You are absolutely right.
Look at EW at an example . CEO sells monthly and people have been saying oh sell sell
EW hit all time high just days ago.
Look at AMZN, almost $400. Profit is not the only criteria to determine stock prices.
Growth plan is key.
I lost some because because Cramer was so sure that BABA was the best stock, better than AMZN EBAY He also recommended JD at $32, said better than AMZN and it dropped to $22.
The worse of all is GPRO. Wow, he was pumping daily for a long time. Said his best IPOs of the year GPRO MBLY ANET. BABA lost 50% it's value since. GPRO lost 2/3.
Need to do our own homework.
ESPR ran straight up from $59 tp $119 in a little over 2 weeks. A buyout couldn't even jump that fast.
ESPR still in phase 2.
When a stock ran up too far too fast, basically flying up then it will drop faster.
Insiders will sell some at least. Forget about secondary and all of that.
ESPR ran up from $35 in less than 3 months.
Did you use fib. Retrace? 38.2% retrace is $96.
We can not compare easily. There are so many factors involved such as valuation, market environment. When market is strong, people like to move to "safer", lower vauation and well liked by investors/funds like AAPL, FB, PANW.
Last October ESPR dropped from $31 to $20. Look at the chart, RSI was way high at $31 since it ran up from $15. No one could believe that they are still a couple of years a way from phase 3 and stock jumped 30% in a day. Do you really think that institutions would buy at $80 per share?, not even $70. This stock is being manipulated in a big way using options. Look at the call volumes.
Also look at CYBR dropped from $70 to $47 after they announced second offering priced at $51. They announced second offering when CYBR at about $65. Why didn't they price at $60?
We should be all careful. Just because ESPR jumped to $100 from $35 in 3 months does not mean it will be back there in a couple of weeks. Is CYBR at $70 yet?
You are using the $98 $100Per share to come up with number of shares. How about $70? Or less. Usually the price is the average of previous 10 trading days. Use the average and we can see reason for CYBR priced at $51. I have calculated average of 10 days for ESPR.
Good luck to all.