You could be right, but that would mean that the stock value would be less than the asset value. ADM got a big boost from ethanol and blending of it is still required, but with the price of gasoline dropping, the price of ethanol has declined as well. The good news is that the transportation costs for ADM's has gone down considerably and food is still something everyone needs. So, my thinking is that as a long term hold (at least until it tops the channel again) ADM will have an up-side. I just have to be careful as to my entry point, so that the dividend justifies holding the investment.
Getting really close to my entry point. Typical of ADM, they just announced that they are going to buy another company, just in time to screw up the analysis of their financial statements and making year over year comparisons difficult.
I have invested in this stock for many year (off and on) and made a ton on it when they used to pay a 5% stock dividend. After they quit doing that and shifted to a cash dividend this stock has traded in in a channel. I am thinking that a good entry point will be somewhere around $32/$33 and exit around $44. Because ADM's management always manages to come up with some unforeseen expenses that swag earnings, I no long view this stock as a long term investment and intend to channel trade it while collecting a good dividend.