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Clearfield, Inc. Message Board

dachmeister4u 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 8:46 AM Member since: Dec 15, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Just a guess before the report

    by dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 7:38 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 29, 2015 8:46 AM Flag

    Nope ... guessed wrong. We have another quiet quarter coming up next, with the bulk of growth in the third and fourth quarters. I'll be looking for a backlog rise at the next report. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    YOY earnings are up 48% (3.08EPS vs 2.08) ... current PE is 17 ... mmm, by classic definition, Mr. Market is undervaluing Apple stock. Methinks that Apple pressed the "reset" button and we are now off to grind out a higher plateau. We have four opportunities looking into 2015: the IBM partnership for stealing growth in enterprise from ?Softie? (Apple is largely now consumer-focused), the iPhone carrier upgrade programs that will continue to proliferate, ApplePay as a gradual but sheer-volume growing wave of GLOBAL small but high-margin rollout, and least/last ... the watch which Tim said he has been wearing and "he can't live without."

    Catch the irony of IBM and Apple working together in enterprise, where Softie is now highly focused with Office 365 and cloud? Bill wrote the first xT software for Blue for $750K and walked away with the program under his arm ... setting up clones to steal Blue's highly focused PC market. All the best.

  • Reply to

    Goldman and Barcaly's bearish on oil

    by wantstoretireearly Jan 28, 2015 1:46 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    I think the missing piece of the correlation between solar and oil is natural gas. It is recently down to $2.88- from $5+ in a year and it has a direct impact upon the solar parity hurdle of utility/electricity production. To my mind, fracking also creates an abundance of natural gas. Until LNG terminals are built on the northeast and south coasts (creating a bid market for excess American NG), with attendant feeding pipelines, or until solar panels exceed 24% efficiency (which hopefully may be sooner than we think), solar will likely remain dependent upon gubment help, and gubment, in general, is deep in debt. Just saying... having been burned a few times on both my optimism for solar ... as well the attraction of fundamentals vs. Mr. Market. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 7:38 PM Flag

    I guess that the backlog rises to $5mil and that rise will be the saving grace that keeps the stock range-bound from $11&change to $13&change. Moreover, if the "Field Report" alludes to significant '15 growth (CinBell and Google SE, usa) in a 2015 outlook slide, then I extend the guess that ... the pps grinds higher than the range as a profitable, domestic-only growth company, winning in an evolving but obvious opportunity to capture ticked off cable customers. Thanks to Niles and Flyer for hanging in there and supplying the basis for the speculation.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 10:31 AM Flag

    There is reason for continued optimism if you listen to, or read the conference call highlights. A few comments largely ignored by the media headlines include:
    The partnership with IBM is a deep commitment with Blue to bring Apple into a strong position within enterprise. Cook offered that the work going on with Blue is "profound."
    Over half of the globe's phone activations between 12/19 and 12/25 were for an iPhone.
    ApplePay is a massive, global opportunity where most see it as domestic. They are still in the first inning on Pay. While global Pay is complex because of different and diverse partners, the challenge is do-able for Apple, in his viewpoint.
    There are three segments of smartphone opportunities still out there -- an enormous base of upgrades from older iphones, Android switching, and, outside the US, a large number of folks with basic phones. They ramped up currency hedging last summer and are pleased, thus far. You cannot hedge every currency in the globe.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jan 28, 2015 8:29 AM Flag

    That $150B to be returned to investors through 2015 ... well, the prospect just got a lot bigger, raising the NPV of a share of Apple. And the hits just keep on coming. Loving that Great American Story as the globe's all-time, historical record of quarterly contribution in stockholder equity. Congratulations to Mr. Cook and the Apple employees.

  • Reply to

    Cincinnati Bell

    by niles_2010 Jan 6, 2015 8:40 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 27, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Niles, thanks for the heads up. I did a search on the relationship and found a confirmation of the relationship between CLFD and CinBell ... came up with a March 2013 article: In addition to its core market of Tier 3s, Clearfield's largest customer is Cincinnati Bell (NYSE: CBB), which uses the manufacturer's Clearview Cassette platform throughout its fiber network. All the best.

  • Reply to

    my take is that the pricing

    by fbertital Jan 24, 2015 3:05 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 26, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    In quick summary, then ... it is your opinion that GILD is setting itself up to be the GO-TO therapy for global HepC, with pricing structures scattered about to capture the vast bulk of the global market ... and end up with a handsome level of net income on higher and higher volumes? This is a paradigm shift in pharmaceutical marketing. Instead of coming out with Viagra and owning the market for a few years, then battling me-too chemistry with a massive sales/marketing effort ... then battling with manufacturing patents as generics prepare for start-up. Gilead was doing 31% net income, largely from HIV therapy. I would love to see the McKinsey pro-forma evaluations on the projections on earnings comparisons -- conventional vs. new paradigm, inclusive of savings in legal and selling expense. Or, maybe this is not your opinion.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 22, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    At this morning's opening, the stock was at a forward 12 month PE of 17. In its brief, multi-year history, the lowest PE for FFIV was a 16 and that was in the spring of '09 -- the nadir of the crisis. The street too often over-corrects, both on the up and on the down.

  • Reply to

    over-reaction

    by andrew.marchese Jan 21, 2015 4:37 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 22, 2015 9:25 AM Flag

    I think that FFIV is a good, long-term investment. They have PLENTY of competition, but seems to this naive investor, that they have superior product. There is an upside here that the street is ignoring -- they have an aggressive buyback program, expanded in this latest announcement. Looking at cash flow and the balance sheet, they have been socking away profits into buybacks, while avoiding taking on debt. As an aside, I noted this morning a report that France is asking large technology companies to help them in security monitoring. Snowden is trumped.

  • Reply to

    over-reaction

    by andrew.marchese Jan 21, 2015 4:37 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 22, 2015 8:50 AM Flag

    Given the growth in pipeline partly the new creation as well as deals slipping, with your guidance that product growth rate is -- continues to decelerate to somewhere near high single digits when you looked at your guidance. How do you get this back up and why isn't the guidance for the March quarter better just given the buildup of the $1 million-plus projects?

    The answer was that the CEO preferred to be conservative in guidance. The street hates uncertainty in times when black swans may be in the area (unknowable unknowns of global oil price decline, of Greece in a straight-jacket, of currency wars, of the roadmap of debt supercycle).

  • Reply to

    New York State Broadband

    by niles_2010 Jan 20, 2015 11:01 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 21, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    We have a report of Google investing in SpaceX, presumably for satellite as internet transmission. My guess is that Google will go after several options to determine what, in practical dollars and "sense" makes for the optimum venue into residential.

  • Reply to

    why has this stock tanked?

    by carinecachorro Jan 20, 2015 3:16 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 21, 2015 9:38 AM Flag

    I think Mr. Market is merely saying that all energy is tanking, that energy taxes to governments are tanking, and therefore money for renewable subsidies is disappearing. The oversold trend has been in place since November when Axiom Capital's analyst stated that CSIQ is eating through its premium-margin projects with only low-margin panel backlog leftover for 2015 revenues. Forward earnings growth is what counts.

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the regulars?

    by smitty4901 Jan 13, 2015 1:01 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 20, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Best to you, as well, Hap. These certainly are interesting times ... making me pretty darn jumpy. While I still continue to buy green bananas, for all of the debt and growth-scrambling around the globe, I need to remain conservative in my investments. Yep .. got ripped off by our snake oil salesman ... but, I blame myself for ignoring my own decision rule. Living is learning. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 16, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    THERE IT IS ... and thanks. That low estimate makes sense. Will check it out. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 16, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    That analyst in 2012 acknowledge the positive impact upon the ecosystem, but alluded to a tiny % of fee income with each transaction -- essentially a low cost boost to operating earnings. APP revenues are small potatoes, but they are growing op margin at a faster rate than any other product, incl. phones. I am hoping some bright analyst has dug in with Visa, MC, and AMEX and come up with a five-year projection on iPay impact/insight.

  • Just curious that with so many invested and knowledge base so broad ... has anyone put an EPS estimate on the impact of iPay? In the spring of '12, an analyst (Evergreen?) opined that the only major thrust upward in operating margin out there for Apple was Apple Pay. In effect ... there are not any known product plays which will grow the elephant substantially larger ... but the opinion was that Pay, on the other hand, could be a game-changer. Thanks if you have a lead on the question. All the best.

  • Reply to

    What happened to all the regulars?

    by smitty4901 Jan 13, 2015 1:01 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 16, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    Well, I am long-of-tooth and a tad too careful on where I put my money. The amateur manner that Orbach presented guidance last spring drove me out (well...if I had to guess) ... at first lock and stock, and then barrel. I opined that SILC is a job-shop with skilled programmers who respond to customer needs. BUT, they do not seem to have strategics in marketing (not sure what their customers plan to buy) nor finance (not sure exactly why they chose to add substantial inventory early last year, nor add to the shelf ... Orback alluded to potential acquisition stockpile). I keep it on my watch list and it has gone pretty much sideways. Well-wishing all longs here that Orbach comes out with a big budget flush of huge revenue for you in the next report -- not out of the amateurish arena of his capability. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 16, 2015 9:12 AM Flag

    The tech advantage identified in the article is the very circumstance that was predicted back in the $20 to $24 range by many on this board, including the uber-poster, WW. We do not yet know the full extent of the harvest from Intel's investment into the Moore's Law roadmap for the next few years, but it is hoped by this long that the digital revolution will keep the technology waters rising in growth ... right on through this dark phase of global economic stagnation. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jan 9, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Thanks for sharing Jim. Absent Apple for '14 and the first half of '15, the business was absent and the turn was not until later this year ... and we saw only one 2014 "win" in Malaysia, which required financing to move it to a purchase order. It was a Saudi project team and I doubt that current oil prices make that decision compelling. We saw nothing in '14 on Merlin and HiCz. Say hey ... I enjoyed following your namesake on the Bosox and the Tribe.

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