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Kinder Morgan, Inc. Message Board

dabqs 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 11, 2014 10:06 AM Member since: Jan 24, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Back of envelope NOI projection for ACAS

    by donedealer Aug 9, 2014 9:10 PM
    dabqs dabqs Aug 11, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    Done, I think you are ultimately going to have to compare the post-reorg ACAS to its peer company group. If that group is trading at or around NAV, then ACAS likely will as well. In ACAS's case, you will likely have pieces that must be valued relative to peers. In sum, I think you wind up much closer to NAV than its present valuation. Certainly, ACAS management would not go through the expense and headache of a reorg if they didn't feel VERY strongly that an elimination or severe narrowing of the discount to NAV and vast simplification of the business structure would be the result. Both the reorg and the simplification of the business structure work to pull the share price toward NAV.

  • Reply to

    Distribution from 6.9% to 4.7% Dividend

    by chuck11262004 Aug 10, 2014 7:42 PM
    dabqs dabqs Aug 11, 2014 12:57 AM Flag

    By my calculation, 100 shares of KMP not earns $552 in distribution income. After the roughly 2.2 KMI shares to be exchanged be 1 KMP share you own, and if you also take the $10.77 in cash distribution in STOCK instead of in cash, you 100 shares of KMP will wind up being right about 250 shares of KMI. In 2015, with a $2.00 dividend on your 250 KMI shares, you would earn $500 in dividend income. Now true, that $500 is taxed at 15% for most people as it is no longer distributed as MLP income, but the offset here is that that $2.00 dividend will increase annually at likely nearly TWICE the rate as your distribution income would have increased under the KMP MLP format. So in the LONG RUN this is likely going to be a nicely beneficial move for KMP holders. Of great interest is that with the new deal, KMP holders will now benefit GREATLY from the fact that the Incentive Rights payment of I think 50% will DISAPPEAR. That means that all growth acquisitions will now directly 100% benefit the former KMP holders instead of just 50% previously.
    I would add that this puts the succeeding company ON PAR with EPD which also has NO Incentive Rights payments DRAINING off income from MLP holders. As such, with the simplified structure and NO Incentive Right to be paid, I think we may see a substantial, gradual boost in the succeeding company's valuation such that its price elevates and its dividend yield drop to be commensurate with that of EPD (this will leave two large granddaddies in this business, the new KMI and EPD).
    So for the long term holders I think the combination of the higher compounding of the dividend growth going forward in the years ahead along with the lift in the KMI stock price will work out to MORE THAN offset the loss of tax protection from the MLP format in terms of the tax protected distribution income.

    Dabqs

  • Reply to

    Hail Mary acquisition

    by fundamentalsaretantamount Jul 30, 2014 8:32 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 30, 2014 4:03 PM Flag

    Sorry! I should have written a 1 billion revenue company instead of writing a 1 billion marketcap company! Given time, FTD will ALSO be a 1 billion market cap company. But a 1 billion + revenue company will surely put FTD on the radar screen of a LOT more institutional investors than they have been as a sub 1 billion revenue company. Today's news bodes quite well for FTD in all respects!

  • Reply to

    Hail Mary acquisition

    by fundamentalsaretantamount Jul 30, 2014 8:32 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 30, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    continued 1/16/14 post early this year.

    Dabqs

  • Reply to

    Hail Mary acquisition

    by fundamentalsaretantamount Jul 30, 2014 8:32 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 30, 2014 10:05 AM Flag

    Bingo John Daley 404.

    You can't fix stupid. Excellent move today by FTD. besides what I mention in my new topic post today, this will catapult FTD right into the spotlight of the institutional investor community the new FTD. Prior to today, FTD was a very lightly covered and lightly followed equity. That all changes today and the herd of Institutional Investors will begin the stampede into FTD as it is now a 1 billion plus market cap company which will move to consolidate the floral/gift industry as I said they would in my

  • So, this morning we get news that FTD has embarked on exactly the course I forecast that they would. They have started with a sizeable competitor and nearly doubled the revenue base with today's acquisition. Yet they retain a LOT of flexibility on their balance sheet to continue rolling up the floral industry. That Liberty's John Malone--one of the sharpest investment minds and business operator's around--signed on to the deal bodes VERY WELL for the future of this combined entity as Liberty retains roughly a 1/3rd interest in the combined business on a go forward basis.
    Here is my post from 1/16/14 earlier this year--

    From the presentation on Monday, "The floral industry is highly fragmented and ripe for consolidation". "It takes a company with the brand recognition and market share such as FTD to be the consolidator."
    FTD is going to embark on a methodical buyout consolidation of the floral industry. One of the points they stressed repeatedly in the presentation was that they have a low debt position after the spin off, which, to the intuitive observer, gives them the space on their balance sheet to consolidate this industry. So, as the market is valuing the company today on its stated financials and past growth history (very average, typical, methodical business growth), when it becomes apparent to the market that FTD, if I am right, embarks on an acquisition binge to consolidate the highly currently fragmented floral industry, such a plan will significantly boost the earnings growth rate of FTD and the market will award the FTD stock a much higher PE multiple. Further evidence of this prospect lies in the fact that FTD, post-spin from UNTD, will NOT pay a dividend. What they are saying by this non-dividend for a company that would be a typical dividend payer) is that they see very significant growth opportunities ahead, and as such, they will retain ALL cash flow (hence, no dividend) to use for acquisitions and business growth opportunities. I think I recall

  • Reply to

    The 20% rule: Options vs Buybacks...

    by arthaiss Jul 1, 2014 6:54 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 1, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    NMB--- How about commenting on my point about whether management deserves to-- via stock option grants which management controls the doling out of-- to grant THEMSELVES nearly 20% of OUR company when they nearly BANKRUPTED us? I don't think they deserve that reward, nor in that amount, and certainly it is RARE in corporate America even among managements who DO NOT nearly bankrupt the company to see such EXCESSIVE stock option grants to the extent it reaches nearly 20% of shares outstanding.

  • Reply to

    The 20% rule: Options vs Buybacks...

    by arthaiss Jul 1, 2014 6:54 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 1, 2014 8:00 AM Flag

    Should read: " award itself nearly 20% of OUR company via employee stock option grants."

  • Reply to

    The 20% rule: Options vs Buybacks...

    by arthaiss Jul 1, 2014 6:54 AM
    dabqs dabqs Jul 1, 2014 7:57 AM Flag

    Does anybody else here feel at least mildly upset that ACAS senior management, after nearly BANKRUPTING our company, feels itself so worthy and deserving as to award ITSELF nearly 20% of OUR company?

  • Reply to

    Yippie

    by yourbestfriendintheworld May 27, 2014 5:45 PM
    dabqs dabqs May 28, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Continued---So Jeffy777, please be so kind as to post a picture of your wife so we can all see whether she was worth your "consummating the deal" over!!!

    Dabqs

  • Reply to

    Yippie

    by yourbestfriendintheworld May 27, 2014 5:45 PM
    dabqs dabqs May 28, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    jeffy777,

    You write " It reminds me of the time just before purposing to my wife, she liked me but the commitment of the engagement ring got her to really speak proudly and boldly me about me and she was committed to buy all the shares of Jeffy stock. ;). (ACAS just needs to put a ring on it!)

KMI
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