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Nuance Communications, Inc. Message Board

dachmeister4u 97 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Dec 15, 2004
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  • Reply to


    by abobbyg23 23 hours ago
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 6 hours ago Flag

    Correction: 100 million photos selfies a day. Sorry.

  • Reply to


    by abobbyg23 23 hours ago
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 6 hours ago Flag

    Short question ... long answer: know your investment. At the last cc, mgmt forecast $160mm +/-4mm in rev and 28 to 30 cents per share. They are building a history of beating so you might expect a slight beat, excluding an impact from announced stock buyback program. Two upside conderations since the May4th conference call: 1. the flow of orders for wireless charging, pushed out a bit in the last quarter, should return to normal trendline and 2. memory interface (mix of DDR3 and R4) could accelerate. As support to #2, in the 33rd minute, Becky from Wedbush asked why they guided 6% growth yet turned in 28% growth.

    More important within "know your investment" -- go to their website, investors, presentations, log in and listen to the investor's conference from May. If you are to beat the street or the indexes, your only advantage (and enhancing your sleep at night) is your time and energy in developing a keen focus and managing your expectations. Here is a tickler: the CEO lays out the rationale as to why IDT will grow 2x the pace of semiconductor industry over the next three years. So what, you say? Within the globe of 7.4B, about 80% of households have a mobile phone but only 1/3rd has a smart phone. 90% of memory storage is tied to social media (10B selfies a day) and IDT's considers that they have leadership in their memory interface because their products are programmable to fit multiple devices and standards ... well, you get the picture. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u 8 hours ago Flag

    I cannot remember where or how recently that I saw that recap, with graphs. Basically the research was using hard data from each of the big 4 biotechs financial reports to explain that Gilead was the leader by far in all metrics except Phase2 and Phase3 trials, but even here, Gilead was # 3 and in the favored, upper right quadrant. Could you please identify the source material so that YMB longs are reinforced, with conviction? I think it was a Zack's piece but could not find it. Thanks.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 30, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    I assume the following finish to the last sentence (above): " on an annualized basis."
    Essentially, the firm is returning to $75mil rev per quarter ... but taking out $5mil in cost per quarter (against 2014 annual number, since they are using 2014 as the $20mil takeaway reference) would put them in positive profit zone of $3mil or 6 cents a share per quarter. Not exactly gangbusters but it is a start.

  • Reply to

    Talk about no respect....

    by jth234 Jul 29, 2015 10:09 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 30, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Perhaps we are missing a key factor -- influence of biotech etf sell-off. If the IBB is declining, typically the components face a headwind. This is an unknowable unknown. Here is some startling data:
    In the past 12 months investors traded $18.2 trillion worth of ETF shares, according to data from the New York Stock Exchange and Bloomberg. That's a 17 percent increase from the 12 months prior and more than triple what it was 10 years ago. For perspective, that means the amount of dollars exchanging hands through ETFs is now more than the U.S. gross domestic product, which stands at $17.4 trillion. (Sadly, both those numbers are less than the U.S.’s $18.5 trillion in debt.)

    But perhaps even more astonishing than the raw amount of trading is that U.S. ETFs only have $2.1 trillion in assets. In other words, the turnover in ETFs is about 870 percent a year. This is more than four times the turnover for U.S. stocks, which comes in at about 200 percent.

  • Reply to

    Mark ... your take on the CC?

    by dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 11:12 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 30, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    Thanks, Mark. I look forward to your Day when Cisco and Juniper begin a bidding war over Sonus.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    I need to keep my breakfast down and my reflex in response to executive exuberance might cause a problem. Thanks.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    If the CEO is baffled as to why the short level is this high, I am too. The company continues along, gradually growing profitably. I can only think that speculators, interest piqued by certain datapoints (high growth rate from another major bank refresh, consistently high "beats") ... and ancillary but misplaced hype about cyber security firms ... bought into the stock without knowing that Vasco is a solid Buick, not a Ferrrari. Now it is the arena of traders and shorters and it will remain there until the next "surprise" leg up in growth trajectory with a major bank refresh. The CEO doesn't care to get involved in watching the daily wall of worry ... he is too busy capturing his vision of steady and durable profit growth. All the best.

  • dachmeister4u by dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Made a perusal of their 2014 annual report. The top management team comes from some heavy hitters in electronics. The CEO was a general manager with Skyworks. The CTO was CEO of Conexant. Freescale and Lucent managers are also on board. As an aside, 4G rollout and DDR4 were the defined growth engines for the 2014 edition as they claim to be first suppliers to these technologies ... seems we should have a solid 2H as these are both in play, rather than off in the future.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 1:39 AM Flag

    As of last evening's AH close and results, the annualized PE is down to 16.7 and their non-GAAP sequential PEG ratio is 16.7 / 25, or .64. By that measure (under 1.0), the market seriously undervalues the growth fundamentals of VDSI.

    You cannot compare VDSI, a security firm focused upon protecting bank accounts, to your mentioned deep cyber analytic security firms, protecting their clients by looking into their computer networks for global hackers and imbedded malware. Having said that, he talked about their recent investment into a "client manager" security software that is analyzing information as it is coming across the net, testing the information against a customer profile. The CEO said there is solid interest.

    I have a Vasco "token" supplied by Schwab. When I log in with my password I activate a digital send-out of a 30-second-only password provided to the token by Schwab, to be added to the end of my password. This digipass provides a simple but effective layer of security. I asked TD Ameritrade for one several months ago but have heard nothing back.

    Relax ... the firm is building nicely profitable revenue in layers as new banks come into the fold and roll out their Vasco products, starting with the largest accounts first. While he said that Vasco is 75% international, the US is just now getting underway with secure account protection.

  • Reply to

    Refresh timeline

    by topjimmy23 Jul 28, 2015 9:52 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 29, 2015 1:06 AM Flag

    Know what you own, Jim. Suggest you listen to a conference call. The hundreds of banks (and thousands of branches) do not "refresh" at the same time ... each is on their own unique cycle. He gave the example of HSBC. For the new French bank with 3000 branches ... they are just getting started.

  • Reply to


    by buckibrown2 Jul 28, 2015 5:05 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    This was my first listen. It is a true, small cap firm with hands-on, practical management. This ain't John Chambers of Cisco, dazzling the analysts with facts and figures on global strategies. Theirs is not a go-go revenue model in high demand by consumers. We don't call up TD Ameritrade and demand our "token" digipass because Schwab offers one or because we fear a future hack -- we have to wait for TD management to react to a hack. No indeed, VDSI has to wait for the banks to come around to their products. BUT, he is continually building a base of hundreds of banks and they refresh their security products every four to six years, and each refresh takes several quarters, stating with the largest bank accounts . He said that over twenty years, the firm is a conglomeration of 14 purchased firms that developed solid products on the their own dime. The bulk of his business is commercial banking with large account balances. He did say that consumer mobile banking software is coming and they are ready, but he had no clue when or how much impact -- the banks control that decision.

    When asked, he said he also did not understand the heavy short against the firm. He said that all he can do is deliver performance. (By any financial measure, he has a company with solid fundamentals).

    There is a reason that they beat handily every quarter -- he guesses conservative and he knows they are building the base. (he said his revenue projection is conservative in the 23rd minute). He said when banks need security refresh, his firm always ends up with the business. An analysts asked whether the French bank and Caesars are new customer and when will they hit the order bucket. Yes, they are new and he has no idea when. Roll-out may take four to six months. GLTA -- know what you own.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 4:28 PM Flag

    Read the headline, you are a tad early -- Financial results for the period ended June 30, 2015 and guidance for full-year 2015 to be discussed on conference call today at 4:30 p.m. E.T.

  • Reply to

    Guestimate of $.33 ...

    by carolinaphan Jul 28, 2015 3:40 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 4:18 PM Flag

    Rev and earnings beat: $65.4 @ $0.35 vs. $64.7 and $0.28.

  • Reply to

    Crushing again

    by bio_guyo Jul 28, 2015 4:09 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    The year-end guidance is $29 to $30B, in line with estimates and leaves the second half flat ... BUT I doubt that they have Japan in the equation. They sure do upside surprise very well.

  • Reply to

    Remember 2 big clients added in Q2

    by catchamackerel Jul 28, 2015 3:46 PM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 4:02 PM Flag

    I got a good laugh ... I flipped over my Schwab security device and it has VASCO imbedded in the case. I have appreciated its feature immensely since it was shipped to me.

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    From the last quarter's release: VASCO is increasing its guidance for revenue and operating income as a percentage of revenue for the full-year 2015 as follows:

    Revenue is expected to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million, compared to $220 million to $230 million communicated previously, and
    Operating income as a percentage of revenue, excluding the amortization of purchased intangible assets, is projected to be in the range of 19% to 22%, compared to 17% to 20% communicated previously.

    Forthright ... eh?

  • dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Repeating my question again, Craig -- why the huge short position on VDSI. No one on that YMB has answered the question, either. Thanks.

  • Concentrated customer base, dollar strength given their 75% as foreign sales, Iranian misstep, competitive pressure? At 51% of float as short (as of two weeks ago), there has to be a fundamental flaw that I am not smart enough to decipher. The reasons cited above, imo, do not satisfy an explanation for me -- there has to be a bigger rationale. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    U.S Companies with largest exposure to China..

    by mcwhirt33 Jul 28, 2015 8:35 AM
    dachmeister4u dachmeister4u Jul 28, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    One useless thought ... if the Chinese upper-middle and middle class acts like their American bretheren, they would rather give up buying shoes than get rid of their smartphones. IMO, a subject for research is whether the observed "where is the consumer spending rise?" in the US is tied to phone expense. Shoot, I've observed grade school kids with their own smart phones. Social phone connecting is life critical for many -- try taking it away.

18.1799+0.0699(+0.39%)1:28 PMEDT