Best qtr in the last two years, and the stock is down 18% since earnings day ? Seems investors are saying they don't trust that GV will be able to sustain profitable qtrs. All this while management said in the June qtr earnings report, that they've finished all their non profitable contracts. Someone will be wrong.
trading- great questions. I too would like Nephrologycat to expand a bit. I mean if Japan got approval for Auryxia for NDD-CKD, why wouldn't it be used in patients with anemia anyway, as a high % of NDD-CKD patients have anemia. Also now with the European approval in NDD-CKD, are we too believe they too won't use it to treat the anemia in that patient group.
So I too would have to question why Japan hasn't done better with Auryxia in the NDD-CKD patient group, and why we should now expect so much better reception in Europe ?
Lastly, how big would the market in the US be for the use of Auryxia solely for the use of iron deficient anemia ? I mean if not to control the phosphate levels in NDD-CKD as well, why would patients chose the expense of Auryxia over an iron pill ?
sadi-- So far the launch for the use of Auryxia in dialysis has been dismal. Now we are all hoping that the use of Auryxia in early stage renal disease with anemia will be a hit. What about Japan ? Haven't they approved Auryxia for the use in both dialysis and early stage kidney disease for the last year or so- How well have they done ? Now we are all hopeful with the European approval, but I wonder if that won't disappoint. Then there is finally the US next year for early stage renal disease. Well I guess by then, we'll have some idea from how well Auryxia does for early stage renal disease over there. However should make us hopeful, that if it wasn't a huge hit in Japan in early stage renal disease, that it would be in Europe, or the US ? thanks,
musk- I agree, however we are talking potential at this point. I doubt investors knew that GV could be doing $33M/qtr in revenues, and posting $.09-$.10/qtr after tax. This makes it a very strong buy here at $1.80 IMO.
when they have a clean qtr. Margins look to be around 19%. I like that their fixed priced backlog is up qtr over qtr. Tax rate was 46% for the June qtr, but should be 37% for the Sept qtr. Based on past valuation, GV has a good shot at being a $5+ stock, once they show another solid qtr, with good guidence. Looking forward to the Sept qtr earnings report.
pfs- find me one other company on a major exchange that keeps increasing revenues qtr after qtr, and is increasing earnings to the tune of $.10+/qtr, that sells at a 4 PE going forward !
When GV was making $.10/qtr with the CREZ project in 2012, the margins were much higher than they are today. I believe those margins were unrealistically high. Also the tax rate was much lower then as well. Still the stock got to over a 10 PE going forward. With revenues/qtr up 50%-75% over CREZ revenues/qtr, and with lower margins and a higher tax rate, yet the company still making around $.10/qtr, I believe a higher PE is warranted. A conservative PE going forward at this point should be around 12 for the consistant revenue growth/qtr GV is showing. Therefore, IF the company can continue posting $.10/qtr(assuming normal tax rate of 37%, and excluding one time items), I believe around $5 is a conservative target.
gopp- The June qtr was much better than $.05. It was $.06 from Continuing operations, plus there was a $1.2M non repeatable charge, plus the tax rate was 46%(much higher than the normal 37%). All in all, the qtr was more like $.09 !
Hopefully they will continue that. Here's what the CEO said in the earnings PR...
John H. Sottile, President and Chief Executive Officer of Goldfield said, "We have now substantially completed our unprofitable Texas projects and have accomplished a reorganization of this operation. This will permit us to seek other projects from new and existing customers. Fortunately, our work outside Texas has remained strong. The general demand for electrical construction services is positive. Our focus is to achieve operating efficiencies, improved profit margins and to secure well qualified labor to take advantage of these opportunities."
They said they don't generally don't give it, and the only reason they gave it in preliminary Q1 & Q2, was because they wanted to assure investors that the business was still doing well, despite the supplier issues at the time.
I have been adding every single step down all day, since the open. I plan to continue to average down for as long as the sellers allow.