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Just Energy Group Inc. Message Board

dadaswalapala 170 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2014 1:56 PM Member since: Apr 1, 2014
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  • Reply to

    Dividend not received ...

    by dadaswalapala Jun 30, 2014 12:24 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 30, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    i usually get the divvie by now ... late in the day. as of now, nothing.

  • dadaswalapala by dadaswalapala Jun 30, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    has anyone received their divvie?

  • Reply to

    Where will ARCP be at start of 2015???

    by gardnergallery Jun 23, 2014 4:37 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 23, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    ARCP is a great long term investment, but currently it does not out perform its peers. If we experience 3-4 quarters of positive accounting profit then ARCP shall be valued at the level of its peers. So Q1 of 2015 i don't see much movement other than laterally. Or put otherwise, if ARCP crosses the 14 $ pps level its an EASY sell for me, because to be honest it doesn't deserve that level of valuation at present. If it moves laterally in the mid 13s it shall be following its manifest destiny. For me, its a no brainer: hold on for the long-term outlook which is 20 $ pps by the end of the decade, collecting a high yield in the meantime. The first step has been taken, which is to slow down the acquisition spree and move toward a more conservative growth model on par with its peers. If we return to the mid 13s by YE, we're solid. If we cross 14 $ no brainer, sell. Its not sustainable in this environment of high volatility.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Schorsch is leaving as CEO

    by labrak2 Jun 20, 2014 1:38 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 20, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    There is a lot to be said about this move, but I remain optimistic about the long term prospects of ARCP. My humble opinion is that we have now gone from one extreme to the other; passion fruit to vanilla, Jobs to Cook. The new CEO is basically an autopilot in a 10k $ suit.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    reason for the rise

    by mrvvv000 Jun 20, 2014 10:18 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 20, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    a solid rebuttal to the recent loss of shareholder confidence in the company. while i do not expect a rapid rebound to the mid 13s, i am hopeful that we can sustain the mid 12s in the coming weeks. Anything to get us away from the point we are at right now, which is trading near book value.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    reason for the rise

    by mrvvv000 Jun 20, 2014 10:18 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 20, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    It says that the business model is sound, and David Kay is in charge.

  • Reply to

    Buy more ARCP?

    by mr_brightside_xy Jun 17, 2014 10:22 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 17, 2014 10:37 AM Flag

    Biggest pros:

    1. Solid business model with a sustainable monthly dividend; pps value accretion.
    2. Excellent flexibility regarding deal making, opportunistic buying; outperformance of peers
    3. Better client diversification than peers, even post Red Lobster; long term pps stability
    4. Just sold off its weakest asset CLASS, i.e. the shopping centers; lower downside risk
    5. Access to low cost of capital perfectly timed by management; secure cap rates = secure dividend

    Biggest cons:

    1. Erratic guidance; undermining of market confidence, unsustainable pps floors
    2. Unproven GAAP profitability; reduced probability of entering S&P500
    3. Inadequate financial reporting infrastructure; low market confidence.

    For me it's all about the dividend, and where I see the pps being in 5 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You know if Red Lobster folds...

    by swmagazine Jun 12, 2014 11:47 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 13, 2014 11:21 AM Flag

    good one :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    You know if Red Lobster folds...

    by swmagazine Jun 12, 2014 11:47 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 13, 2014 10:52 AM Flag

    i'll say it again: the success or failure of RL is irrelevant. ARCP owns the land, the brick and the mortar... the whole kick and kabootle. Turn it into a CVS, a Citibank or a Starbucks. Who cares? Its 500 properties in prime locations all over the USA. The deal was well put together. The only real negative here was the issuing of 15% more shares at 12 $ price level. That I didn't like.

  • dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 12, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    When N&B wanted to get HCT bought out they made it so ... similar events in the universe of discourse, leads me to have the opinion that ARCP is in the market for a buyer. Why BRK? Because they have the cash flow. Two years ago they paid 22bln for ketchup maker Heinz. Deep pockets, for what amounts to buying out a strong value driven component of the real economy at a very fair valuation. If ARCP isn't an example of a Buffet choice, then I guess I must be missing something.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Possible reasons:

    1. - Independent of the fundamentals, a consequence of large short exposure
    2. - Tied to the fundamentals, investors are worried about a dividend rate cut
    3. - Tied to sector & industry fundamentals in reference to rising interest rates
    4. - ARCP specific in that all the recent movement has rattled the investor base
    5. - Nick is diluting sh. value to make ARCP attractive to a hedge fund re: buyout
    6. - Vanguard hit the "sell" button 6 weeks ago and it hasn't been announced yet

    or...

    7. All of the above at the same time without a positive counter-weight.

    I see #5 as the best choice, and see a YE 2014 bid in the works from BRK.

    Although it could just be #7 mix and match to varying degrees.

    Let me know your thoughts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    234M charge on 1st Q

    by alschroed Jun 12, 2014 9:21 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 12, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Acquisition costs

  • Reply to

    BUCKLE UP FOR TAKEOFF

    by jraisus Jun 12, 2014 8:26 AM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 12, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    Please to explain.

  • Lead counsel bought 7500 shares at the bottom. Form 4 disclosed.

  • Reply to

    Tangible book value is only $3.82

    by brett626 Jun 11, 2014 2:23 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    there is a lot of short term downward pressure on ARCP because of management and their methods. IMO this is a powerhouse company with solid business model but inadequate financial control infrastructure and completely inadequate investor relations. That we are trading at or near book value is a text book oversold situation based on market manipulations which have little to do with the underlying business fundamentals. the only question is "why" for me. the easiest answer is "to setup a hedge fund to purchase ARCP at a favorable strike price". If the stock is trading at 15 and you bid 16 to but the company outright, there is a lot of sideways movement. If the stock is trading at 12 and you bid 16 the big players throw you a parade. I suspect that we are going to hear about a buyout of ARCP in the next 12-24 months time frame and when we look back all these market manipulation to bring the stock price down will make complete sense.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tangible book value is only $3.82

    by brett626 Jun 11, 2014 2:23 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 4:41 PM Flag

    We are at or near book value. this is real estate so its all tangible. don't know where you got your numbers from but IMO your off by a lot. Try 11.50 book value pps.

  • Reply to

    Tangible book value is only $3.82

    by brett626 Jun 11, 2014 2:23 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    how u figure that out?

  • dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    @ 35 $ pps you are valuing it as a tech stock. fair value in 12 months is 28 $ pps

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Upgrade soon

    by boughtatprice Jun 11, 2014 12:38 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    what is a 23 $ print?

  • Reply to

    Bleeding

    by kainayar Jun 11, 2014 1:25 PM
    dadaswalapala dadaswalapala Jun 11, 2014 1:39 PM Flag

    If u r confused its because you don't understand that the stock market is a nonlinear system. 1+1 does not make 2 in all cases, but it does in some. And the times it doesn't, well that's what hedging and diversification are for my friend. In the long run this stock shall outperform O, but to get to that level of valuation we need 10 quarters of positive accounting profit, which means Nick has to slow down his shopping spree dramatically and focus on solid financial reporting and responsive investor relations. That's the only way to mitigate the consistent adjustments being made in the AFFO calculations, and why the accounting eps is consistently negative. Too many acquisitions, too quickly. If they employ the strategy I just iterated YE 2016 this stock shall be solidly above 16 $ pps on 1.14 $ to 1.25 $ eps.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

JE
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