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Yum! Brands, Inc. Message Board

cynicoptimist 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 18, 2014 2:38 PM Member since: Mar 13, 2010
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  • Reply to

    pehaps an uneducated question

    by desertridgept Jul 17, 2014 1:31 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 18, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Yes, it is.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    About PixarBio Corporation

    by bigmike1876 Jul 14, 2014 7:32 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Me neither. I'd like to think that Langer is a better judge of character, not to mention the potential for divided loyalty.

  • Reply to

    Quite the contrast indeed

    by cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 11:18 AM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    It should be over $2.50 right now.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Prospect estimates

    by iverson6977 Jul 15, 2014 11:54 AM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 12:00 PM Flag

    Hmm, I don't know. Someone should ask McNulty. Too many wooden puppets there who don't know how to talk.

  • Reply to

    Time To Buy HART Once Again

    by plucas18749 Jul 14, 2014 8:54 AM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 11:31 AM Flag

    I'm a buyer at $6.

  • cynicoptimist by cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    A year ago this company was arguably much further away from success with introducing the first in-human Neural Scaffold clinical trial than we are right now. However, the CEO then was criss-crossing the country and spreading the word about essentially three catalyst events that he implied were imminent:
    1. Scaffold Human trials (though there were no sites approved)
    2. Hydrogel application to the FDA
    3. Uplisting
    At this same time last year the stock price was knocking at the $6.00 door. And in anticipation of 2 if not 3 of the above events, the speculation last year was that this could follow ONVO's trajectory and go above $8

    Today, we have increased rationality as far as not over-promising. And actual achievement in terms of approved sites ready to begin the procedure as soon as there is a patient. Hydrogel (except for 1 application) is back-burnered for now so that the focus is sharp. And no talk of any up-listing as the share price is currently too low for one. Who could have imagined the current price? Further, it makes no sense that it would continue to be this low considering that precious few bought in this low or lower. Why would anyone sell way down here?

    Eliminating all of Reynold's hype, we are arguably farther along right now than we were a year ago. I really look forward to some solid news because the current PPS is just plain WRONG. At least 2-1/2 times too low.

    One of the last PR's said we should be expecting lots of news this year, as they anticipate groundbreaking events. I hope that is the case.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cynic

    by alexsissy Jul 14, 2014 9:12 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    It is beautiful. You can see down 30 feet crystal clear water off the shores of that area. Can you email me at this Yahoo address?

  • Reply to

    Cynic

    by alexsissy Jul 14, 2014 9:12 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Alex, I will try to get to the meeting. Just not sure 100%. It's more like 50/50. How far do you live from Boston?
    The cabbage was a joke, yes the onions can do the same thing, so cabbage would be an overload!

    Alex, speaking of the region, are you familiar with Mali Losinj?

  • Reply to

    Cynic

    by alexsissy Jul 14, 2014 9:12 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 15, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    Seriously Alex, its just an intelligent guess. The same kind of intelligent thinking that tells me we are going to rise from this absurd low and that this summer will bring us good newss. The sooner the better.

    Not sure I will make it to the annual meeting. It would be nice if I could.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I have news.

    by alexsissy Jul 14, 2014 3:02 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 14, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    You eating too much cabbage with your Cevapcici?

  • Reply to

    How does $1.10 even make sense??

    by mix.jack Jul 9, 2014 3:56 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jul 10, 2014 1:52 AM Flag

    No doubts here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Quick review:
    Same speed ahead for the acute SCI intervention. Potential for 2000+ procedures under orphan designation at $60K to $80K per procedure until subsequent 501K approval for expanded use. The big difference now is that after safety is proven, I expect the pivotal trial stage will be expanded to include collaborations with stem cell players. This will rapidly accelerate the pipeline and advance the potential number of procedures in a shorter timeline.
    Step 1: Orpan-acute SCI, let's say 2000 x only $60K. This brings in revenues of $120M and higher if price goes up. Step 2: expanded use (12,000 SCI per year) let's use a conservative 8000 procedures and that would be $480M. Step 3: Intervention inclusive of chronic, let's raise the price to $80K (could go to $100K) and now let's go with a conservative 10,000 procedures combined with the previous acute numbers and we are now at $1.28B in revenues. At this final destination and based upon even 1.5X today's share level, using a P/E of only 15, the share price is $128/s and this could be do-able in 5 to 7 years. Closer in: Without chronics we're talking $48/s in 4 years. At just the orphan procedure level divided by 1.25X of current share level and a P/E of 22 (eye to the future and media spotlight) and you get $22/s. Extrapolate back from 4 years to today and I am quite assured that once the first patent is off and running we could rise above $5. Current price is undervalued by about $2, IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Faster than under the Reynolds plan thanks to the paradigm shift of the new management:

    Once we get the first patient I predict that we will easily demonstrate the primary objective which is safety. This is definitely not a boring ho-hum and I'll get to why. Secondarily, there will be in my opinion a measurable level of efficacy demonstrated by a more rapid and slightly greater than expected recovery as compared with stabilization without a scaffold. Here's why this is huge and why it it significantly better than the Reynolds timeline:

    Safety opens up many doors. Patients 2 through 5 will confirm safety (hopefully on the accelerated plan) which as we know is a very low bar and already demonstrated in numerous pre-clinicals. The major way this opens up doors is because at least one and potentially more 3rd parties will have approval from FDA to use cells. If they are safety approved and we also are, this leads right into partering trials and eventually partnered medical interventions. EVERY cell approach will NEED the scaffold. They have never been able to achieve significant efficacy with cells alone. Repeat, every other cell-based player whether acute or chronic will need the scaffold. BONUS: While cells alone do not work, if we show any measurable efficacy it means that scaffold alone is more effective than cells alone. So which component is more critically needed. Also, if a scaffold procedure would fetch $60 to 80K each operation, then including cells gets us that much more operations. I believe the scaffold + cells will be necessarily fast-tracked through FDA at only slightly longer than the orphan scaffold-only procedure for acute SCI. This would lead to an accelerated path to significant revenues. Why do you think all but one hydrogel was back-burnered? This scaffold strategy will play (and pay) off HUGE. New Managemment's goal seems to be a significantly faster track to include chronic SCI than Frank could ever have dreamed of. Now the numbers...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Promoting not pumping

    by jeffjohns6537 Jun 26, 2014 4:50 PM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jun 27, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    I also see it this way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cynicoptimist cynicoptimist Jun 27, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I keep wondering who the !diot is that keeps red-thumbing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ... from the range we are in now. This, based upon a couple of optimistic PR's. That's it.
    NVIV was knocking repeatedly at $2.50 BEFORE the following milestones:

    - Before perfection of in-house scaffold manufacture
    - Before IRB approvals and contracts established at currently three sites
    - Before a $14 million cash infusion
    - First ever human clinical trial for NSS to begin at any moment
    - Approaching the following upward moving catalysts: Aforementioned clinical trial to begin any time now, expectation on a positive update with hydrogel line, upcoming investor meeting (they are motivated to have positives in place before and through that time period.)

    So, despite the odd machinations of the way the current PPS has played out, there is nothing other than the excess of shares that justifies the low price. There is one action that will reverse it and cause it to surpass the previous norm of $2.50. Buying volume increase. There are TWO factors that will make this happen:

    1. The imminent positive catalysts play out (and I have NO reason at all to think they won't.)
    2. Publicity. The tree that falls in the forest will not be heard in Chicago, New York, and elsewhere. This MUST occur and will assuredly come from post news write-ups from such wafflers as Napodano and others. In the past, this company had exceptionally strong publicity efforts from within. Currently there is zero evidence that it has any decent publicity assets. Hopefully that will change once the actual positive news develops. If the current CEO doesn't have those skills then someone else needs to pick up that torch. Right now, though he might be performing miracles quietly in the background, his public face is about as dull as a ventriloquist puppet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • cynicoptimist cynicoptimist May 31, 2014 8:12 AM Flag

    Certified Troll as has been pointed out.
    Please don't feed the trolls.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Is this all in the hands of the facility, their IRB and the surgeons? Does InVivo play any part in accepting or rejecting a candidate?

  • Reply to

    About bringing back the big fella...

    by cynicoptimist May 30, 2014 8:33 AM
    cynicoptimist cynicoptimist May 30, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Original post was corrupted by the Yahoo board, so I re-posted but it still left out the critical opening phrase:
    "I would be fine if he came back under the following circumstances:"

  • 1. He is exonerated on all allegations against him
    2. He refrains from any 105b plan for at least 2 years
    3. Depending on what he'd be hypothetically coming back to do: take a reasonable, non-bloated salary with no substantial perks.
    4. He refrain from over-promising on timelines, barring major unforeseen circumstances. Less than 30 days off in forecast is ok.
    5. That he would resume promoting the company, but in the professional manner becoming of an executive and not a circus MC.

    We sure could use someone who actually cares about shareholder value. I haven't seen that with the current management. Just look at the ridiculous price here, AFTER securing clinical sites ready to go and $24 million in cash. We should be at least 2.5 X this!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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