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Fortinet Inc. Message Board

cyoung8404 155 posts  |  Last Activity: 59 minutes ago Member since: Sep 14, 2009
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  • cyoung8404 cyoung8404 59 minutes ago Flag

    If I knew the bottom, I would be sitting pretty. If PFE, BMY, or another large pharma goes on a bio-tech buying spree, the sector will rebound quickly. Right now speculators seem to be fleeing the sector for more tangible prospects.

  • cyoung8404 cyoung8404 1 hour 24 minutes ago Flag

    13 cents a share hardly represents a windfall. Considering GALE is off its yearly high by over 70% and besieged by legal issues, a dead cat bounce now and then is understandable. But, Frank, since this is the CLDX message board, doesn't CLDX's $1 plus drop seem to support my contention.

  • The recent news peaked buying interest for a couple of days. If things quite down, I expect bio-techs will remain under pressure unless they are up for drug approval.

  • I still like the bank's prospects long term. They are in a great location, and aside from those two corporate loans that are having some issues, they look pretty secure. Throw in the buyout opportunity, and NWBI has a lot going for it. IMHO.

  • Since PFE reportedly broke off talks, AZN has started to slide back down and PFE has jumped close to a buck. PFE also had some positive psoriasis drug trial news so that may be a factor. The one positive all this pharma/biotech merger mania has had is to help put a bottom into the biotech blood letting that we recently experienced. I hope it holds!

  • I get the feeling that management may be rewarding shareholders and themselves with cash in these special dividends before they put the bank up for sale. It is only speculation on my part, but it seems to make sense. Why would they be giving all this cash out, if they had any plans to expand through an acquisition? I believe they said they weren't interested in making a purchase now, but hey, down the road anything could happen. IMHO.

  • Reply to

    Earnings miss buying opportunity

    by cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 2:21 PM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    I currently held quit a few shares, but I bought a few hundred with some change I had in my accounts. The stock bounced back decently toward the close. I was surprised by the $1 dividend announcement, but I always like companies that give $ back to the shareholders. I know management talked about raising their share price, but I get the impression that they may be doling out some cash before putting the bank up for sale. But hey, what do I know!

  • cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    You do make a good point. I would think both companies would be looking for promising drugs in development from small companies possibly struggling with money issues. Just look at Cldx. With the price down so much, I would expect buying interest if Cldx's pipeline is viewed to be as strong a many of us think. I don't think PFE would be interested as they walked away a few years back, but hey, stranger things have happened.

  • Reply to

    M&As are on the front page again...

    by raysfrom98 Apr 21, 2014 4:35 PM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 5:58 PM Flag

    It should be good for most bio-techs and small pharmas. With the news that PFE is also on the hunt, maybe the sector will start to rebound.

  • Two corporate loan delinquencies hurt earnings this quarter, and the stock took a hit. With a $1.13 in dividends coming in just a short time, I took the opportunity to buy some more in the low $14.40's. It is a solid bank in a good market looking to grow. However, there is always the chance that a larger fish might come in and gobble them up. Either way, NWBI seems like an interesting play at this point and this price. IMHO.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    Seeking Alpha (for what it is worth) says Pfe has something like 70B overseas. If true, that may be playing a big part in Pfe's reported interest. I guess we will learn more very shortly. I am sure that AZN would get a nice premium. Reportedly something like a 100b offer was discussed. I believe that would price AZN in the $85 neighborhood if my math is correct. That will probably not be enough for AZN shareholders to buy into the deal.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    I just read a news report that says the PFE/AZN talks were discontinued.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 21, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    I was out this A.M. and I just saw the possible interest of PFE in AZ. I don't know exactly whether the deal would work, but I am not expert enough to know the synergies and pipelines involved. I believe bostonblackie may have part of the answer in PFE trying to put its foreign currency to work to avoid taxation. PFE is up a little on the news, but I may sell some PFE in my brokerage account and buy AZ. The dividend is good, and I will get a break on any foreign tax I pay. If the rumor is false, I guess I'll own a large pharma which seems to be in play. I'll let you know what and if I do anything.

  • cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    Frank, say what you want, but my "balanced portfolio" is working just fine. TRQ, my mining stock, actually had a nice day. Seems the Mongolian government appears ready to grant approval for the next round of mine development. It increases the likelihood of RIO making a bid for the part of the mine it doesn't own.

    I noticed your post ended with another political outburst. Funny, you assume certain things about people based on your own stereotypes. Oh well, like I said before, you are an interesting fellow when you can control your outbursts and stick to investing.

  • I believe the deal will keep TEVA from producing Celebrex until December. This would give Pfe another 6 months of exclusivity. That should save Pfe a considerable chunk of change.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    PFE and TEVA just reached an agreement whereby TEVA can produce a generic version of Celebrex starting in Dec. PFE's original patent was set to expire in May, so this actually is a positive development for PFE as I believe the market had priced in generic competition starting next month. PFE is reportedly toying with the idea of spinning off its off patent drugs like Lipitor and Celebrex into a separate generic company. This would be an interesting development that could add value to shareholders. With so many drugs coming off patent, PFE might be able to make it work. I used to own MYL in the twenties. Now it has doubled and shows no sign of stopping. With healthcare cost getting out of control, generics are definitely only going to grow.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    I made money with BMY and SGP a few years back. BMY bought one of the biotechs I owned, and they gave me shares. I sold them and made a nice chunk on the runup in utilities the last couple of years. BMY doubled during that time, so I would have done just as well or better just holding those shares. I like BMY, but I believe it is fairly priced right now. I also owned ALKS, but I sold too soon and missed the recent triple. I bought PFE in the mid twenties, and have enjoyed the dividend and the recent rise.

    My largest holdings now are in the banking sector and in GE. GE has really been good to me, and I think its spinoff of its financial component should add some investor value later this year. They have a tremendous order backlog and they are in all the key industrial areas.

    I played biotechs exclusively for many years, but now that I am older and financially secure, I have turned my attention to less speculative investments. I like OPK and CEMP because they have near term prospects, and I respect the companies and their management.

    Now, Frank, I have enjoyed talking to you about stocks. You are a pretty interesting guy when you leave the politics and the name calling out.

    Take care!

  • Reply to

    Looks like GALE is recovering...

    by frankfrazzano Apr 17, 2014 8:39 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Frank, doesn't the fact that Gale management dumped their shares while they were pumping their stock bother you a bit? I know the price is "cheap" but it keeps getting cheaper.

  • Reply to

    biotechs and pharma just keep getting hit.

    by cyoung8404 Apr 14, 2014 10:12 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    I like Pfe because I bought it a couple of years back at a much lower price. I own a sizeable chunk, so on paper I am up nicely when I factor in the price appreciation and the generous dividends. My cardiologist also told me he was very impressed with Eliquis, their new blood thinner. He believes it will prove to be the best and safest in class and is the only drug that can say it is better than warfarin. It is true that they are being hit with generic competition for drugs like Lipitor and Celebrex, but this has been largely priced in. Pfe has numerous promising drugs in late stage trials that have the potential to make up some of the money lost to generic competition. Pfe is loaded with cash after spinning off ZTS, so they are in a sweet spot for acquiring promising biotechs if they choose to. With the recent biotech bloodbath, they can probably make some attractive acquisitions at fire sale prices especially if the biotech is in need of money and facing having to issue new shares. I took notice when Pfe walked away from their deal with Cldx, and I took my Cldx profits at that time. Cldx had a great ride, but with their drugs still years away from approval, I believe the market has adjusted their valuation based on a realistic risk reward scenario. I hope Cldx does prevail because they are meeting a very critical need in the field of cancer treatment. I have two friends with brain cancer that are undergoing treatment.

  • Reply to

    Sold a portion pre-market @ $26.63

    by skellsmother Apr 17, 2014 8:22 AM
    cyoung8404 cyoung8404 Apr 17, 2014 8:26 AM Flag

    Nothing wrong with taking profits. I am holding because I like GE long term with their gigantic backlog and the coming financial unit IPO. GE has fallen a couple of bucks recently, so today's price seems very reasonable if not attractive. IMHO. Good luck!

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