From a Yahoo blog ... a dated, nice summary:
Gliead’s Harvoni: Two drugs combined into a single pill swallowed once per day. Very convenient. Highly effective with hepatitis C cure rates exceeding 95% for almost all patients. Price: $63,000 to $94,500 for an 8-week and 12-week course of therapy, respectively. That works out to price $1,125 per pill per day.
Abbvie’s Viekirax/Exviera: Three drugs (plus a blood level booster) combined into six pills. Patients take 4 pills in the morning and 2 pills at night, so not as convenient. Highly effective with hepatitis C cure rates exceeding 95% for almost all patients. Price: ??? A burning question.
Current investor expectations have Abbvie setting the list price of Viekirax/Exviera essentially on par with, or just slightly below, Harvoni. Behind the scenes, however, Abbvie is also expected to offer larger discounts/rebates to insurance companies in order to win market share. How much is hard to pinpoint, but some analysts believe the net price of Viekirax/Exviera could be 10-20% below Harvoni.
Insurance companies and pharmacy benefit managers like Express Scripts have made a big stink about their inability to pay for the crush of hepatitis C patients seeking cures. Next year, investors will be paying close attention to see if payers restrict use of Viekirax/Exviera and Harvoni and/or demand bigger discounts to keep the drugs on formulary."
SIX PILLS a day ( vs. one a day) will create some meaningful percentage of treatment failures, meaning a repeat of therapy. Physicians are experienced in "missed" dosages and would tend to favor one-a-day. In the meantime, Gilead will likely continue negotiations with Express Scripts. They have remained flexible in global market strategy to build market share.
In a globe that is challenged to find near-term growth, revenues for governments and jobs for citizens in many countries will be a struggle. Solar efficiency gains are not quite at parity just yet -- it is coming -- so grants and subsidies are still in play by governments. In the meantime, consolidation among too many solar panel makers is still not happening -- thus creating dump-off margin erosion. The one bright spot is the US, but tariffs do play against CSIQ. In Canada, CSIQ is soon going to file a response to the dumping complaint up there. Finally, we have an analyst that says the CSIQ backlog for the start of 2015 will be dominated in panel supply, at low margin -- in effect, he doesn't believe the $4+ in EPS for '15.
I accept that enhanced manufacturing capacity accelerates book-and-bill timing. IMO, the Net Neutrality debate has stalled the 1Gb plans of major providers. In the meantime, we have a run rate of $55 mil and 40 cents.
As a micro-cap stock that acts like a micro-cap, CLFD can be volatile as the news remains scarce between quarter releases. Tiny firms with HUGE customers never want to get caught with poor service and worse, out-of-stock inventory positions. The one piece of news that gets my juices flowing -- the PR on a secondary manufacturing site. The firm had just put (within the last six months) its MN manufacturing expansion in place and now we read they signed up more capacity. Apart from last q's report of 18% growth in other "greenfield" providers and knowing that Google is working toward 30+ additional zones, we have no known rationale for pulling the trigger, that fast, on a second expansion. I'll be looking for that rationale in tomorrow's release. All the best.
Not really concerned with the micro-timing. Three factors set up the macro-long: 1. The solar cycle is just getting underway. 2. CSIQ is generating significant operating margin leverage. 3. What will be the PE and PEG assigned to CSIQ by the market over the next 12 months? At this point, with earnings running $4+ a share, the stock is deeply undervalued and any re-visits to sub-$30 will invite me, once again, to add share count.
Because the Sept '13 quarter was a historical high ... a result of big backlog build to $10mil in the spring of '13 ... the y-o-y growth will, no doubt, decline against that comparison hurdle. More important, though, will be continued backlog growth for the quarter ... with the potential that big customers are ramping up installations -- the rationale for the plant expansion. That spring '13 jump in backlog (from $3mm to $10mm) was the impetus to $20+ in pps.
A decent backlog of $4 to $5mm will, imo, support the current price range. When (not if, assuming competition is not yet at their heels) the big players show up, the $20+ will be the new range --healthy margins, zero debt and large customer mix in 1G build-out are too compelling. All the best.
My last post on the GT board: think back over the last year and the many patents filed by Apple that essentially "captured" GT's technology under their own name. At the time, wondering when the heck did Apple become a crystal manufacturing expert, I concluded "what a great partner with massive, deep pockets who could afford global patent defense on 'lil ole GT's behalf." Absent the plan and discussion from GT on restructuring, that partnership may have impaired GT's future, beyond consumer electronics. Some patents were about ion deposition, about enhancing dielectric properties, about bonding layered crystals. IMO, that IP was worth many billions in future markets in solar, in semi-conductors, and many other massive applications.
No longer with any skin in the game, I will listen to what TG says about the future ... a kind of post-mortem autopsy of lessons to be learned.
aacht, beans ... Rick (who left Sonus with a bag of exercised options) may have seen the "Wing and a Prayer" but he likely jumped for a career change. He is now a research analyst and he is out of corporate accounting/finance. He was one, smart cookie in my book -- a quick learn with polish.
GT bit off more than they could chew. TG got a "pass" in last November's horrible results as the Apple deal came to the rescue against dismal prospects for all of 2014. From last spring's discussion of the brittleness of sapphire (stronger -- yes, scratch-resistant -- yes, but still prone to shatter at certain force/angles), I often thought that the phone was a low-margin sideshow. Hyperion bonding of sapphire to a substrate may be the ticket, but I think Apple has the patents. Flip-side, we did not see any hyperion, silicone, DSS or merlin orders for 3Q. Thus, Mesa may have missed the covenants on quality and/or quantity and there was no back-up equipment orders. Apple pulled the plug. I lost 12% of my portfolio, but even S&P still had a 4-star rating on GT --- who knew, beyond the big money shorts? All the best. I'll be looking for you out there on new prospects.
Well, this is terrible news. It makes TG the worst kind of CEO, a visionary optimist who bites off more than he can chew and, along the way, cashes in on options. Ultimately, shareholders are, indeed, empty bagholders. It is one more of investing lessons about broken trust. So much for his statement about "protecting" his credibility. All the best.
As an aside ... the news said that epi-genetics was a key in future oncology treatments. In effect, cancer cells are a "broken" cell and software-designed creation of weak viruses will kill the broken cells and leave the healthy cells alone. Novel, low-cost ($1,000 a patient) approach.
No one yet has a handle on "the card business." A long-forgotten named analyst offered last winter that the one thing that will move the needle in significant operating margin growth for Apple is -- transaction fees. He expressed back then, limited growth numbers for Apple's other products (limit as high, single-digits) but that sheer volume of transactions could bring huge margins. It is noted that Ebay gains over a billion bucks in op margin on three billion in paypal revenues. Three media articles on the PayPal spin-off all cited Apple's deals with a broad swath of players as the opening catalyst to the PayPal decision (Icahn push also cited). Forest lost among the trees, imo.
Two cents: saw a piece of news yesterday that startled me -- 27 drugs were approved by the FDA last year and the numbers of new drugs per year have been on a steep decline for decades. The cost per approval, from discovery through approval, is beyond prohibitive. It is a simple rationale for this long but the news underpins a fundamental approach -- own a small piece of an undervalued growth company with a pipeline that serves large numbers of global-afflicted with effective treatments. I will "test" the rationale when GILD hits the S&P fair value (good grief ... a $73 gap!).
Like everyone, I don't know anymore than anyone else. I own shares for the prospect of '15 / '16 growth with '14 as a transition year, and 4Q as the starting gun, the beginning of the ramp onto revenue levels of solar quarters ... and beyond. I doubt that TG is coming out with a set of excuses as to why his six-week-old guidance has drastically dropped. 4Q is about equipment sales coming out of backlog.
What a wild ride here, Hap ... but not historically unusual for capital-equip-focused, GT. Looking at the thirteen analyst guesstimates for 2015, we have a range from a loss of nineteen cents to earnings of a dollar-twenty. Based upon those extreme guesses, GT is either hugely overbought or it is hugely oversold. Gaynor (left in Feb) who, with Tom and sales folks, would sit down and hammer out the forecasts, customer by customer, and attach probabilities to each item. In response to an analyst question, TG interjects a statement in that August cc about protecting his "conservative" reputation in forecasting. The pps drop at hand now says that the street would prefer timely forecasts over accurate information. Its a shame ... many who got in with i-phone stars in their eyes have lost precious funds and left, never knowing the company. All the best.
Bought more this morning ... but then, I am not a trader. The only way I can win in my amateur, small-retail skill set/life style is to discover firms, ahead of the market, that are innovating, know them as best I can, test them from conference to conference, and look ahead and test the pathway to the result. Is there doubt as to whether the pps will ever new highs again? Is their technology a set of solutions for global issues? Do they have an "edge" in cumulative expertise in their field? Do they have a solid product footprint of historical quality/performance in the landscape? Have they developed partnerships with global players? Does their past record indicate that they have delivered on their vision?
Each to his own risk/reward strategy. As an aside, dem ... can you explain again the relationship of shorting against the backdrop of convertible notes? All the best and thanks.
If the 4Q ramp remains in guidance AND 2015 guidance is strong, the firm quickly moves away from "transition" of under-water losses and into healthy, profitable long-term growth. The tech that GT is building upon will earn it a premium PE ratio. Given the conditional "if," when the price moves up is unknown ... could be later this week, wording in the 3Q CC, or releases of a few, massive equipment orders. A few years back, they took in $1.1B in the space of three weeks (Feb of '10?). Media expectation is all about Apple. Remember, TG went with direct-supply sapphire to smooth out the gap between orders for the capital equipment. Beyond Apple, Hyperion, and Merlin, folks are forgetting that they have a sizable prospects -- solar Malaysia, ASF furnace backlog, and OCC, phase 4 (Korea, solar). Caveat -- TG has a serious test of execution in managing multiple and diverse product lines into global markets. Hopefully he has the right staff on hand.
aah ... the long's lament. Despite a consistent, superb track record of positive surprises when business is ramping, Tom has called a couple of conferences when the picture gets murky -- the dry-up of DSS orders and the closing of the HiCz pilot plant. I see this conference as a sharing of business strategy with stakeholders.
Best guess #1 on the conference from a post of last week was a need for additional capital to fund R&D. They have a couple of hundred million in cash but the Apple-accounting complexity is tricky for me. The license agreement with EVI of Europe is to create a manufacturing process and a market for nano deposition onto substrates. HiCz gets to 22 to 24% solar efficiencies where deposition moves the needle beyond "parity." No one has yet bought the St. Louis facility. I didn't see any Merlin, HiCz or Hyperion orders in this quarter.
I see Tom pushing out core revenues a bit and being a bit less optimistic on timing. He has no control of capital equipment orders and he may be sapphire-dependent a little longer than expected. It remains to be healthy to have Apple as a partner. Interesting thought -- in a nine-month sea of media rumor on the phone, he knew all along where the Apple-sapphire was going. Methinks that Apple and GT remain focused on the other beneficial properties of sapphire in a layered screen. Now for this prospect alone, transferable to other applications, imo, a long position is justified. It is a true game changer to many electronic devices.
Chinese manufacturing, to my mind, has not yet consolidated and they may be squeezing out the last penny of cost before investing in new equipment, particularly if "the next level" in efficiency is only a year or two away. But I think the engineer in Tom will be solid on product developments and the size and quality of the cyclical turn in solar. We shall hear, soon. All the best.
Tough to say one way or another ... as a perennial high beta stock, Sonus has long been good for traders. If'n you "back up the truck" when it is obviously low and dump at the near highs (now the range puts it over $4), then you are rewarded. The lack of news makes it a pretty dull holding. Noteworthy is that big money largely decided to place their bets elsewhere -- Empire exiting with a significant gain (bulk of cost average at $1.80s and Legatum with a huge loss (bulk at mid $6s). Apparently they also see a grind ahead as opposed to exciting prospects. Of course, would like to see a big tech grab them up and absorb them into their products, ala Acme. The price now would be attractive. Dolan would be ecstatic. We'll see. All the best.