I think the 3rd Quarter will be close to 55M to 60M way above Glu's guidance.
25M run rate from 2nd quarter to 3rd quarter
23M for KK
4M for Hercules
8M for Dino Hunter
I actually think these may all be somewhat conservative, we should have a good idea about Hercules and Dino hunter performance in the next 2 weeks.
I believe a region 6 and something related to Thanksgiving... Like a turkey hunt... or something.
So with only a month or so left in the Qtr, if DH14 can stay in the top 10 grossing, I would think a conservative view should bring in17 - 18M vs the 15M that they forecasted DH14 only.
EW3 is looking fairly good in beta, I'm hoping it can do 25%- 35% better then earlier versions.
FPC awarded new smartphone DW from existing prominent Asian OEM customer for launch with leading US operator
Press release, Gothenburg
September 02, 2013
Fingerprint Cards’ swipe sensor technology has been awarded yet another Design Win (DW) from an existing, well-renowned Asian OEM customer for an additional smartphone scheduled to be launched by a top US operator during the first quarter of 2014.
Fingerprint Cards (FPC) has earlier announced multiple mobile and tablet DWs in Japan, China and Korea, with the first phones in Japan and Korea recently launched to the market. FPC is now proud to announce another major follow-up DW from one of its most distinguished customers for launch with a major US operator. Due to the prevailing competitive situation, the mobile phone manufacturer and the operator want to remain anonymous until further notice.
Johan Carlström, CEO of FPC comments: “This design win is another milestone for our company. The first two market launches of our swipe sensor technology have been for operators in Japan and Korea. This latest DW is for a smartphone being launched by a top US operator, and we are proud that this important and innovative feature is being requested by a leading player in one of the world’s principal markets. The latest DW is a result of the strong market recognition we are receiving for our world-class product quality and dedicated customer support. Due to its world-leading capacitive fingerprint technology, image quality and lower power consumption, FPC has now further strengthened its world-leading position in fingerprint sensors for mobile phones and tablets. We expect to secure additional multiple DWs with both new and existing customers during the remainder of 2013 and beyond.
*FPC definition of Design Win (DW): The decision by a device vendor (OEM or ODM) to start development of one or several commercial product(s) incorporating FPC’s technology into such new product(s
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I certainly believe BKYI may get a big bump if and when the Apple I phone has a sensor, I currently believe that BKYI is under the radar and once investors try to figure who can possibly make money directly or indirectly in BKYIs case they will purchase the stock. BKYI is really the only real pure play in the United States for fingerprint biometrics on the public market so that will help out as well.
Even if there is no sensor a couple of smaller Asian companies just started shipping smartphones with sensors overseas and there are rumors regarding Samsung and HTC and of course Microsoft 8.1 is pushing biometrics.
Unfortunately if the I phone does not have the sensor and with the poor results last Qtr then our money may be dead money until some type of major event and the stock price may even drop a little more short term.
I will be watching volume this week and that should give some indication if the stock will jump or not.
I personally believe a fingerprint sensor on an Iphone, IPAD, Samsung phone or a HP laptop/tablet will really move bkyi stock price as anyone of the above brings fingerprint scanners more mainstream. We already know Microsoft has included biometric code in windows 8.1 and Apples 7.0 has a biometric kit so now we just need the physical sensor to help bio key sell their solution into the commercial space.
Certainly a delay in the sensor as some rumors have surfaced will not be good, although there are several articles regarding sensors going more mainstream oversees in particular Asia which is nice but not exactly what we need.
I think a decent earnings report (doesn't need to be great) followed by an Apple product with a sensor will send BKYI trading to the 50 cent - 75 cent range at least as people will see the next big thing is around the corner. I now have so many passwords I do not log into several websites as I can not remember my password anymore in particular on my smartphone.
Bottom line - If and when Apple or Samsung introduce a phone and/or tablet with a fingerprint sensor BKYI stock price will go up just on the news alone. Typically its buy on rumor and sell on the news.... in this case I think its buy some on the rumor and buy more on the news. Revenue and profit must soon follow but I would like to think Apple and/or Samsung will bring biometric sensors mainstream.
We all know of the rumors of Apple and a fingerprint sensor now there is rumors that Samsung is working on incorporated one.
Article in Techcrunch mentions apps starting to make good revenue in China, top grossing app in China for Apple is approx 3.5M a month. Glu has a couple of games in the 50 top grossing games and several in the 100 top grossing games. Should be interesting to see the impact of international countries on revenue this Qtr in particular China (Asia).
I've been noticing the same thing. For whatever reasons Glu games seem to be doing very well in China.
Eternity Warriors 2 = Top 20 Grossing - right around the 12th spot
Contract Killers 2 = Top 50 Grossing - in the 40's
Heros of Destiny = Top 75 Grossing - got as high as 18 for a couple of days
D-Day = Top 75 Grossing - moving quickly up
With 1.3 Billion people and the 2nd largest GDP in the world this can be the boost the company needs the games are also doing fairly well in South Korea and Russia. I think most investors are over looking the the international upside to Glu.
If the Chinese market every opens up to gambling just think of the possibilities as Macau (Las vegas of China) is on fire right now.
I doubt BKYI has anything to do with it.
That being said if an Apple phone or tablet comes out with a fingerprint biometric it would still help BKYIas it would take fingerprint biometrics mainstream. Apple has taken a hit lately but they are still the cool company and they are due for a big bang with their products as the last couple were a yawn fest. If Apple comes out with a fingerprint biometric I would expect to see a jump in the stock price and it should help push the biometric market forward.
I am very disappointment in the lack of a CC despite Mike saying he would update us, as share holders we deserve better but at this point I think we are at a make or break time. They will either take off this year or fail its that simple.
I went into the CC thinking the worst especially with the Amazon news. That being said after listening to the CC I felt much better about the company, I suggest everyone listen or read the CC. Of course talk is just talk so I'm not going to dive to far in until I see revenue from other products then E- Readers.
I was in a similar company several years ago who have many designs wins as well and eventually the stock took off although it was a bumpy ride early on.
Since Neon on licenses the technology they have very high margins so if and when the revenue starts to kick in it should not take to long for it to hit the bottom line.
I noticed the bad reviews for Meep as well. The bad reviews didn't seem to be directed at the screen or swiping. Obviously Neon wants to support good products, hopefully Oregon Scientific will work out the issues.
The country is hurting real bad. Even though I believe BO will lose the election I hope people who live in Ohio and work for GM will look at BO's entire record which he will not even run on. He promised to cut the debt in half but instead gave us 6 trillion in debt with no plan to fix. Each year that goes by we leave our children with the burden of this debt and if China decides to stop lending us money then all of our jobs are at risk.
Has the company ever mentioned losing Amazon as a customer? I'm new to the stock and don't remember them saying so although they alluded to weakness in the e-reader market which is not exactly mentioning losing Amazon.
Thanks in advance.
I think losing Amazon if true should be concerning although this guy not factoring in over 50 design wins is somewhat foolish. Although design wins do not mean automatic customers or revenue companies need to invest valuable time and effort and would not waste their time unless they felt the technology had some benefits. Personally I can care less about Telsa as no one buys Telsa cars right now except people in Hollywood.
Over reaction for a company that will be growing revenues 75% YOY with 90% margins in the hottest trend. Will hit their guidance even with average games hitting the market which tells me the mobile trend is alive and well. I like to think that they will learn from their mistakes this Quarter and do better going forward. I also believe real gambling will be a big opportunity, if you look at the top grossing there a many gambling games and real gambling could help them monetize many more gamers.
An Apple Mini tablet release in the next several weeks may help them have a good 4th Qtr especially during the Christmas time frame. Rumors are swirling that Apple is expecting to sell 10 Million of them, take it with a grain of salt.
I think smaller cheaper tablets will be another driver for GLUU as it will allow for better game play. Now we just need someone to invent a wireless controller or snap on as touch screens have gotten better but are still not ideal for hard core games.
Although they had no hits this Qtr its nice to know that they will hit their guidance, although maybe with a little help by early releasing some 4th Qtr games.
Glu is still in the very early stages of a major wave that should still carry Glu and its games to a much better place in the next several months.
Playing several Glu games on the Iphone I still find playing some of the hard core games a little difficult with the small screen size versus casual games. I say this because I believe a slightly bigger screen i.e. a tablet will bring a much better gaming experience and may keep gamers playing longer and buying more. As many of you have heard there are rumors swirling that Apple will have a mini tablet coming out soon. If this is true this could really help Glu as well as other gaming companies as I believe an 8 inch screen will be much better for gaming and the price point will be more affordable for all of those people wanting an Apple tablet. It is expected that the Apple Mini will be out before Christmas and if true could help out Glu assuming they have not factored it in and assuming the rumor mill is true. Early estimates are 10 Million Apple Mini's as I'm sure this will be the hot item for Christmas.
I also believe the gambling relationship could be a real winner as there is a ton of money in gambling and the demographic for gambling online has typically been young males right in Glu's wheel house.
Obviously this will take some time but not as long as many on this board has suggested as this will be a white label... meaning Glu isbasically going to leverage some of their games and more important traffic to these slots machines which I hope over time will add poker, black jack etc. Don't forget there are many people that Glu does not monetize and this would be another opportunity to expose the millions of Glu fans to online gambling.
I'm no patent attorney but I do know that the big boys are on a buying spree for patents related to anything mobile.
With Apple sueing Samsung over patents and buying AUTH and Google buying companies for their patents one has to wonder what value may be put on BKYI's Patents.
With Apple buying AUTH I certainly think its reasonable to think that security on Mobile is coming around the corner.
If and when BKYI can benefit from this is the million dollar question.
Personally I think forecasting is more the issue than a breakdown in the business. Unfortunately, when your forecasting is so bad you lose the confidence of the investing community.
In the first Qtr GMCR beat sales expectations by approx. 100m and beat eps by approx. 24C so my sense is that they pulled a lot of sales forward.