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Clearfield, Inc. Message Board

dachmeister4u 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 18, 2014 7:00 PM Member since: Dec 15, 2004
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  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Dec 18, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    In a globe that is challenged to find near-term growth, revenues for governments and jobs for citizens in many countries will be a struggle. Solar efficiency gains are not quite at parity just yet -- it is coming -- so grants and subsidies are still in play by governments. In the meantime, consolidation among too many solar panel makers is still not happening -- thus creating dump-off margin erosion. The one bright spot is the US, but tariffs do play against CSIQ. In Canada, CSIQ is soon going to file a response to the dumping complaint up there. Finally, we have an analyst that says the CSIQ backlog for the start of 2015 will be dominated in panel supply, at low margin -- in effect, he doesn't believe the $4+ in EPS for '15.

  • Reply to

    Just idle speculating here ...

    by dachmeister4u Nov 12, 2014 8:59 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Nov 13, 2014 8:46 AM Flag

    I accept that enhanced manufacturing capacity accelerates book-and-bill timing. IMO, the Net Neutrality debate has stalled the 1Gb plans of major providers. In the meantime, we have a run rate of $55 mil and 40 cents.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Nov 12, 2014 8:59 AM Flag

    As a micro-cap stock that acts like a micro-cap, CLFD can be volatile as the news remains scarce between quarter releases. Tiny firms with HUGE customers never want to get caught with poor service and worse, out-of-stock inventory positions. The one piece of news that gets my juices flowing -- the PR on a secondary manufacturing site. The firm had just put (within the last six months) its MN manufacturing expansion in place and now we read they signed up more capacity. Apart from last q's report of 18% growth in other "greenfield" providers and knowing that Google is working toward 30+ additional zones, we have no known rationale for pulling the trigger, that fast, on a second expansion. I'll be looking for that rationale in tomorrow's release. All the best.

  • Reply to

    any one thinking of buying p/m i'd hold off

    by guberpedro Nov 12, 2014 8:15 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Nov 12, 2014 8:27 AM Flag

    Not really concerned with the micro-timing. Three factors set up the macro-long: 1. The solar cycle is just getting underway. 2. CSIQ is generating significant operating margin leverage. 3. What will be the PE and PEG assigned to CSIQ by the market over the next 12 months? At this point, with earnings running $4+ a share, the stock is deeply undervalued and any re-visits to sub-$30 will invite me, once again, to add share count.

  • Because the Sept '13 quarter was a historical high ... a result of big backlog build to $10mil in the spring of '13 ... the y-o-y growth will, no doubt, decline against that comparison hurdle. More important, though, will be continued backlog growth for the quarter ... with the potential that big customers are ramping up installations -- the rationale for the plant expansion. That spring '13 jump in backlog (from $3mm to $10mm) was the impetus to $20+ in pps.

    A decent backlog of $4 to $5mm will, imo, support the current price range. When (not if, assuming competition is not yet at their heels) the big players show up, the $20+ will be the new range --healthy margins, zero debt and large customer mix in 1G build-out are too compelling. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 8, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    My last post on the GT board: think back over the last year and the many patents filed by Apple that essentially "captured" GT's technology under their own name. At the time, wondering when the heck did Apple become a crystal manufacturing expert, I concluded "what a great partner with massive, deep pockets who could afford global patent defense on 'lil ole GT's behalf." Absent the plan and discussion from GT on restructuring, that partnership may have impaired GT's future, beyond consumer electronics. Some patents were about ion deposition, about enhancing dielectric properties, about bonding layered crystals. IMO, that IP was worth many billions in future markets in solar, in semi-conductors, and many other massive applications.

    No longer with any skin in the game, I will listen to what TG says about the future ... a kind of post-mortem autopsy of lessons to be learned.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 7, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    aacht, beans ... Rick (who left Sonus with a bag of exercised options) may have seen the "Wing and a Prayer" but he likely jumped for a career change. He is now a research analyst and he is out of corporate accounting/finance. He was one, smart cookie in my book -- a quick learn with polish.

    GT bit off more than they could chew. TG got a "pass" in last November's horrible results as the Apple deal came to the rescue against dismal prospects for all of 2014. From last spring's discussion of the brittleness of sapphire (stronger -- yes, scratch-resistant -- yes, but still prone to shatter at certain force/angles), I often thought that the phone was a low-margin sideshow. Hyperion bonding of sapphire to a substrate may be the ticket, but I think Apple has the patents. Flip-side, we did not see any hyperion, silicone, DSS or merlin orders for 3Q. Thus, Mesa may have missed the covenants on quality and/or quantity and there was no back-up equipment orders. Apple pulled the plug. I lost 12% of my portfolio, but even S&P still had a 4-star rating on GT --- who knew, beyond the big money shorts? All the best. I'll be looking for you out there on new prospects.

  • Reply to

    Experienced, financial analysts invited

    by dachmeister4u Sep 23, 2014 9:55 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 6, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Well, this is terrible news. It makes TG the worst kind of CEO, a visionary optimist who bites off more than he can chew and, along the way, cashes in on options. Ultimately, shareholders are, indeed, empty bagholders. It is one more of investing lessons about broken trust. So much for his statement about "protecting" his credibility. All the best.

  • Reply to

    THE QUESTION NO ONE HAS ASKED

    by cantdance123 Oct 1, 2014 4:57 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 3, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    As an aside ... the news said that epi-genetics was a key in future oncology treatments. In effect, cancer cells are a "broken" cell and software-designed creation of weak viruses will kill the broken cells and leave the healthy cells alone. Novel, low-cost ($1,000 a patient) approach.

  • Reply to

    Deuche Bagk Says No Catalyst?

    by advanceiscoming Oct 3, 2014 8:45 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 3, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    No one yet has a handle on "the card business." A long-forgotten named analyst offered last winter that the one thing that will move the needle in significant operating margin growth for Apple is -- transaction fees. He expressed back then, limited growth numbers for Apple's other products (limit as high, single-digits) but that sheer volume of transactions could bring huge margins. It is noted that Ebay gains over a billion bucks in op margin on three billion in paypal revenues. Three media articles on the PayPal spin-off all cited Apple's deals with a broad swath of players as the opening catalyst to the PayPal decision (Icahn push also cited). Forest lost among the trees, imo.

  • Reply to

    THE QUESTION NO ONE HAS ASKED

    by cantdance123 Oct 1, 2014 4:57 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 3, 2014 9:07 AM Flag

    Two cents: saw a piece of news yesterday that startled me -- 27 drugs were approved by the FDA last year and the numbers of new drugs per year have been on a steep decline for decades. The cost per approval, from discovery through approval, is beyond prohibitive. It is a simple rationale for this long but the news underpins a fundamental approach -- own a small piece of an undervalued growth company with a pipeline that serves large numbers of global-afflicted with effective treatments. I will "test" the rationale when GILD hits the S&P fair value (good grief ... a $73 gap!).

  • Reply to

    never knew TG is this kind of guy

    by legendtrade Oct 2, 2014 9:52 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 2, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Like everyone, I don't know anymore than anyone else. I own shares for the prospect of '15 / '16 growth with '14 as a transition year, and 4Q as the starting gun, the beginning of the ramp onto revenue levels of solar quarters ... and beyond. I doubt that TG is coming out with a set of excuses as to why his six-week-old guidance has drastically dropped. 4Q is about equipment sales coming out of backlog.

  • Reply to

    never knew TG is this kind of guy

    by legendtrade Oct 2, 2014 9:52 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Oct 2, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    What a wild ride here, Hap ... but not historically unusual for capital-equip-focused, GT. Looking at the thirteen analyst guesstimates for 2015, we have a range from a loss of nineteen cents to earnings of a dollar-twenty. Based upon those extreme guesses, GT is either hugely overbought or it is hugely oversold. Gaynor (left in Feb) who, with Tom and sales folks, would sit down and hammer out the forecasts, customer by customer, and attach probabilities to each item. In response to an analyst question, TG interjects a statement in that August cc about protecting his "conservative" reputation in forecasting. The pps drop at hand now says that the street would prefer timely forecasts over accurate information. Its a shame ... many who got in with i-phone stars in their eyes have lost precious funds and left, never knowing the company. All the best.

  • Reply to

    Sold ALL my stock today....

    by demerson09 Sep 29, 2014 11:19 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 30, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    Thanks again ... makes good sense as a viable hedge, with a guaranteed return.

  • Reply to

    Sold ALL my stock today....

    by demerson09 Sep 29, 2014 11:19 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 30, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Bought more this morning ... but then, I am not a trader. The only way I can win in my amateur, small-retail skill set/life style is to discover firms, ahead of the market, that are innovating, know them as best I can, test them from conference to conference, and look ahead and test the pathway to the result. Is there doubt as to whether the pps will ever new highs again? Is their technology a set of solutions for global issues? Do they have an "edge" in cumulative expertise in their field? Do they have a solid product footprint of historical quality/performance in the landscape? Have they developed partnerships with global players? Does their past record indicate that they have delivered on their vision?

    Each to his own risk/reward strategy. As an aside, dem ... can you explain again the relationship of shorting against the backdrop of convertible notes? All the best and thanks.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 29, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    If the 4Q ramp remains in guidance AND 2015 guidance is strong, the firm quickly moves away from "transition" of under-water losses and into healthy, profitable long-term growth. The tech that GT is building upon will earn it a premium PE ratio. Given the conditional "if," when the price moves up is unknown ... could be later this week, wording in the 3Q CC, or releases of a few, massive equipment orders. A few years back, they took in $1.1B in the space of three weeks (Feb of '10?). Media expectation is all about Apple. Remember, TG went with direct-supply sapphire to smooth out the gap between orders for the capital equipment. Beyond Apple, Hyperion, and Merlin, folks are forgetting that they have a sizable prospects -- solar Malaysia, ASF furnace backlog, and OCC, phase 4 (Korea, solar). Caveat -- TG has a serious test of execution in managing multiple and diverse product lines into global markets. Hopefully he has the right staff on hand.

  • Reply to

    gtat needs to announce just when this webcast is....

    by pgpgo Sep 26, 2014 8:28 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 26, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    aah ... the long's lament. Despite a consistent, superb track record of positive surprises when business is ramping, Tom has called a couple of conferences when the picture gets murky -- the dry-up of DSS orders and the closing of the HiCz pilot plant. I see this conference as a sharing of business strategy with stakeholders.

    Best guess #1 on the conference from a post of last week was a need for additional capital to fund R&D. They have a couple of hundred million in cash but the Apple-accounting complexity is tricky for me. The license agreement with EVI of Europe is to create a manufacturing process and a market for nano deposition onto substrates. HiCz gets to 22 to 24% solar efficiencies where deposition moves the needle beyond "parity." No one has yet bought the St. Louis facility. I didn't see any Merlin, HiCz or Hyperion orders in this quarter.

    I see Tom pushing out core revenues a bit and being a bit less optimistic on timing. He has no control of capital equipment orders and he may be sapphire-dependent a little longer than expected. It remains to be healthy to have Apple as a partner. Interesting thought -- in a nine-month sea of media rumor on the phone, he knew all along where the Apple-sapphire was going. Methinks that Apple and GT remain focused on the other beneficial properties of sapphire in a layered screen. Now for this prospect alone, transferable to other applications, imo, a long position is justified. It is a true game changer to many electronic devices.

    Chinese manufacturing, to my mind, has not yet consolidated and they may be squeezing out the last penny of cost before investing in new equipment, particularly if "the next level" in efficiency is only a year or two away. But I think the engineer in Tom will be solid on product developments and the size and quality of the cyclical turn in solar. We shall hear, soon. All the best.

  • Reply to

    Something's coming

    by telcotrader01 Sep 26, 2014 8:49 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 26, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Tough to say one way or another ... as a perennial high beta stock, Sonus has long been good for traders. If'n you "back up the truck" when it is obviously low and dump at the near highs (now the range puts it over $4), then you are rewarded. The lack of news makes it a pretty dull holding. Noteworthy is that big money largely decided to place their bets elsewhere -- Empire exiting with a significant gain (bulk of cost average at $1.80s and Legatum with a huge loss (bulk at mid $6s). Apparently they also see a grind ahead as opposed to exciting prospects. Of course, would like to see a big tech grab them up and absorb them into their products, ala Acme. The price now would be attractive. Dolan would be ecstatic. We'll see. All the best.

  • Reply to

    Experienced, financial analysts invited

    by dachmeister4u Sep 23, 2014 9:55 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Sep 23, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    aacht ... well Beans, yes, this is known but I was hoping that this board had someone with keen financial acumen who could dig in and uncover a cogent, concise analysis and projection. This year's financials reveal a complex financial underpinning. IMO, while you cannot fight the Fed, there is a nervousness about the market reaction to the anticipated move and, as my brother would say, "when the paddy wagon shows up to haul the street-walkers off the avenue, all of them -- those gifted in countenance and not -- all of them are taken away." I care not to be heavily "in" (as opposed to moderately) should TG announce a dilution -- which would not be a surprise, given the extent of R&D needed to get all the legs firmly in place -- in a too-close tandem to a Fed wild card, word-slip becoming evident. I can only follow the 2-year Treasury but, with GT financials, maybe there is a story to discern.

  • Challenge: will the upcoming meeting be a centered on a need for increased capital?

    My own amateur analysis of historical cash flow and balance sheet statements confirm that 2014 is a massive bet on the future. It is easy to view that capital expenditures are ramped up, as well "other investing" uses of cash. Cash on hand seems stable to dropping BUT logical, considering Mesa ouput likely climbs higher with each quarter going forward.

    There are "unusual" accounting entries to take into account -- the Apple deposits, the switch from sapphire equipment from inventory for sale into their own manufacturing process.

    In general, I think not ... rather, the meeting will be about shifts in orders and enhanced "prospects," but I invite your insight. Thanks and all the best.

CLFD
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