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American Realty Investors Inc. Message Board

cygnus2005x1 28 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Oct 19, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Got some news for you

    by psec_holders_are_stupid_chimps Mar 2, 2015 6:15 PM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 18 hours ago Flag

    It's March 2015 and you're worried about rising interest rates and you have the nuts to call other stupid chimps.

    That says all I need to know about you.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Feb 26, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    Amy Who??????

  • Reply to

    Just like predicted...

    by minnyfan Jan 28, 2015 2:19 PM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 28, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Most people don't recognize that with low interest rates the minimum payment to service the USA's debt is 350 Billion. With increasing interest rates back to normal (say 4 to 6%) that $350 Billion Dollar payment becomes $1 Trillion dollars - how do you think that will fit into the Federal Budget?

    To your point, interest rates will remain low - the Federal Government can't afford to raise them.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 26, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Yeah your adamatanly GOP. After being lied to and stolen from for 8 years you're ready to reward the same party with another 4 years in the oval office.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 26, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    No No No - Dodd/Frank fixed everything. Didn't you read the narrative and talking points. Democrats told us that Dodd/Frank fixed everything and I'm sure come the next crisis they'll tell us it was Wall Street and Greedy bankers again. Keep in mind we have an entire slew of idiots who will believe whatever Democrats, MSNBC, John Stewart, Steve Colbert tell them.

    P.S. There's another report "The House that Uncle Sam Built" that list the specific pieces of legislation changes that made the crisis possible as well but it only coverns changes over the past ten years prior to the crisis of 2008.

  • Reply to

    Cup and Handle ??

    by ai6node4 Jan 23, 2015 8:55 AM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 26, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    No - You don't.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 21, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    by "Incredibly Positive things happening" are you referring to the pumping on this message board and few blogs that no one reads?

    If so - there's your answer.

  • Reply to

    Blood From a Turnip..........

    by slicktop4 Jan 16, 2015 10:03 AM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 16, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    get a room

  • Reply to

    Blood From a Turnip..........

    by slicktop4 Jan 16, 2015 10:03 AM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 16, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    If you are suggesting that 149 trades go slicks way then you are dumber than a box of rocks.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 15, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    Last night the Swiss abandoned the Euro as they announced the tie between the Swiss Frank and the Euro, in other words - the Swiss no longer have confidence in the Euro. 6 Years ago when the crisis began many took a large macro view of the crisis and stated this was going to be a long grueling road to recovery - and then our idiot politicians thought 750 Billion TARP was a good idea and then 867 Billion in Obama Stimulus and then blowing out the Federal Budget from 2.4 Trillion to 3.5 Trillion were all good ideas.

    Poor government decision making also surrounded the financial crisis and crash of 1929 where the business cycle downturn met poor government monetary policy and loose credit policies. The result was an extended recovery that burned itself out during WWII.

    In the meantime, the Fed has and continues to tighten (they never get the timing right) and emerging markets are getting crushed as the value of the dollar increases and will continue to do so. Nations (Europe, Japan) continue to inject their own stimulus and by doing so devalue their own currency, other nations (China) have no choice but to follow suit further exposing the loose credit policies in their own nations and around the globe (Corporate debt) and this has heavy impact on the last holdout in Europe which is Germany, expect them to reverse their anti-stimulus position in 2015.

    Six years ago it was said that in the end - it would be a question if the Euro even survives. Consider the impact of that statement.

    Finally, there is no significant news concerning PSEC, the markets are just roiling due to developments at the macro level. If your in long term - relax, the markets are not going to zero. If your trading - the markets are making huge swings on a weekly basis, you should already be 50% or more in cash.

    Good Luck

    P.S.: I'm an investor, I'll buy more on the way down with no fear. It's all about what you can sleep with at night.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 14, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Again, Credibility comes from results and to date. FoscoFrank has none.

    He's just trying to see if he can move the PPS with his pumping - he won't.

  • Reply to

    HERE IN DC!! WHAT'S the plan

    by foscofrank2 Jan 14, 2015 6:11 AM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 14, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Fosco - Credibility comes from RESULTS and so far - you have NONE.

  • Reply to

    Resistance $8.64

    by mizesaw Jan 8, 2015 1:38 PM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 9, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    Stock prices are driven by one main item Fundamentals, positive news events on the fundamentals drive the price higher and negative events drive it lower. Technical Analysis is the means of assessing all market conditions to determine sentiment and set expectations for gains/loss in share price. Technical indicators DO NOT drive a stock price. Just because there is a resistance level sitting out there means absolutely nothing, many other factors come in to play.
    Weak support and resistance levels are at odd levels such as an $8.64 price level. Stronger support / resistance levels are at the even numbers $8.00, $9.00 etc and the strength of these are determined by how often the stock paused at these levels over time. Two days closing at $8.64 is a weak resistance level. 30 Days of closing prices at $8.64 over 6 months or a year make for a much stronger resistance level.
    Making claims that we will move much higher from a weak resistance level is nonsense. In the last 6 months, PSEC has closed at $8.64 once and opened at $8.64 twice meaning $8.64 is completely insignificant.
    Finally, TA is never used with one metric, support or resistance levels are meaningless if RSI, MACD, 50MA, 200MA, Bollinger Bands, Slow Stochastics, Price, Volume are not aligned and support/resistance levels are never considered outside any developing Technical price pattern.

  • Reply to

    SLICK BENDING OVER FOR FRANKLIN

    by h92661 Jan 8, 2015 10:53 AM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 8, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    The nice thing about standard deviations is that a stock typically floats within ± 3 Standard Deviations of the mean. The other nice thing about standard deviations and stocks is that they fluctuate all the time from low (.08 cents for PSEC) to high (which ranges from mid 20's to as much as .40). PSEC has pulled off the extreme lows of December and moving higher - at this point MACD, RSI, PPS, Standard Deviation, Slow Stochastics and Volume all confirm the change in trend. In one to three days PSEC will take a little breather on the move higher and after that brief pause it will continue to move higher as the trend indicates.

    But you keep staring at your standard deviation as prices move beyond your expectations.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 7, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    So a close over $2.5 is what you consider waaaaaaaay higher?

    Sounds like your pumping AIR again.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Jan 5, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    With all due respect, you guys are focused on the tiny world of oil and are missing the big picture. Haven't you noticed all commodities are getting hit? What drives an accross the board hit in commodities? I can tell you right now - its bigger than oil or oil production or anything that CNN will discuss.

    The USD is moving higher and this is a new development breaking out from a 35 year trend. It will have global impact in carry trade and currency wars (think 1997 / 1998 on steroids). If nothing changes in US monetary policy the trend will accelerate, if China devalues their currency, the trend will accelerate, same with Japan and Europe. The only thing that will bring about commodity price stability is if the US economy were to experience some weakness and that does not appear to be in the cards any time soon.

    This has everything to do with Emerging market funding (primarily through corporate bond issuance). If you want to know whats happening with commodity prices keep your attention focused on currency valuations and currency carry trade. This is what is moving oil prices, this is what's moving markets.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Dec 30, 2014 2:29 PM Flag

    The GSE's provide the government guarentee for the Mortgage bundles that are sold to the world. As such when the bonds go belly up it is the US government and taxpayer that are on the hook to pay. Yes - the GSE's can go back to the originating bank but as we saw with Lehman (LEH) that was a short story that came nowhere near close to making the taxpayers whole so that burden fell onto the GSE's.

    As we have seen, it was not the banks that changed legislation concerning the mortgage process, it was not the banks and financial institutions that changed the rules for mortgage originations, leverage limits and securities underwriting. That was the politicians that loaded up that train and sent it flying down the tracks and the GSE's were part of that mess because they were instructed to continue purchasing mortgages regardless of their terms (interest only, no money down).

    The entire process was infected by the unintended consequences of politics and politicians including coersion back in the mid to late 90's to get the train rolling down the tracks. The root cause of the crisis is our politicians and the GSE's are a big part of their power concerning the mortgage industry. The GSE's are not a pass through entity - they work with the banks to bundle, package and rate the bonds for sale. They do have a responsibility in knowing what they purchase and what they're selling and the fact is that they didn't have a clue concerning the risk they were placing at the feet of the taxpayer.

    I don't know about you - but I expect better from a government entity that provides a guarentee of payment to a mortgage security.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Dec 30, 2014 2:10 PM Flag

    Oil: The next 5 months should tell the story on oil. If prices stabilize then you have your entry, if prices continue to fall the sector is in trouble. Keep in mind, cheap money has been around for the last 6 years. How many half wit drillers and producers got in business with cheap money or expanded their small successful drilling operation with lots of debt. Analysis suggests as much as $500 billion dollars worth.

    If oil prices stabilize in the next 5 months then the sector can be considered debt healthy. However, if prices continue to fall, this tells you that after losing 40% of the commodities value that producers are desperate to keep the cash flow going to pay the loans off and thus continue to produce to get whatever price they can. This would indicate that the sector is ripe with bad loans (Junk Bonds) and that desperation will present a much better buying opportunity after the 5 month period is up and that it will most likely take another 6 months (end of 2015) before prices stabilize.

    Outside of the above – I am still invested in MREITS (NLY, AGNC) and BDC’s (PSEC) for 10 to 13% dividends and keeping a close watch on LINE and EPD for potential entry.

  • Reply to

    Your favorite stock brokerages?

    by dgplexus2 Dec 22, 2014 9:58 PM
    cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Dec 29, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    TDA or TradeStation

    You get what you pay for and both offer advanced services for activity and account level. Both have been flawless in both services and transaction speed, quotes etc. Never had any problem with either company. I was with Datek prior to the TDA buyout. I stayed with TDA because of their performance.

    Primary activity is Stocks and Options.

  • cygnus2005x1 cygnus2005x1 Dec 12, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    Wow look a California Democrats more than willing to spend other peoples money - that's a new one.

    Which way do democrats want to play this game? When it comes to education, economics, standards of living, healthcare we rank anywhere from 7th to 30th across all nations - but any time some idiot democrat whats to take taxpayer money, create a crisis, and then invent another way to make housing "affordable" we become the "richest nation".

    I don't know about the rest of you...but words like shyster, con, f*&^*%*ing liar come to mind.

ARL
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