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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

cwn600 124 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Dec 28, 1999
  • Reply to

    Hello Longs

    by crk00 Apr 15, 2015 9:24 PM

    Say, Brock, do you ever get confused between brockintont and your other ID, biowstream?

    Yes, it's that obvious.

  • Reply to

    This what you would get in the spin off

    by smulloy98 Apr 16, 2015 1:51 PM

    "That's the great thing about the internet---you can always find "facts" to support your BS!"

    And in your case, you always spout BS in response to real facts.

    Funny how that works, isn't it?

  • Reply to

    Hello Longs

    by crk00 Apr 15, 2015 9:24 PM

    That's pretty funny coming from a guy whose only contribution to this board has been to criticize others. Have you ever, maybe even once in your whole life, had a thought with any substance to it?

    Of course not.

  • CSAL has started trading when-issued.

  • Reply to

    This what you would get in the spin off

    by smulloy98 Apr 16, 2015 1:51 PM

    Yep. The real value of CSAL is what kept WIN from ten bucks. personalizit's belief that he was going to double his money the instant the deal is finalized just went poof.

  • cwn600 cwn600 Apr 20, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    "At todays pps, CSAL would have to trade at 28.00 and new WIN at 13.60+ to break even."

    Yes, exactly right. Just a shade shy of the $43/$43 personalizit is predicting.

  • Reply to

    CSALV trading today

    by nnrpro48 Apr 20, 2015 10:37 AM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 20, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    "so if you buy them now they convert to casl"

    Yes, next Monday.

  • Reply to

    CSALV trading today

    by nnrpro48 Apr 20, 2015 10:37 AM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 20, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    And the spread has jumped to 29/30.

  • In when-issued trading, CSALV is currently at 25.00 bid (1,100 shares), 28.00 ask (5,000), with zero volume.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 20, 2015 1:13 AM Flag

    For anyone else reading this board whose mind isn't a closed cardboard box, here's an easy example to verify. Go to Yahoo's historical prices for the following two companies and see how spinoff prices really work. In 2014 Ingersoll Rand (IR) spun off Allegion (ALLE). The ratio was one share of Allegion for every three shares of Ingersoll Rand. On November 29, 2013, the day before the ex-date, IR closed at 71.42. That same day, in when-issued trading, ALLE closed at 43.24. On the next trading day, December 2, 2013, which was the ex-date for the spinoff, ALLE opened at 43.08, down 16 cents. IR opened at 56.90, down 11 cents. How could it close at 71.42 on the distribution date and open on the ex-date at 56.90, yet be quoted as being down 11 cents? Because the closing price of IR was reduced by the value of ALLE on the morning of the ex-date, so it was starting the trading day at an adjusted price of 57.01. With the spinoff ratio being one share of ALLE for every share of IR, on the ex-date the price of IR was reduced by one third of the the 11-29 closing price of ALLE.

    That's the way spinoff pricing works.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 19, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    Make that, "in 2013 Ingersoll Rand (IR) spun off Allegion (ALLE)."

  • Reply to

    This what you would get in the spin off

    by smulloy98 Apr 16, 2015 1:51 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 19, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    "The whole idea of the R/S was to get WIN trading up in the range of their piers ($40+)."

    No, that's not why it's going to reverse split. The price reduction on the ex-date will drop it well below where it is today. You obviously refuse to believe me when I state the facts, but how about the people who handle the legal work of spinoffs? Do you suppose they might know how it all works?

    This is from the Wall Street law firm of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, in a publication titled "Spin-Off Guide:
    "If the subsidiary being spun off comprises a significant portion of the value of the parent, the spin-off likely will result in a substantial decrease in the stock price of the former parent. A parent may implement a reverse stock split to move the per-share trading price of its stock back towards the pre-spin level."

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 19, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    "I guess you need to educate WIN and some of the investment houses that don't agree with you."

    Your guess is entirely wrong because I did not state an opinion, I stated a fact. It is the way the market works, not a speculation or the kind of uninformed guess you're obviously making. And make no mistake: I have not ventured any statement of how the two companies' stock prices will perform once they begin to trade separately; I have stated the fact that the share price of WIN will adjust down on the ex-date to account for the value of CSAL no longer being included in WIN. That you don't know the difference is telling.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 19, 2015 1:05 PM Flag

    "You're saying there is no value in WIN having less debt and being more profitable."

    I said nothing of the kind. I said that there will be no difference in value of the two companies between Friday night and Monday morning. After the two companies split, of course the potential for increasing value is there. It simply doesn't happen between the close of trading one day and the opening of trading the next day.

    Your naivete is startling.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 18, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    In looking back at some of your old posts here, it's obvious you haven't seen a spinoff before. Contrary to what you've stated in the past, the CSAL shares are not free. The value of WIN as of April 24 will be split between WIN and CSAL on April 27. Not equally, but split between the two. You're obviously in for a big shock.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 18, 2015 11:45 PM Flag

    "Why would it adjust down when the WIN value will increase because of less debts?"

    Because it's disgorging itself of some of its assets. Up through April 24 WIN includes all the assets that will become CSAL on April 27. Why would anyone pay the same price for WIN on April 27, when it doesn't include the CSAL assets as they would on April 24 when it does include them?

    If the value of CSAL were negative, then sure, there'd be no reason for the price of WIN to adjust down after the spinoff. But if the value of CSAL was negative, nobody'd buy it and its price would be zero. But there IS positive value to CSAL. It WILL trade for some kind of price. Therefore it has positive value, regardless of the debt. And that value being split off from WIN means WIN will be worth exactly that much less on the ex-date.

    The parent companies of spinoffs always adjust down in stock price on the ex-date to account for assets that are no longer a part of the parent company. Just like companies do when the pay cash dividends. That's the very reason the spinoffs trade in when-issued form a week before the spinoff occurs -- to establish the value that will be deducted from the parent company's price.

    Seriously, have you never seen a spinoff before?

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 18, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    Why would you want to buy WIN to get the distribution? Are you aware that on the ex-date the price of WIN will adjust down to account for the value of CSAL no longer being attached to it?

  • cwn600 cwn600 Apr 17, 2015 8:48 PM Flag

    Well, CSAL is going to start trading on a when-issued basis on Monday, so its price will be established then. The when-issued trading symbol is CSALV. The symbol will change to CSAL the following Monday.

  • cwn600 cwn600 Apr 17, 2015 8:02 PM Flag

    "I''ll stick closer to WIN's estimates on their website: $43 for WIN and $43 for CSAL. ... Go to windstream website, click investor relations, click reit, click update on reit spinoff, click investor presentation ... page 7"

    You mean where it says Indicative Share Price 7.32 for WIN and 8.64 for CSAL?

    43 doesn't appear anywhere in that document.

  • Reply to

    New shares

    by rcassiani Apr 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    cwn600 cwn600 Apr 17, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    To be more accurate, you need to add the following to your post:
    Any shareholders of record as of the distribution record date who sell their WIN shares before the ex-date, April 27, will also be selling their right to the distribution. Buyers of WIN shares beginning two days before the record date through the distribution date will receive the distribution not on the distribution date but on the due bill settlement date.

GEO
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