Unless they know something we don't, shorts still hanging on at $10 are likely starting to get uneasy. Just for starters, the fact that script #s have crept up to 250/week(including 50 refills) with only half the insurers on board. and only 20 weeks on the market so far must be concerning. This especially true with no pharma partner is likely also unsettling to the shorts, as KERX going it on their own(if successful) will bring in much higher profits.
Believe me, shorts are also looking at the weekly script #s closely, and one thing they don't want to see is, script #s trending up, especially with only half the insurers on board, and still so early in the game. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the shorts are trying desperately to keep the stock down by any means, but IMO they can only keep this up for so long should more insurers get on board, and especially if scipt #s keep trending up.
Baupost, headed by Seth Klarman, has been recognized for years as among the most successful hedge funds anywhere. The Wall Street Journal wrote in March that “Klarman is one of the best-known ‘value investors’ in finance,” and notes that “he makes large, long-term investments in assets he believes to be undervalued.” Charles Lewis Sizemore, founder and principal of Sizemore Capital Management, wrote in a blog post last month that “Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group may very well be the smartest man the finance. He’s certainly one of the most successful.”
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So when Baupost makes an investment, it tends to attract notice. As an example, one needs look no further than the fund’s investment last year in Idenix Phamaceuticals. The situation was in some ways similar to Keryx, with short interest growing in Idenix while Baupost simulaneously upped its own stake. In June Idenix was sold to Merck for $4 billion — more than triple the company’s market value — and the deal netted Baupost $875 million.
So is Klarman hoping to do the same thing with Keryx? If Baupost has increases or maintains its position, that’s a sign Klarman intends to take on the short investors directly, which could help Keryx reverse the decline in its stock price.
Florida- What do you make of the fact that institutional ownership was at a record 90% as of Mar 31, and the average price target is 150% higher than the stock is today ? Also I'm sure you've heard of Seth Klarman and the Baupost group. Seth has one of the best records in history for picking winners. He is known as the Oracle of Boston. Seth just keeps buying more KERX, and in fact bought 4M more shares last qtr for a record 22.3M shares owned.
Are we supposed to believe that the drug will be a failure because the shorts say so ? The drug has only been on the market for a few months. How in the world could anyone know much about the success or failure of Auryxia at this point, especially when KERX only has 7-8 of 15 Insurers on board. What seems more plausible to me is, the shorts have manipulated this stock persistently since FDA approval due to the warning of high iron levels(which really is a benefit), and due to the slow launch with no pharma partner. I really don't see any other rationale reason for the stock is being hit day in and day out, despite script #s improving, other than short manipulation.
I for one have been on the side of Seth Klarman & the baupost group, as he has been right a much higher % of the time over the years than the shorts, and the last time he had a simliar battle with the shorts, the shorts lost bad- very bad, as that biotech company got bought out for 200% higher out of nowhere, despite the huge short interest at the time.
My goodness, what happens next !
Maybe wise to sell at $100, and buy back at $95 ?
Excuse the last post, as I was using another computer that wasn't working right. Anyway, here's why the stock is worth $10+ right now...
Excellent balance sheet, with over $2/share in cash alone. They made $.15 EPS for the Mar qtr, and gave guidence of even higher revenues for the June qtr. The company is expanding their relationship with Google big time, as evidenced by the persistent job placements by BSQR lately where Google is located. The growth is huge, and likely to continue at the pace of 50%+ yoy going forward for both revenues and EPS. Their customers are very respected ie Coca Cola & Google. Margins are trending up as well. With all this, the stock is surely worth at least a 20 PE going forward.
Assuming they make $.60 for 2015, that would be a $12 target, and assuming $.70. that would be a $14 target. The big thing to note here is that the company is growing rapidly, and with the best of customers, and at the same time, keeping a very healthy balance sheet with lots of cash, and with low debt levels. I realize the stock just rallied nicely from $5 to $7, but it's worth much more. I personally would take all dips to be buying opps.
Your PE estimate for BSQR is way off. The average PE in the Russell 2000 for a software company growing like BSQR is 20+ going forward. I see no problem giving BSQR a 20 PE going forward, especially with their strong balance t, and fast growing relationship with Google. I estimate $.60-$.70 for calender year 2015, and a $12-$14 price target.
Maybe Seth wants more shares on the cheap. I'm thinking he buys another 20M shares, and gets his average basis to around $12
Spill, bottom line is, I believe Seth Klarman knows more than the shorts. His average price is $14 for 22.3M shares, and he keeps adding on every drop. Shorts are banking on KERX not getting the other 8 of 15 Insurers on board, and that Auryxia will flop, even if they get approval next year for the use of the drug in early stage renal disease with anemia. There is an astounding 90% Institutional holders in KERX, and that keeps rising. Time will tell who's right.
I read that the Baupost average buy price on KERX so far as of Mar 31 is around $14. I bet Seth Klarman has been adding shares in the $9s and $10s. I like Seths track record a lot, and we know that the shorts were all over KERX since FDA approval. We can be assured that the shorts had zero idea how successful Auryxia would be after FDA approval. They simply attacked the stock, knowing that any company going it alone to sell their drug would have a slow launch. Thing is, KERX has 8 of the 15 Medicare part D Insurers on board, and over time, they'll get the other 7.
In the meantime, how much lower can the shorts take the stock ? I believe we saw the low at $8.90, but who knows. Either way, I'm going along with Seth Klarman & the Baupost group, as KERX is one of their top 5 positions, with the fund having $36B in assets !
Do you have any fundamental analysis to go along with your view of more downside ? What do you think BSQR wil make in EPS for the June qtr ? What margins do you think they'll have in their 3 divisions going forward ? Do you feel it likely the company has under promised & will over deliver(as they did for the Mar qtr) in their revenue guidance of $25M- $28M for the June qtr ? What about all the hiring going on lately. Seems huge amounts of new hiring for the June qtr.
STRL has put assets up as collateral for a loan, just as you or anyone else would need assets as collateral to get a loan. They haven't pawned their equipment as you suggest- they can use their equipment whenever they want.
Well we'll know soon enough. The new CEO isn't taking a salary, only stock. Earnings are coming out May 11, and I expect them to post less of a loss than expected, and to guide for a profit, either in the June or Sept qtr. Bottom line is, the backlog has 6,5% margins attached, and the CEO said in the Dec qtr earnings report to expect higher than that. He also said revenues will grow in 2015 as they did in 2014. Well they grew 20% in 2014. If you crunch the numbers on $800M revenues and 7% margins, the company would post around $1 in EPS from the June qtr 15 to the June qtr 16.. I guess you can look at it as the glass is half empty, but I think STRL is on the comeback trail. Time will tell.
I'm buggin, because your story doesn't add up. That is, if you were in the industry for so long, why would you give us a number that can't be verified, and then state that Darkstools and Hedgies will become quite familiar with this number. You must have known that the SEC would not discuss this number with anyone, and there would be no way for us to verify it, nor follow the case with it.
Lastly it is noteworthy that you called it a case #, as this is just a receipt number for a complaint, and if there was a case, there would be another number given. I would think you'd have know this also.
Yes, but my question was and still is, why did you give a TCR #, when it can not be verified ? Also why did you call it a case # ? The SEC said it is only a reference # to a complaint, not a case #. Here is what you said in your post...
" Darkstools and Hedgies will be quite familiar with this case number below in the coming days."