'Process Innovations' to hold down expenses? What percentage of employees are designated as Manager or above? Hint - the company is top heavy in a big way.
an analyst with Leerink Swann in Boston, cut his sales forecast for Incivek by 35 percent from $2.3 billion this year to $1.5 billion. Liang also cut his target price for Vertex shares from $66 to $48.
Bad news... they will only sell $1.5 billion this year, before the CF drug is added in. How many companies would call that bad news?
Sadly shorts are driving the price down ahead of earnings again. It seems that no matter how high above estimates the numbers come in they are able to spin it as a negative. It's incredible that record breaking sales are discounted because competition may impact them two or more years from now. I'm ready to take my money and go play somewhere else.
Not entirely true... they make lots of money, they just tend to spend it long before earning it. The new building in S.Boston for example.
Agreed - this does not bode well for VRTX. Gilead has a more established pipeline/trial/sales operation and should be able to move the Pharmasset drugs to market as soon as possible. Until then however, VRTX does own the majority of the HepC market.
>>>VRTX is building a huge office complex on the boston waterfront...i am sure it is not to bring their bankruptcy lawyers in.
Actually, they had previously built a new facility in Kendal Square only to have to rent it out when they couldn't afford to move in. Later, when they needed the space they had to rent additional office space because they had leased out their new building. I'm sure that couldn't happen again ;-)
I certainly hope they're wrong. As I said, they have historically recommended VRTX, so the change in opinion is puzzling.
If the Q4 Incivek sales numbers are not good I'm afraid we'll see another significant drop in share price. The long term picture is brighter, but over the years it's the short sellers who have profited the most on this stock (IMO).
Motley Fool is usually cheerleading for VRTX, so this is unsettling.
I would guess that shorties are betting that a hiccup in tomorrow's earnings report are going to send the stock price south. Of course positive news should provide a nice uptick in price. This is a tough one to call; Matt Emmons says that the numbers will reflect a "historic launch". IMS data seems to indicate that sales have already leveled off. Which will it be?
Rash? What's a little anemia and neutropenia compared to a temporary rash?
In the big picture, the rash is a minor issue. Patients who develop the rash can always try Merck.
Malpractice for prescribing an FDA approved drug for its intended purpose? Not likely. Merck will definitely take a bite out of the market, the question is really just how much? My original post was just pointing out that VRTX has no track record as a Sales/Marketing organization and also has very limited experience in commercial operations. Regardless, VRTX is sitting on a blockbuster and the market is theirs to lose.
Don't count your chickens yet... VRTX clearly has the superior product to date. What VRTX does not have is an established Sales and Marketing capability. The existing physician relationships of the Merck/Roche team give them a distinct advantage in this area. VRTX has the better drug, how successful they will be in marketing it is still unknown.
Looks like Genzyme will be acquired next week, leaving fewer companies on the shopping list of big pharma.
The currently approved treatments don't improve survival time either. Fludara and Campath have horrible rates of neutropenia as well as other serious side effects. The options for a CLL patient with refractory disease (no longer esponding to Fludata combo therapies) are extremely limited... If GNTA can help these patients they are filling a desperate need.
Bushie is all about rhetoric and ideology, not science. He is not going to be able to stop stem cell research in the US, and if he somehow does the research will simply move to another country. Stem cell derived therapies are going to happen, either in the US or from abroad. What is the benefit to America if we prevent US companies from being the leaders in this emerging technology?
If the clinical trial for CLL is even mildly positive, this stock is going to rocket. If you want a predictable return, go buy some P&G or other consumer staple. This stock has lottery appeal - huge return if you can afford the risk.