I believe this was the second ruling against PFE concerning Celebrex, so I would expect the company had a decent inkling that this could happen. I think that may be why the reaction has been rather mild. IMHO.
I believe their coal reserves are located within their South Gobi Resources subsidary. I was having trouble finding exact numbers, but it looks like they project reserves of something like 600 million tons. I was searching through some info. from a couple of years back, so the numbers could have changed. I believe the coal is the closest large supply to China.
Took a look at after hours trading. PFE dropped the last hour on very low volume. Tomorrow we shall see what the analysts have to say. PFE has recently had very good news on its drug pipeline, so that may offset the possibility of losing patent protection on Celebrex earlier than expected. The fact that PFE plans to appeal the ruling should also mute any slide. Funny that the judge issued the ruling just as briefs concerning the patent were to be heard. You would think the judge would want to hear what both sides had to say before issuing a ruling. I expect an appeals court will let the hearings proceed. IMHO.
Panelist said that patent news was not enough for PFE's drop today. PFE has said that they will immediately appeal, so this will play itself out in court. If PFE loses, it might actually speed up PFE's separation of its generic business from its patent protected drugs. Celebrex would certainly be a big generic drug.
Obviously you see potential in Trq otherwise you wouldn't have bought in. If an agreement is reached with the government to open the second phase, the valuation will rise quickly. That is why speculation has appeared concerning Rio being interested in acquiring the stake in Trq that it doesn't already own. Reportedly trq is sitting on an enormous amount of coal, copper, gold, etc. What better time to purchase reserves than when the price of those resources are low. If Mongolia agrees to work things out, I believe a purchase of Trq by Rio would be welcomed by the investment community.
I see no advantage for Rio to try to hurt Trq's prospects, and it would be dangerous for Rio to play games because they own such a large stake in Trq. As has been pointed out, Trq has significant coal, copper, and gold reserves which make it a very valuable asset. Makes more sense to me for Rio to try to strengthen its position with Trq, and a buyout/merger would be in everyone's best interest. If Rio used their own stock to make the purchase, it would seem to make the most sense to me. As a stockholder in Trq, I wouldn't mind swapping them for Rio shares with a few dollars premium thrown in. IMHO.
With Rio holding such a large stake in Trq, it makes sense that they win if Trq is successful. If Rio decides to make an offer for Trq, it will be because Rio believes they could negotiate and run things better by themselves. I would imagine there would be cost savings also. It might be unpopular with some, but I could see Rio making an offer for Trq using its stock. Both companies are critically linked as it is, so it would make sense to merge ownership and operations into one. IMHO.
Mongolia has just as much at stake as TRQ does. An agreement would make sense for both sides. When an agreement comes, and I believe it will, TRQ will be sitting pretty. RIO must know what is going on in the negotiations, and that is why I believe these rumors about RIO's interest have come to light. If the mine is going to dramatically increase production in the future, it would make sense for RIO to try to acquire TRQ sooner rather than later. That is if TRQ would be willing to sell. We shall see. IMHO.
That's what I figured, but I thought I would humor him a little. When I sell a stock for better or worse, I don't waste my time dwelling on it. If you take your eye off your current holdings, you are more likely to make mistakes. IMHO.
If I read this correctly, Mongolia should be highly motivated to reach an agreement to proceed to the next stage of development. Besides the usually tax and job benefits that countries generate from operations like this, Mongolia apparently shares in the revenues generated. Moving the mine forward appears to be a win/win situation for all concerned. Though the Alpha hype has died down, I wouldn't be surprised to see some favorable news coming out soon. IMHO.
Why are you still lurking on the message board then? When I dump a stock, I move on to follow where I actually have my money invested.
A double from here would be great. I doubt that Rio would offer an initial bid higher than that though. With all last week's buying on the rumors, it appears those just buying in would jump at the chance to get $8. I guess if you are long at much higher prices, $8 might be just a tease. But hey, who knows if and when gold, copper, etc. will test their old highs. $8 would be fine by me. IMHO.
Makes sense for Rio to move to acquire now. Metal prices are depressed, and the Mongolian mine is at a standstill. Once the project gets approved for the second stage which I expect soon because Mongolia has a lot at stake, TRQ's price could rise significantly and its potential value could rise significantly. Rio already owns a large stake, so they must be privy of progress in the negotiations with the government. Buying slightly above the yearly high would probably please most stock holders, and give Rio the chance to assume total control of the project. IMHO.
If TRQ cuts an agreement with the government to get the second phase going, I believe the stock will respond nicely whether RIO wants to gobble up the company or not. Rumors of RIO's interest probably surfaced because TRQ becomes much more valuable once a deal is brokered. Since the gov. has a stake in the mine and its success, I believe we may be getting close to a deal.
Seems like it would make sense for Rio to get control of the Mongolian mine they currently share with TRQ. From what I have read, if the Mongolian gov. gives the approval for the next stage of development, the mine could generate significant amounts of copper and gold. With metals prices currently depressed, buying assets now would seem to make sense.
Everyone who has been defending management's questionable practice of hiring a PR firm to pump the stock while insiders were selling their shares, is starting to feel the pain. I am not always right, but when a warning sign like this smacks me in the face, I have learned to step back and let the dust settle. I keep coming back to the basic thought that if GALE's prospects were as good as the PR company was saying, why were the insiders selling? At the very least, what went on with GALE had to make a serious investor begin to wonder.
The potential of this mine for Mongolia and Rio are clearly evident. If a deal doesn't happen now, it should only be a matter of time.