We will surely find out by Aug 15, when June qtr earnings come out. I mean if backlog is not $100M or more, then he's fluff. In the meantime though, with the prospect of huge increases in revenues going forward, I believe $1.80 is a steal.
"Since our first quarter ended March 31, 2014, we have continued to grow our MSA business. Based upon MSAs awarded (or recommended for award) since March 31st, we estimate MSAs will produce aggregate revenue representing a significant multiple of the $50 million reflected in our backlog at March 31, "
Now that is why I've been loading lately. Can't wait to see June 30 backlog. I estimate $100M+ !
dfa- What's important to know is not when the warrants expire, but how much total dilution they'll be from them. If you read the most recent SEC documents, you can see that there are about 4M warrants still out there. The fully diluted c count going forward after all warrants are exercised will be about 25M shares. The overhang on the stock IMO has little to do with the warrants. Bottom line is, PEIX is very cheap even if you figure 25M shares and a 35% tax rate coming. The overhang on the stock is simply that no one knows whether the kind of profits seen in the March quarter will continue.
One huge factor is the EPA mandate on how much ethanol is to be used per gallon of gas. That's supposed to be announced in late June, as is the announcment of the companys likely addition to the Russell 2000. In addition to all this, we need more transparency on ethanol demand from other countries ie China. Lastly no one can possibly know where the crush spread (margins) will continue to be high. That all depends on the spread between corn prices and ethanol prices, which is strong for PEIX at present.
Bottom line is, since there are so many factors to speculate on, and the stock has gone up quite a bit this year already, investors are being careful. I for one think PEIX is a great bet here to go to the $20 area over the coming months, so I'm all in. I like REX as well.
I Emailed Investor Relations just now, and talked a good bit about needing more transparency- Specifically with margins attached to all the new MSAs, and the need to clarify what a "significant mutiple" of the $50M present MSA backog means. I have actually been buying more shares here since the shareholder letter.
Is there any other stock anyone can mention with a market cap of over $100M, selling on a major exchange, which has a PE of 4-5 going forward fully taxed and diluted, with strong growth expected over the next year ?
A significant multiple is not one ! I would say more like 5-10, but to be conservative, lets say 4. I believe $200M over 4 years is acrtually super conservative, especially being they've increased the MSAs from near zero to $50M in only the last few months ! So $200M/16 quarters is $12.5M/qtr. Being that GV is did $21M outside their backlog this last quarter, that would mean $33.5M/qtr conservatively over the next 4 years. I believe that we can use 18% margins, so around $.09/qtr going forward. IMO that assumption would put the stock target at around $4.
They made $1.50 in the Mar qtr on 16M fd shares. If we figure all warrants exercised, and add in all recent dilution. that would take us to about 25M shares. So that would mean 9/25, or 36% dilution going forward. Therefore the $1.50 Mar qtr would be $.96 if we use the 25M share count. Also we need to assume 35% taxes are coming, so the $.96 would be $.62 after taxes.
However important to note is that the Madera Plant just opened in the June qtr, and will add around 25%-30% more production, so this could mean $.75+/qtr going forward fully diluted and fully taxed. That would annulize to $3, and with a stock price of $13, PEIX in essence is selling at a 4 PE going forward !
PEIX is another good one in the Ethanol space. They made $1.52 from operations for the Mar qtr(vs $13 stock price), but will have more fully diluted shares in the June qtr due to warrant exercise. Bottom line is, even after figuring all warrants exercised & the higher fully diluted share count going forward, PEIX is still very cheap, and selling at around a 4 PE fully diluted going forward. They just opened up a 5th factory(Madera Plant), which should add another 25%-30% in production.
Hweb, I concur. In fact I believe the way the word "significant" was used by the CEO means more like 3-5 fold x $50M over the next 3-5 years. To me, this would be more in line with what makes sense. I mean, if GV has been posting around $20M/qtr in revenues outside the backlog, then if we assume $200M over the next 4 years, pluse $20M/qtr, that would mean around $32-$33M/qtr, which is more in line with what I expect by 2015. However I also expect margins will be lower with MSAs than the fixed price contracts, and will be somewhere around 20%.
Either way, GV is slated to post $.08+/qtr by late 2014, or early 2015 in my opinion. Also if backlog continues to rise, maybe revenues could reach $40M/qtr in 2015, and then we would really start seeing a spike in EPS to $10+/qtr. I really believe the stock is a no brainer here under $2, and I suspect more will pour into the stock over the coming weeks/months.
Ethanol going up, corn going down, more production with Madera, more demand worldwide. Going forward, PEIX will likely post $.70/qtr AFTER warrants are fully exercised, and after we tack on a 35% tax rate. That would put the stock selling at under a 5 PE going forward. There is no cheaper ethanol play out there.
Which would you rather have ?
Give me a break- revenues will be much higher going forward for sure. I believe we'll see $30M/qtr by the Dec qtr, and in the $35M-$40M/qtr next year. Also, even if the new MSAs have lower margins(ie 18%), GV will still post $.10/qtr by 2015.
REX is selling at about a 6 PE going forward, while PEIX is selling at a 5 PE going forward. This is true even assuming the max dilution for PEIX right now from the warrants. So in other words, using 25M shares, plus a 35% tax rate(which won't happen for a few quarters), PEIX will still likely post $2.75 or so in EPS vs a $13.20 stock price. REX will make around $10 going forward vs a $67 stock price.
Here is my take on EPS into the June-Dec qtrs 2014, assuming crush spreads trends continue... When we look at stocks like REX, GPRE, etc, we see they're recieving 10-12 PEs going forward fully taxed. So what PE going forward is PEIX recieving. Well first to do an accurate comparison, we need to assume PEIX paying taxes at 35%, and that going forward later this year, they'll have around 25M shares fully diluted(after 4.9M remaining warrants are exercised). If we do that, I believe PEIX will post $.50+/qtr fully taxed and diluted.
Bottom line is, PEIX is selling at around a 6 PE going forward, while their peers are about double that. Bashers on this board point out the dilution, and say if after all shares are added up, PEIX is actually over valued. However the truth is, PEIX has strong production growth going forward with healthy margins, is paying down debt substantially, and is selling at half the valuation of their peers.
what blend would that be ?
You are misleading investors to think that dilution would change things so much. Even if we assume full dilution from the warrants and the 1.75M recent shares issued, PEIX would still be selling at a 4 PE going forward.