Don't be greedy. The stock has gone down 27% since FDA approval on pure manpulation, and you want to gamble it'll go down another 3% ? By Friday, the stock could be in the $15s, regardless of how good you think your reasoning is.
What surprises me is how easily the shorts can control a stock, even when news is good. The FDA approval was good news for KERX, whether the shorts say so or not. Just blatant manipulation using the warning label as an excuse to scare the heck out of the longs.
You are the fool. Stocks go down on manipulation as often as they go down on fudamentals. You just keep thinking just because a stock goes down, means there's something wrong, and you'll be broke in no time.
bg- Do you think that all the analysts rating the stock except for FBR don't have any idea ? Here are how the five analysts listed are valuing the stock right now...
Keryx Biopharma color following FDA approval of ferric citrate (15.87 -1.14) : Shares of Keryx Biopharm (KERX) are down 8% this morning following the FDA approval of their ferric citrate (no brand name yet) on Friday. Shares experienced an eventful trading day on Friday, ahead of the expected PDUFA as shares quickly plummeted and then were halted. Shortly after, the company reported the positive ruling, but noted a restrictive label guideline from the FDA. Shares re-opened down 18% to $14.80, but rebounded and closed around $17 down 5% on the day. Analyst commentary has been all across the board this morning, here are the most noteworthy:
Maxim Group reiterated their Buy rating and $24 target noting they see additional catalysts to drive the stock over the next year, including: (1) an announcement of pricing and a new name; (2) a data presentation at the American Society for Nephrology meeting in November, with additional data presentations and publications at other upcoming scientific meetings
Mizuho reiterated their Buy rating and $30 target seeing FDA approval a big positive; the iron overload warning, is misunderstood, and actually a good thing
MLV is reiterating a Buy rating and $21 target on expected launch within 3 months and a positive that the FDA did not require any post-approval studies
Brean Capital maintained their Buy rating and $26 target noting the iron benefit is still as real as it ever was, proclaim they are not worried about the concern about the warning label, and that bundle economics will help bolster the company
On the other side of the fence, FBR downgraded shares to underperform with a $14 target noting a lack of positive catalysts to offset the commercial uncertainties.
I am. Every nephrologist I hear chime in says the warning label means little, excpet to tell doctors that if their patients are already on lV Iron, that they will need to monitor iron levels, possibly having to decrease, or completely stop taking their lV Iron. The manipulators think investors aren't to swift, and I'd have to agree based on the stock movement. Either way though, many analysts are raising their targets, with around $26 now being the average. Unreal to see this carnage to such a blockbuster drug.
What you think of posts by bglbfrd ? He's very negative on Zerenex, and says that the warning label is a real deterent. I'm no expert in the field, but he does cite info from KERX documents to back up his opinions. He also says if the FDA thought the drug could be used for patients with anemia, they would have stated that on the label. Therefore he doesn't think the drug will be used very effectively for the huge potential market of patients with early stage reneal disease with anemia. He basically thinks the drug will be a flop, taking only 10% of the market share, and only worth around $4-$5.
Is that right ?
Hard to believe the stock is only worth $13 now, when it was worth $18 before approval. The warning label has little consequence to every single nephrologist that's chimed in, so what's really going on ?
Why ? Because even if their drug is only used for CKD, I feel it still will produce $.70-$1.00 in EPS within a couple years. If those figures are right, the stock is worth $20-$30 just based on that. However what if the drug is used by those with early stage renal disease in addition ? The company will finish phase lll on that end soon enough. The market then becomes triple the revenue stream, and the potential becomes huge. My feeling is, the stock is worth a minimum of $20 right now, and could easily be worth $40+ within a year or two.
Darn right, it's not about the warnings. However it's not about huge doubts over whether KERX can market the drug either in my view. Every nephrologist thats chimed in on Zerenex has said it's by far the best phosphate binder out there, especially since in addition it can be substituted for costly Iron suppliment regiments as well. It worked for 90%+ in clinical trials to get CKD patients off their Iron suppliments, and will likely show the same high % in real practice.
In addition of course, as we all know, the market for the drug possibly to be used in early stage renal disease is huge, and dwarfs the market for Zerenex for CKD. With such unreal potential, there is no way that money will be an issue, and in fact KERX may fast become a buyout target. No, I think without a doubt that what we are seeing with KERX down 25%+ since FDA approval is pure manipulation in order for Institutions to get in on the cheap, and let the shorts out at the same time. Simple as that.
poorman- You will be poorer yet with that kind of reasoning
1) Insider sold as an automatic transaction to pay his taxes, and he had no discretion as to the timing of it.
2) Short interest was 21M on 8/29 but we don't know what it is now since FDA approval. Maybe news leaked to the shorts about the warning label- who knows. Either way, the shorts look to be in trouble in my view, especially with the potential use of Zerenex for a huge additional revenue stream from patients with early stage renal disease. That market in fact will likely triple or more the revenues they will make from treating CKD patients on dyalisis.
3) It is short term investors & traders that have gone. Long term investors with half a brain realize that the warning label has no meaning except to tell doctors to monitor iron levels while on Zerenex. In fact the ability of Zerenex to increase iron levels is a huge positive(as attested by nephrologists all over the world), and will enable a high % or those on iron suppliments to get off them.
4) Ferric Citrate in the form over the counter is far different in both surface area and dissolution than Zerenex. That's why the drug was FDA approved as a totally different entity. It works in a different way, and is hugely more effective. In fact more affective than any phosphate binder on the market today.