Maybe wise to sell at $100, and buy back at $95 ?
My goodness, what happens next !
Florida- What do you make of the fact that institutional ownership was at a record 90% as of Mar 31, and the average price target is 150% higher than the stock is today ? Also I'm sure you've heard of Seth Klarman and the Baupost group. Seth has one of the best records in history for picking winners. He is known as the Oracle of Boston. Seth just keeps buying more KERX, and in fact bought 4M more shares last qtr for a record 22.3M shares owned.
Are we supposed to believe that the drug will be a failure because the shorts say so ? The drug has only been on the market for a few months. How in the world could anyone know much about the success or failure of Auryxia at this point, especially when KERX only has 7-8 of 15 Insurers on board. What seems more plausible to me is, the shorts have manipulated this stock persistently since FDA approval due to the warning of high iron levels(which really is a benefit), and due to the slow launch with no pharma partner. I really don't see any other rationale reason for the stock is being hit day in and day out, despite script #s improving, other than short manipulation.
I for one have been on the side of Seth Klarman & the baupost group, as he has been right a much higher % of the time over the years than the shorts, and the last time he had a simliar battle with the shorts, the shorts lost bad- very bad, as that biotech company got bought out for 200% higher out of nowhere, despite the huge short interest at the time.
Baupost, headed by Seth Klarman, has been recognized for years as among the most successful hedge funds anywhere. The Wall Street Journal wrote in March that “Klarman is one of the best-known ‘value investors’ in finance,” and notes that “he makes large, long-term investments in assets he believes to be undervalued.” Charles Lewis Sizemore, founder and principal of Sizemore Capital Management, wrote in a blog post last month that “Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group may very well be the smartest man the finance. He’s certainly one of the most successful.”
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So when Baupost makes an investment, it tends to attract notice. As an example, one needs look no further than the fund’s investment last year in Idenix Phamaceuticals. The situation was in some ways similar to Keryx, with short interest growing in Idenix while Baupost simulaneously upped its own stake. In June Idenix was sold to Merck for $4 billion — more than triple the company’s market value — and the deal netted Baupost $875 million.
So is Klarman hoping to do the same thing with Keryx? If Baupost has increases or maintains its position, that’s a sign Klarman intends to take on the short investors directly, which could help Keryx reverse the decline in its stock price.
Unless they know something we don't, shorts still hanging on at $10 are likely starting to get uneasy. Just for starters, the fact that script #s have crept up to 250/week(including 50 refills) with only half the insurers on board. and only 20 weeks on the market so far must be concerning. This especially true with no pharma partner is likely also unsettling to the shorts, as KERX going it on their own(if successful) will bring in much higher profits.
Believe me, shorts are also looking at the weekly script #s closely, and one thing they don't want to see is, script #s trending up, especially with only half the insurers on board, and still so early in the game. The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced the shorts are trying desperately to keep the stock down by any means, but IMO they can only keep this up for so long should more insurers get on board, and especially if scipt #s keep trending up.
sofalo- When will BSQR start showing revenues from the Tango project ? How much in EPS/qtr do you think BSQR could post if the Tango project heats up, and what PE going forward would you attach ? thanks
Scripts have been slow to get traction, but now rising to 200 new/week, despite only half the insurers on board and no pharma partner, and only 5 months on the market. In addition, one of the most successful hedge fund investor in the world(Seth Klarman) can't get enough, and buys more every quarter to lower his average- now at 22.3M shares owned by Baupost group. Lastly overall Institutional ownership is rising, and hit an astounding 90% as of Mar 31. Yet the shorts keep pilng on & yelling, Auryxia will fail ! The increase in IV iron is a negative ! Ferritens are way too high !
If I were short, I'd be very nervous right now. Fact is, Auryxia is the ONLY phosphate binder on the market which both keeps phosphate levels under control, and raises iron levels, which overall is a great combination, and it will allow the patient to take one drug for both the anemia associated with CKD, and to treat the disease itself. Auryxia is now slowly but surely being recognized by nephrologists world wide, and I expect scripts to keep increasing for years to come, as more insurers get on board, and the drug becomes more accepted as best of breed to treat CKD & anemia.
Shorts have kept stock down through manipulation for many months. Bottom line is, as script #s keep rising, and more insurers get on board, the stock price will rally. Shorts have amazingly pushed the price down from $18.50 to $10, for product label warning, and slow launch. However I think it's over for the shorts, and we will soon start seeing a comeback in the stock price.
spill, sec is right. You really don't tell it the way it is. Your argument I have read many times. Fact is Auryxia is the ONLY drug on the market that someone with CKD can take that treats effectively both phosphate levels and low iron levels. Nephrocat has chimed in many times, and I fully agree with his view. Bottom line is, shorts have seen their day, and would be well advised to cover IMO.
Spill, how the stock has performed for the last 9 months has no bearing on whether Auryxia will be a success or not. KERX has no pharma partner, and the shorts knew this and knew the launch & insurers to get on board would likely be slow. This stock has been massively manipulated since the day of FDA approval till now.
This situation in KERX with shorts piling up and saying the drug will fail is parallel to Index Pharma a very short time ago. The shorts lost over 200% on that one last year I believe. Here is an excerpt from a recent article about Seth Klarman and the Baupost group...
"So when Baupost makes an investment, it tends to attract notice. As an example, one needs look no further than the fund’s investment last year in Idenix Phamaceuticals. The situation was in some ways similar to Keryx, with short interest growing in Idenix while Baupost simulaneously upped its own stake. In June Idenix was sold to Merck for $4 billion — more than triple the company’s market value — and the deal netted Baupost $875 million.
So is Klarman hoping to do the same thing with Keryx? If Baupost has increases or maintains its position, that’s a sign Klarman intends to take on the short investors directly, which could help Keryx reverse the decline in its stock price."
They had $29M in total expenses for the Mar qtr. They also had a 82% margins for the qtr. Assuming this stays constant, I've attempted to figure out how much in revenues Auryxia has to bring in to produce $1 in EPS/year. The answer is about 22K scripts/year @ $12K/script, or $264M in total revenues/year. Assuming all new scripts/week get refilled for the rest of the year, that would mean 423 new scripts/week are needed. We are now doing around 200 new scripts/week, 5 months in, with only 50% of the insurers on board. However here's the wild card that the shorts are betting against.
If KERX has phase lll studies go well for the use of Auryxia in early stage renal disease(ESRD) patients with anemia, then KERX will file for FDA approval of Auryxia for that purpose in early 2016. Here's the kicker- the market for ESRD is triple+ the market that KERX is using the drug now- later stage Cronic Kidney Disease(CKD) for patients on Dialysis.
So if KERX can get to 423 new scripts/week ongoing(22K/year) for CKD right now, they could make around $1 EPS/year, but it FDA approved for the use in ESRD, that number could triple or more to $3+ EPS/year. Mind you, this number could prove way too low as well, as we are still in the very early stages.
Good point. However as time goes on, refill #s will get closer to new script #s as a %. I am assuming that by the time we get to 400-500 new scripts/week, that 40%-50% will be refills. So maybe down the line we'd have to see 600-650 new scripts/week to see 423 refills. I would have to do some studying on new scripts vs refills over time to see how that % works out with other new drugs to make a more educated guess. Either way, KERX would triple+ revenues should they get Auryxia FDA approved for the use for patients with ESRD with anemia.
dj- where are you getting $9K/patient/year for Auryxia. The company said about $12K/patient/year in a recent CC ? The monthly wholesale cost of $800 is what KERX will get in revenues? Where did you get those numbers- please give link, or just copy and paste the article. Also, we really don't know how many pills the ESRD patients would need, so impossible to guage the exact revenue/patient/year from that.
After going on to the AMRN board, and looking at the weekly script #s for their drug, I noted that refills are 60% of the New Script #s . Of course this is still early on, and I expect refills will likely approach 3/4 of new script #s. If we assume the same for Auryxia, then we likely need to see around 800-900 new scripts/week, and refills of around 600/week to get Auryxia making $1 EPS/year. This assumes only $9K/patient/year as opposed to the $12K/year that the company talked of, I'm using $9K because from what I'm hearing, that seems to be what many patients will be paying for one year of pills. Also using gross margins of 82%, and similar expenses as to the Mar qtr as far as R&D & S,G,&A.
So it appears to me, we need to see at least 800 new scripts/week, for KERX to make $1 EPS/year on Auryxia,
ft- Will KERX actually get $12K/patient/year ? I'm hearing from some on this board that patients will e able to get a years worth for $9K
Sure thought the stock would get to $110- $120 before pulling back, but seems to just want to sell off every time it hits over $100. EPS should be $7.50+ in 2016, so given a 20 PE, the stock could get to $150.