), still have big position on their preferred.

  • Reply to

    Seems they could have at least waited

    by jrfillion Jul 31, 2015 11:13 AM
    cvdpro cvdpro Jul 31, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    been an Ras stock holders for a long time, this one is really troubling me. They obviously planned this one for a while they could explain why the stock and preferred went down. They could just reduce the dividend payout.

    I am afraid there will be a deep dividend cut coming. Since most of my holding is the company;s prefered C. I hope they are not hiding anthing from us.

  • Reply to

    secondary price, they will be lucky to price

    by johnsontsai Jul 30, 2015 5:51 PM
    cvdpro cvdpro Jul 31, 2015 8:51 AM Flag

    RAS is very thinly traded. We will be very lucky if they price around 5.50.

  • cvdpro cvdpro Jul 30, 2015 10:57 PM Flag

    "From a balance sheet point of view, we ended the quarter with $105 million of cash on hand and $497 million of availability under our lending warehouse facilities". During the earning call from Jim Sebra - CFO & Treasurer

    These lending warehouse, we are probably talking about libor + 2 or 3%!

    Someone mentioned IRT, IRT did have a commitment from the investment bank, so they do not need help from RAS.

  • They mentioned they had 100 million in cash and 400 million line of credit available. They might need some money for the government settlement, that's around 20 million.

    So why do they need to raise the money at this time?


3.33-0.04(-1.19%)Oct 13 4:05 PMEDT