Yea, but regardless of who's right, it's foolish to chase after another 3%-4%, when the stock is already down 27%.
Don't be greedy. The stock has gone down 27% since FDA approval on pure manpulation, and you want to gamble it'll go down another 3% ? By Friday, the stock could be in the $15s, regardless of how good you think your reasoning is.
What surprises me is how easily the shorts can control a stock, even when news is good. The FDA approval was good news for KERX, whether the shorts say so or not. Just blatant manipulation using the warning label as an excuse to scare the heck out of the longs.
You are the fool. Stocks go down on manipulation as often as they go down on fudamentals. You just keep thinking just because a stock goes down, means there's something wrong, and you'll be broke in no time.
bg- Do you think that all the analysts rating the stock except for FBR don't have any idea ? Here are how the five analysts listed are valuing the stock right now...
Keryx Biopharma color following FDA approval of ferric citrate (15.87 -1.14) : Shares of Keryx Biopharm (KERX) are down 8% this morning following the FDA approval of their ferric citrate (no brand name yet) on Friday. Shares experienced an eventful trading day on Friday, ahead of the expected PDUFA as shares quickly plummeted and then were halted. Shortly after, the company reported the positive ruling, but noted a restrictive label guideline from the FDA. Shares re-opened down 18% to $14.80, but rebounded and closed around $17 down 5% on the day. Analyst commentary has been all across the board this morning, here are the most noteworthy:
Maxim Group reiterated their Buy rating and $24 target noting they see additional catalysts to drive the stock over the next year, including: (1) an announcement of pricing and a new name; (2) a data presentation at the American Society for Nephrology meeting in November, with additional data presentations and publications at other upcoming scientific meetings
Mizuho reiterated their Buy rating and $30 target seeing FDA approval a big positive; the iron overload warning, is misunderstood, and actually a good thing
MLV is reiterating a Buy rating and $21 target on expected launch within 3 months and a positive that the FDA did not require any post-approval studies
Brean Capital maintained their Buy rating and $26 target noting the iron benefit is still as real as it ever was, proclaim they are not worried about the concern about the warning label, and that bundle economics will help bolster the company
On the other side of the fence, FBR downgraded shares to underperform with a $14 target noting a lack of positive catalysts to offset the commercial uncertainties.
I am. Every nephrologist I hear chime in says the warning label means little, excpet to tell doctors that if their patients are already on lV Iron, that they will need to monitor iron levels, possibly having to decrease, or completely stop taking their lV Iron. The manipulators think investors aren't to swift, and I'd have to agree based on the stock movement. Either way though, many analysts are raising their targets, with around $26 now being the average. Unreal to see this carnage to such a blockbuster drug.
What you think of posts by bglbfrd ? He's very negative on Zerenex, and says that the warning label is a real deterent. I'm no expert in the field, but he does cite info from KERX documents to back up his opinions. He also says if the FDA thought the drug could be used for patients with anemia, they would have stated that on the label. Therefore he doesn't think the drug will be used very effectively for the huge potential market of patients with early stage reneal disease with anemia. He basically thinks the drug will be a flop, taking only 10% of the market share, and only worth around $4-$5.
Is that right ?
Hard to believe the stock is only worth $13 now, when it was worth $18 before approval. The warning label has little consequence to every single nephrologist that's chimed in, so what's really going on ?
Why ? Because even if their drug is only used for CKD, I feel it still will produce $.70-$1.00 in EPS within a couple years. If those figures are right, the stock is worth $20-$30 just based on that. However what if the drug is used by those with early stage renal disease in addition ? The company will finish phase lll on that end soon enough. The market then becomes triple the revenue stream, and the potential becomes huge. My feeling is, the stock is worth a minimum of $20 right now, and could easily be worth $40+ within a year or two.