If they go substantially over 100, then I believe the stock is on the way to
$15. Personally I believe the analysts that decreased targets lately will be inreasing targets as soon as KERX announces the 60%+ Insurers on board by end of April(that they alluded to in their last call) for Auryxia to be covered under Medicare part D. On that announcement, the stock will hit $18+ IMO.
It amazes me that despite Auryxia getting into the two largest Dialysis centers in the US, despite Institutions continuing to add shares as of 12/31/14, despite the company telling investors that they expect 60% of Insurers for medicare part D to be on board by end of April, despite phase 3 studies on ESRD going well with the promise of 3-4 times revenues on approval in 2016, and despite the fact that every phosphate binder out there had slow initial sales, investors continue to sell off the stock. Why ?
You've seen KERX go from $18 right before approval to $11 after approval. It's like the stock was dead on approval. I've heard zero fundamental reasons for this. The warning lable is bogus, so forget that one. NCE would be fine, but isn't needed with KERX having patents on oral use out to 2024. KERX is in phase lll for use of Auryxia for non dialysis CKD patients with anemia. That market would be 3-4 times as big as the current one. Bottom line is, shorts may have initially used the warnng label and lack of NCE status at first to keep the stock down, but now they're playing with fire IMO.
In addition, institutions have overall(as of 12/31/14) been adding on the downslide from $18 in Sept, not selling. Who would sell a stock at 1/2 to 1/3 analyst targets, while institutions are loading ?
They had just one drug at the time, Vancomycin I believe. The form that they had though was to be use to treat Cdifficile bactieria causing severe interestinal problems in hospitals. At the time, there was also threat of a generic form coming out within months. I owned the stock at the time at $6, watched it go to $12.50, then back to $7 on concerns over the generic. A few months later, the stock went to $20 ! However I was out of the stock at $7.50 the very week it made it's lows, and with attack after attack about how the generic would kill sales.
They came in at 75 for the week ended 2/13 vs 57 for the week ended 2/6. the main thing is that we see growth, and there is. Also earnings coming out 2 weeks earlier than last year for the Dec qtr can't be bad news.
When your stock is manipulated, nothing matters.
ri66- I strongly believe KERX is being manipulated, but I have nowhere near your expertise. Anything you can do to prove there is illegal manipulation going on, including naked shorting is greatly appreciated. KERX is doing great, script #s are increasing, and Auryxia has a bright future with possible FDA extension of the use of the drug for patients with early stage renal disease with anemia.
I believe the stock has been manipulated ever since FDA approval, but like I say, I can't prove anything. Again, if you can prove there is illegal manipulation going on, please do. thanks again.
I would love to finally see a level playing feild.
I don't get this stock action for the life of me. EBITDA of $31M would suggest GAAP earnings near $.20 for 2015 & $.40 for 2016. In addition, if we value ANGI on non gaap adjusted EPS, it would be more like $.45 for 2015 & $.70 for 2016. Valuations for other companies in this sector are 30-40 times non gaap adjusted EPS, not GAAP EPS. So why in the world is ANGI so cheap ? I just don't get it.
Welcome to the world of hedge fund manipulation. The company didn't have a pharmacuetical partner on FDA approval, and no NCE. The shorts went to town on that, and have since controlled the stock for fearful longs. Now, because of the slow initial sales for Auryxia, the short have went to town again, and are suggesting the drug will be a flop. Fact is, KERX making a go of it on their own will give them bigger profits, and almost all new drugs have slow initial sales. When will the bleeding stop ? Hopefully this Friiday with the earnings report and conference call.
or more to compete for the next Galaxy, even if their fingerprint technology is as good. Can't expect zero competition anyway. Cowen raised price target to $105 from $95.
after the Dec qtr report & superb conference call, suggesting there is a turnaround in the making for STRL. I mean the stock price was $6 only weeks ago, and now with the Dec qtr report, we have more certainty than we've had for some time.
I don't get it.
Scripts are picking up. 100/week already with only 20% Medicare Part D Insureres on board. Davita & Ferensus Clinics on board. Institutions increasing their positions as of 12/31/15.
If I had to guess, I'd say there's naked shorting going on. Only way out for KERX is to post sequentially increasing script #s, and get as many Medicare part D insurers on board ASAP. KERX said 60% by end of April. Shorts are real determined with KERX, but I personally think they're just digging themselves deeper, as I believe Auryxia will be successful. Actually the only thing I'm personally dissapointed about, is that 14% of patients dicontinued the drug for gastrointestinal side effects. However if the drug is as I good as I think it is, 84% of the potential will still be huge, and I believe the drug will still do over $1B/year, assuming they get the FDA extension for use of Auryxia in early stage renal disease patients with anemia.