Heading Home By Paul Tsongas
New York, NY: Alfred A. Knopf, 1984
“...an old friend, Arnold Zack, wrote to me in a letter, “No one on his deathbed ever said, ‘I wish I had spent more time on my business.’”
this is usually attributed to Peter Lynch, but Arnold Zack is the earliest known source.
I'm 63. It focuses your attention when you know for a certainty that you have an expiration date that can't be reasoned with. It causes money to lose its power as you discover what has always been true - time is the true and only asset you have - when you know that you have little left you make hard decisions. If you have lots of money the wise person may decide to use their remaining time in ways that are difficult to explain to folks who have not enough money but unwisely think they have plenty of time. This week I'm attending the funeral of a 36 year old friend. Money meant nothing to him for the last year of his life.
Do I know why Barry decided to retire? No.
Is holding ONVO risky? Of course. Is this new? Nope. Why do we stay "in"? Because I believe ONVO will achieve significant revenues within the 24 months. So, yes, the stock is down. Happens all the time in markets.
I have written my take elsewhere...but basically the market is like 1907, 1921, 1929, 1937, 1987, 1997, 2001 and 2007. It's times like this that high beta stocks like early stage biotechs get crushed. Think of it as the reciprocal of going to the moon when times are great such as when 3d printers went nuts and ONVO went with it. That was crazy (and thus we sold many shares then), this too is crazy, but in my judgement the crazy is not done yet. We will be a buyer when I think it's time.
I'm describing my sense of the world. Just one brain among billions. My post described what *might* happen, and if a major institution does implode, that's a signal. People have amazingly short memories. I don't want it to happen, I don't need it to happen, but IF it happens, we'll be there to pick up lots more shares. We already have a goodly position, so from a risk management standpoint, I'd be a buyer if there's a cathartic macro revulsion. We are actually halfway there. There's a gigaton of bond liquidations going on and several big somebodies' are gettin stuffed to the gills with bonds. If another big shoe drops, we could have a waterfall downleg. Or not. If I knew the future you'd have to kill me :-)
exactly -add to that the collapse of commodity prices, notably oil, that is impacting all of the surplus account countries forcing them to liquidate investments the poster child of which is China, Closely followed by Saudi Arabia. What we are seeing is cash returning to cooling economies in exactly the same fashion as when blood flows to the core of a bodyIn response to hypothermia.
you have to buy extreme fear and sell agreed. We do not yet have extreme fear. If one or two major institutions collapse like Bear Stearns and/or Lehman Brothers, then three days or four days later might be the time to buy.
Organovo = 3D
Samsara = 2D
Apparently Organovo has a set of 2d cell lines of commercial research quality and is selling them since they can make significant $$ from them. Onvo likely wants to sell 3d only via Organovo brand yet be able to sell 2d prods without confusing the market positioning via this "Samsara" line. My 2 cents. YMMV, LOL
They probably are steadily accumulating already, but they don't want the price to rise since it is not in their interest to pay more. For my own part, I am waiting to see if there's another spike down from the China and Oil issues within the next two weeks or so. If it happens we are a buyer on high volume dumps days...ie micro and macro capitulation. Not likely IMO, but possible.
Thanks for this Z. It's also useful to see the context of the time ILMN hit the share price lows. This was when the NASDAQ was in a macro collapse, and we are at least in a serious macro correction right now, focused in China's slowdown, the collapse of oil prices, and the significant rise in the value of the dollar relative to emerging market currencies. As losses propagate through the system cash needs to be raised and riskier long-term investments that don't throw off a dividend are kicked to the curb and go on sale. If illumina had gone public such that their 2003 period Happened earlier perhaps in 1999, the share price would have been dramatically higher during that bubble. And of course this explains why ONVO hit $13 a share a couple years ago during the 3-D printer bubble. In other words the macroclimate has a dramatic effect on all stock prices, and our stock Is on sale.
equally and maybe even more importantly, Onvo tech could have identified the genetic characteristics of those who would react badly to Rezulin, and thus if say 5% of the population were hurt by it, the drug could have been made available to the other 95%. (Rezulin may not be the best example of this, but the point is that new drugs will not have to work perfectly in 100% of the human biome to get approvals. If a drug saves 80%, has no effect on 15% and makes 5% sick, Then it can be known in advance who should get the drug and who should NOT get the drug. Today, it's all a ridiculous #$%$ shoot. We are truly still in the dark ages, but the light is breaking out all over the place -- there will be more change in medicine in the next 5 years than in all previously recorded history.
Still here, still long. As I've said too many times - this is a multiyear hold for us. No facts have changed except for the better. Every recent purchase and some sales we've made were profitable, and we still have 2/3rds of our original position purchased in 2009. e7Navy, you are right. When ONVO is producing steady revenues and folks begin to believe in the hockey stick it will take off IMO. For those who did tax loss selling, best of luck. We are a non-profit, so tax loss selling doesn't influence us.
remember when christmas advertising began after thanksgiving LOL? Now it starts before/at/ halloween. my thesis is just like black friday is now a whole week long due to game theorist retailers deciding to be the first mover, and then all seek to move earlier, so a similar thing happens with tax selling and buying in anticipation of others. the so called santa claus rally creeps earlier year by year.
perhaps tax loss selling is done(ish), and people are positioning themselves for the so called Santa Claus rally. I've actually been expecting this. sometimes the wind is against you, sometimes it's with you, but one thing never changes - the wind always changes.