BlackS uses the equity volatility like BETA as a risk proxy.
In the money calls with an intrinsic worth reflect the owner or holder taking on additional risk. So of course all other things equal as a 'cost' the risk premium would seem lower. But it is not. There are some very nice BlackS model individuals can use.
As Buffett correctly stated. Clowns like Hedgeye wunderkind are taught BlackS always works. Truth is, it is much more logical in the shorter than the long.
In 2014, ERS forecasts that food price inflation will return to a range closer to the historical norm; since 1990, grocery store prices have risen by an average of 2.8 percent per year. The food-at-home CPI has already increased more in the first 6 months of 2014 than it did in all of 2013; however, given its current trajectory, it is on track for normal annual inflation. Inflationary pressures are expected to be moderate, given the outlook for commodity prices, animal inventories, and ongoing export trends. Retailer margins, having contracted since the 2012 drought, may expand in 2014 if input prices rise, which should contribute to inflation. As a result, the food, food-at-home, and food-away-from-home CPIs are expected to increase 2.5 to 3.5 percent over 2013 levels.
Obama alone in the modern era has by policy designed engineered a sustain contraction in real family income. The correlation to the insane Renewable Fuel Standard Mandates is easy to see. Just go over to Index Mundi and select commodity Food Price inflation.
Indeed, as new technologies increase yields, the relative minor oil input is more than offset. At 75% of the area under the sustained climb is government policy. UNjust and irrational government policy for the humanity hating earth goddess of the Progressive pagans.
Market forces due to the rapid expansion of world capacity will remove the politically assigned excess profits. I certainly would not by buying American farm land. How quickly it reverts to rationality is subject to the weather.
Hey I have this great idea. Government encouraging use of the cleanest American fuel of natural gas, ngls and light oils and following the law and ending insane and now evil food to fuel mandates.
It is an economic stimulus program many orders of magnitude greater than the crony capitalist feeding freeze of Obama/Progressive. Better still it goes directly into the pockets of rational American consumers rather than the cold blooded calculations.
Poor Willie -
The Kurds are orthodox Sunni. Of course it seems complex to you as you missed the most basic element.
Progressive collectivist are like that.
Qatar has not worked with Iran in Syria. ;) Quite the delusion.
Possible over lapping support for client groups with in a conflict does not define 'working' together. Which demonstrates your child like contemplation.
In general Religion of all sorts is used as an excuse for secular ambition or simply personal delusional grandeur.
ISIL certainly is not under the control of any state now. Bagdaddy is requiring people to swear personal loyalty to him. It seems impossible for the self limiting material nihilist such as yourself to understand these oaths carry real world ramification. The German Army swearing allegiance to Hitler personally was significant in the military not overthrowing him in the early stages. The later stages as well.
Now for you clear silliness. The Kurds are main stream of main stream Sunnis. This version of Shari is old and respected.
The Kurds are a people without a state which dream of having their own state. They do not have their own state due to the secular geopolitical equations of other peoples. Turkey, Iraq and Iran do not wish to cede and territory to their aspirations and dreams of self determination.
Even the attack by ISIL is not about religion. It is about taking out the one peoples other than the state of Israel who are America's developing philosophical and therefore natural allies.
Extremely superficial William. But this is who you chose to be.
The idea in Iraq was that a polyglot society could sustain a democracy due to the very high levels of technical education. The reason the West and Sunni ME deluded themselves is some counter weight to the vast population of Iran is necessary.
The chaos in Iraq is more the blow back of ham handed Shia Imams than anything else. But the vacuum they filled was purposefully left by Obama. For his internal political power.
As our American Framers wrote, the only secure foundation for Liberty is sound religion and the attending morality. Virtue.
Two events have renewed interest among scholars in the relationship between food prices and political instability. The first was the 2007–08 food crisis, which triggered food riots in countries from Haiti to Bangladesh to Mozambique.
The second was the Arab Spring, the first signs of which were riots in response to high food prices in Algeria and Tunisia. The revolutions that swept the Middle East that year were, of course, primarily the result of a population frustrated by decades of dictatorship and corruption, but according to Hendrix, Egypt’s revolution, in particular, is impossible to fully understand without taking into account the role of food.
Autocratic governments have a habit of keeping food and fuel prices artificially low through subsidies and price controls. As Hendrix puts it, “Rational leaders have an incentive to cater to the preferences of urbanites. They are closer to the center of power, they face lower costs for collective action, they live in dense environments in which protests are particularly threatening to a leader. So what do these urbanites want? They want cheap food.”
If you’re the dictator of a small, rich country, you can theoretically feed your population indefinitely. In 2011, for instance, while revolutions were sweeping the region, oil-rich Kuwait announced that it would commemorate the anniversary of the country’s liberation from Iraq by giving every citizen a grant of 1,000 dinars ($3,545) and free food for 13 months. The message to citizens was pretty clear.
Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world and is not blessed with a significant amount of arable land or oil reserves; its rulers don’t have options like Kuwait’s. Egypt has a history of food-based instability. In 1977, under pressure from the World Bank, Anwar Sadat severely curtailed food subsidies. In the resulting “bread intifada,” strikes and rioting lasted for two days and around 800 people were killed.
The Cause Of Riots And The Price of Food
If we don’t reverse the current trend in food prices, we’ve got until August 2013 before social unrest sweeps the planet, say complexity theorists
This clearly seems to show that when the food price index rises above a certain threshold, the result is trouble around the world.
This isn’t rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It’s often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.
In other words, high food prices lead to a kind of tipping point when almost anything can trigger a riot, like a lighted match in a dry forest.
MIT was correct 2011
Unfortunately you are not just a clown with no self respect.
I agree. With the distribution coverage makes all other opportunities or challenges rationally executable by management.
We all know roughly what the PV10 economic book value estimate is. We also know what the world market price is for natural gas and ngls. Not included in the PV10 calculation.
BRY did not need to extensively hedged gas as it was used to power the EOR.
They used collars on expected oil production. Which can be seen in the presentations.
California crude bounces around between TI and Brent.
Exxon is simply to large to be doing hedges.
The issue with the hedge book was the backwardization of the oil market. It is still backward but not as dramatically. Whether or not any money is 'committed; to a swap is dependant on the strip or pure future price.
IN reality puts as a financial option are a commitment of capital. The swaps are not.
Foolish corny stag monster Opie,
UNrepentant caliban rrb never did understand. To busy trying to prove in an imaginary singular reality it has special powers.
The high activity and highly variable ex-ante shales are not well suited to the public partnership structure.
Especially when Progressive Hedgie eye can call in political favors from a corrupt administration to aid their short operations.
Sand on the beach favorites would be best if you want to get in on the shale rush.
Front running is illegal. BUffett fired an employee for it.
Again, the SEC investigation of LINE was clearly rigged. It could only take a few days to investigate the hedge book. A few days would not have broken up the original BRY deal.
Ron^3 getting off in the weeds is not going to rationalize what the Obama SEC did.
Protect individual investors? Nope they clearly sided with the shorts. Just by the length of time they took. They understood the critical ramifications of the deal for LINE owners.
Again that concept of the Spirit of the Law. Which is the critical concept between the rule of law and oppression by the rule of men.
Crony Stag monster foreign corn growing capacity has not expanded 2,000% in a few years because farmers outside America can not make a huge profit at $4 a bushel.
Seems you must be a horrible farmer just like your poltroon investment palaver.
How ignorant can you be? What would be the price of American natural gas today if Obama had not abuse his power to slow down natural gas exports? How about if Obama had followed the RFS law and eliminated the now criminal mandate?
Yes it has been easy to make money in the equity markets. I am grateful for my results.
Yep that is what Denisovans do when frustrated. rrn Caliban. ;)
Jon has some really large and very shiny white teeth. I wonder if High Densiovans can do basic math? Certainly the lower order are challenged. They can do tin foil on the head fashion though.
Jealous. What you really need is some high octane gas not cut with ethanol.
Due to the incompatible detonation points between gasoline and ethanol, the blend will burn the values out and wear the engine. The ethanol based octane booster might make it sound better.
But if you do not have the fuel injection, it will still burn out the valves. As has been done to all the boat engines across America. Without disclosure or even acknowledgement from the wildly lawless Obama EPA.
Oh Corny stag monster Opie,
I like Jon. He is a good family man. He does benefits. He does genuinely care about people.
Plus I do feel for him. He knows Obama is guilty of abusing the IRS for selfish power. Only one man has the power to attempt such an outlandish cover up. Six hard drives fail and are recycled? No backup records? The NSA can not trace the emails?
Obama will not escape history nor will the failure of the press which is collectivist. Therefore the majority have no shame and look what they gave birthed and animated.
Brilliant as Jon is, so much escapes him. All together it makes him very fascinating and likeable.
Jon was very wrong about Syria.
Now Jon makes a good living mocking people. Usually merited in some measure but not always. Usually he is very good at nuance so it is not overly harsh. Usually.
Hey I do not watch MSNBC or Maher. Simple ignorance matched with tantum and anger. Not interesting like the OLB.
Jon is interesting. Especially his religion and god of 'who give a darn' positivism.
Which of course is the worst possible combination with 'activist' government. As the disgrace and danger of Obama/Reid and Pelosi proves.
Nothing that a few 'I am not responsible' chants along with rounds of golf with political fund raising will not cover. Oh yea republicans and the tea party are now outraged with Obama because they are racist. NOt because our government is functioning close to a third world crony capital state.