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Cisco Systems, Inc. Message Board

dachmeister4u 104 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 58 minutes ago Member since: Dec 15, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 1 hour 58 minutes ago Flag

    Thanks for taking the time to offer insight.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 20 hours ago Flag

    The moat around their HepC franchise just became impregnable. With CURE rates in the mid to high nineties, simple dosage scheme, pan-genomic coverage, and better-than-label safety ... this pretty much puts a stake into the heart of Merck and Abbvie schemes of grabbing market share by slashing price or by patent lawsuit schemes. With HepB (November) and large-market NASH solutions (?2017/18?) coming, Gilead is becoming the gold standard in liver diseases, much like Pfizer dominated antibiotics (penicillin and tetracycline) in the 40s/50s.

    It was the introduction of Abbvie's ViePak in late 2014 that struck the first blow to take Gilead out of the $110+ level (Giants Merck and Abbvie will push the king off the hill). I look for a positive earnings surprise for Q2 (the Merck accrual reversal, for a starter, then increased penetration into state-controlled HepC reimbursement programs). All the best.

  • Reply to

    Its crazy how low fslr is,

    by mikansdad Jun 28, 2016 4:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 22 hours ago Flag

    Newbie here, trying to evaluate FSLR, molling over the following questions:
    #1. What global solar manufacturer product has the highest efficiency for energy capture?
    #2. CEO talks 90% of growth in late 2016/2017 will come from international. Can FSLR compete on price/efficiency/service against low-cost Chinese manufacturers? Rising dollar may be the short thesis.
    #3. Yieldco 8P3 creates some confusion. SWAG: From a stockholder return estimate, better to be a FSLR stockholder over the next two years, or an 8P3 holder?
    Thanks.

  • Reply to

    Bought

    by jethro_tull_flute Jun 27, 2016 10:10 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    The Dow dropped 27% in a single Monday in 1987. I called my siblings back then and told them to buy first thing Tuesday morning. Common return-on-investing sense comes to the foreground of sentiment pretty fast. British politics does not control the digital evolution, much less the Skyworks' run-rate to adjusted $8 in 12 to 16 months. I added as well.

  • Reply to

    GILD now at 6x earnings

    by jserper Jun 25, 2016 3:42 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 27, 2016 10:03 AM Flag

    More on point ... the surprise 12 cent miss in earnings ... and is now surprise-reversed by the judge. I don't disagree with Trader Professionals that tides going-out will lower all boats but if your are into marine design, Gilead on sale is compelling. Name a global public company with better ROA and op margin. Global liver and HIV care does not shut down over British sovereignty. The global HepB market opens for Gilead's in November. Gilead at 2014 prices: buy, hold, step back from the trading screen and rest easy. In the meantime for the near-term forecast ... lawsuits are prying open state care plans in pan-genome HepC ... and their recent HIV innovation will take back what share was lost. In summary, the thesis is intact -- premier fundamentals, blockbuster healthcare solutions at a massively oversold discount.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 21, 2016 9:30 AM Flag

    I like your balanced view ... thanks.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 17, 2016 8:44 AM Flag

    With your new board ID since last month ... tell me about the rationale of your deep respect for MA first ... before it was lost.

  • Reply to

    It's Brexit on top of everything

    by c.ddule Jun 16, 2016 10:22 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 17, 2016 8:30 AM Flag

    Apple encountering friction in China on patents, on-going drop in the yuan/dollar exchange, whether central banks are pushing on a string while highly-indebted governments are keeping austerity fiscal programs locked in the basement --- yep, plenty of blocks in place for the wall of worry.

  • Reply to

    buyout/merger imminent

    by mark_anthony123 Jun 14, 2016 8:50 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 14, 2016 3:05 PM Flag

    Dry and droll presenter ... you might be right. His frat buddy may have called for help -- we know nothing. He had a 189,000 share stake at hand. I assume he walked away from options, as well.

  • Reply to

    OPK to delist on NYSE and resist on NASDAQ

    by fukarwechief Jun 13, 2016 9:42 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 13, 2016 1:09 PM Flag

    Potentially puts them into the IBB sometime after launch into major results ... the globe's major player within ETFs for American biotech.

  • Reply to

    Cybersecurity

    by needhope2016 Jun 10, 2016 12:47 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 13, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    Forecast for Q1 2015 was $71mil ... actual was $50mil ... and June-ending, 2015 quarter wasn't much better at $54mil.

    The fiasco occurred well after Ray harped about what a great hand he had been dealt. I'll bet that when the stock dropped from $18 to $7, he came within a whisker of getting canned. But the board, knowing the decade of lost credibility, likely optioned to do nothing -- knowing another CEO would take the pps down even deeper/longer. At this point, the forecasted adjusted eps is the support. Getting to a higher pps ($12 and up) will only come from solid beats-and-raises on sales/earnings and forecasts. He had finally zipped the bubbly talk. Either drive your market through compelling pricing and hand-holding service or be a real CEO and manage what the market is giving you ... take the headcount down another 200 to a Gaap profit.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 10, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Two-cent pump: The combination of superb efficacy and safety from VB 111 against pernicious recurrent glioblastoma, in tandem with two factors -- Fast Track Status from the FDA and "hungry" pharma looking for growth -- tells me that the pps will not stay single digit for very long. Common sense, as a starter -- Genetech's management (Roche's Avastin, listed as #7 in sales globally,) will take a serious look at VB111. This will get very interesting before the year ends.

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!! 68,000,000 shares short.

    by ajsuff Jun 9, 2016 5:27 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 8:45 PM Flag

    Thanks for the confident view, from a person with a solid handle -- iron ore strong. Arcelor provides a long term contract. My naivity is that Arcelor is far over-expanded, heavily in debt and pfft! ... there goes a key, North American, long-term stream of CLF revenue, displaced by Asian steel with non-CLF ore.

    OT Aside: tourist a mile down into Minnesota's Souder mine where the ore content was 67% (and higher) and you could weld rock-to-rock ... closed in 1956 to taconite mining process. Amazing history there.

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!! 68,000,000 shares short.

    by ajsuff Jun 9, 2016 5:27 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 6:56 PM Flag

    35% of the float ... a book I just finished on expert career shorters ... they avoided stocks with high short positions specifically the result of a fear of getting burned in a squeeze. Question in my own mind is whether the major steel makers will go BK. CLF is in a race to cut costs and survive ... and the latest news is decent.

  • Reply to

    Which stock is the better pick?

    by dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 2:28 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 6:43 PM Flag

    Adding because it was dropped: While I accept that throwing a long-range touchdown is a lot harder than it looks (comment by QRVO mgmt on getting into BAW filters?) ... the question remains: is Skyworks' tech prowess ("elegant" multi-feature architecture) a counter-balance to QRVO's superior posture in BAW? Or am I missing a key point?

    BTW: Malik missed SWKS at 20% non-mobile in that summary. It grew another 5% to 25% last quarter and Dave was out of the gate with several iterations of new non-mobile design wins (Cadillac for '17, Iotera, etc.). Thanks C.D for the guide to the BA/Merrill conference.

  • Reply to

    Which stock is the better pick?

    by dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 2:28 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 6:41 PM Flag

    Malik has commented before (last fall?) about Skyworks having an uphill against carrier aggregation. Flip-side is the extract of the last CC, talking about increased content in Huawei's flagship phone: I'm particularly pleased by the fact that it's low-, mid-, and high-band PAD. There is power management, there is wi-fi, there is pretty sophisticated switching architectures we're controlling. We're using an architecture that's allowing us to control power management levels and voltage across all bands … it's an architecture that our customers see simply as being elegantly easy for them to use in the sense that it's very highly integrated. It tunes up at the antenna and saves them point of current and size.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jun 9, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    Candidate A: Op Margin -1.11% ... ROA .46% ... ROE -.52% PEG of .93 (almost fair value)
    Candidate B: Op Margin 33.8% ... ROA 19.7% ... ROE 31.22% PEG of .63 (significantly undervalued).

    By these measures, smart money would say Candidate B is a better stock to own. Candidate A is mismanaging capital resources ... and Citigroup is telling you to pick lower market cap Candidate A?.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 8, 2016 7:04 AM Flag

    I expect that you are right, Ralph. I was just channeling Nikita Kruschev at the United Nations a few years ago. Wasting more time here... I was once told that a corporation eventually reflects the personality of the CEO. Baloney, I said ... way back. Then with time, I saw it happen with three firms. Which brings me to Milligan. The close of yesterday's WSJ -- paraphrasing his focus: "If I stay close to the science, then the team stays close to the science." I like that ... a lot. Back on task -- the near- and long-term value of Gilead went up substantially yesterday, the price did not. Big victory for the HepC franchise.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 7, 2016 3:57 PM Flag

    Darn ... worth at least (10x$0.12). But the day was an uphill fight against Biogen's impact upon the IBB etf. Will rest to bang another day.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jun 7, 2016 1:10 PM Flag

    Market over-reaction, as usual. They reported over a half-billion in GAAP cash generation for the quarter. Classic first quarter newbie CEO action -- clear out the closet ($330mil in intangibles write-offs), write off the Philador mess (SG&A bumped up $200Mil) and then ... under-promise on future earnings. Define the non-core and dump it to pay off some debt. Then you are a hero by September reporting when GAAP eps is positive and adjusted PE supports a 10 handle.

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