Anyone do the math ? I have. Now if we assume $2/lb coffee vs $1.20 coffee in the Jan qtr, then JVA will make 66% more in revenues for the April qtr than the Jan qtr, even with no more product being sold. If we also assume 66% more in operating expenses, use the same 15% margins as the Jan qtr, use the same tax rate of 37% as the Jan qtr, then they would post $.35 for the qtr. However that doesn't factor in the larger margins we'll be seeing from the $9M in inventory as of Jan 31, or the likely increase in pounds of coffee sold.
Bottom line- we will likely see $.40+ for the April qtr. How much of that will be hedging gains we don't know, but even if we use the same % as we saw in the Jan qtr, they''ll still post $.23+ fully taxed and diluted. Then again, what if coffee goes up even more ? Seems like the stock is worth more like $15 than $8 IMO, and that's based on a conservative 16 PE fully taxed going forward. If we give the stock a 20 PE going forward, its worth more like $18-$20.
Geoinvesting is wrong. Even without the hedging gain, they still made around $.12 fully taxed. Also the $9M inventory at Dec 31 will carry huge margins, and the price of coffee is now at $2 vs $1.20 for the Dec qtr. What geoinvesting is missing is that the Mar qtr will be huge, and so might be the rest of the year. Maybe they should have covered their short this morning.
The $9M of inventory at Dec 31 will carry big margins, plus the price of coffee has gone up to $2 from $1.20 in the Dec qtr. Hedging gain did result in about $.09 for the Dec qtr, but still they made $.12 after tax, and should make well over double that in the Mar qtr.
I love the story with PEIX. Increased exports coming, approaching 100% ownership, opening Madera plant- strong growth expected all during 2014, margins to sustain going forward. super low PE going forward of around 3.5, etc ,etc. Sheesh ! What more can one ask for. Also it doesn't matter that the stock has risen a ton from it's lows, as it's still rediculously cheap- Here's why.
They're probably going to make at least $1 in EPS/qtr with the Madera plant running as of the June qtr, even including dilution from warrants. So going forward I think it prudent to assume $4 in EPS annualy starting in the June qtr. If you tack on a 10 PE, the stock is worth $40.
It really surprises me we haven't see $12 or so, as the stock really seems stunted, as if it wants very badly to retrace more. Not to say it isn't worth $30+.
For now the stock is in retrace mode. However if we saw the full retracment from $16.50 at $12.55 yesterday, thenn $20-$25 is right around the corner. If not, then we see $12 or so yet.
haven't made much yet, but they sure will if Zerenex gets FDA approval. Those intstitutions that bought the shares are no dummies- they know they stock is worth a whole lot more than $14.50.
Normally I'd say the stock would retrace a bit before resuming rally mode. However with PEIX being worth $30+, it may not happen. Still sitting with dry powder just in case it does.
PEIX could be worth $30+ , yet still go down to the $12s or less ? I think it's possible, and I have been selling other stocks to have more cash, in case PEIX keeps retracing.
Anything much below $14, and I'll start buying more. First at $13.50, $13, $12.50, and then $12 should it go there.