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Pacific Ethanol, Inc. (PEIX) Message Board

dalton880 77 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jan 26, 2003
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  • Insane wathing KERX only up 2.5% on news that they'll stave off generic competition till 2024 !

  • Biotech sector & market super weak, or KERX would be over $15 today. Super cheap to get KERX only up 3% after great patent news, that should keep generic comptetion at bay till 2024 !

  • It is totally perplexing to say the least to see a drug FDA approved, that has the kind of potential this one has, only to see the stock sell off 30% & stay down. This especially true, when the drug is in phase lll trials for use in non dialysis CKD with anemia, which could triple+ revenues from the present FDA approved application. Bottom line is, KERX could be a $40 stock in a year, and every dip should be bought !

  • dalton880 by dalton880 Sep 30, 2014 10:04 AM Flag

    No other way to play it.

  • dalton880 dalton880 Sep 29, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    He says $.57 for 2015 not inlcuding LCOS. How much do you think LCOS could add in EPS for 2015 ? thanks

  • Reply to

    Here is Webcast from Sept 9- Impressive !

    by dalton880 Sep 27, 2014 2:40 PM
    dalton880 dalton880 Sep 27, 2014 5:45 PM Flag

    It's hard to fathom that the stock is now not worth substantially more than the lows of the year ! I mean amazingly, the market is presently pricing KERXs drug at only 50% above the lows for the year, despite FDA approval. Now that's insane, especially considering that every single analyst except one has raised their targets to $26 avg. Even the lone negative analyst that says the warning label will kill sales still has a $14 target. Hopefully we've seen the end of the fall.

  • Reply to

    Here is Webcast from Sept 9- Impressive !

    by dalton880 Sep 27, 2014 2:40 PM
    dalton880 dalton880 Sep 27, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    I didn't hear anything that would suggest that the warning label will affect sales negatively in any way. In fact, anxiously looking forward to KERX getting FDA approval in 2015 for the use of the drug in non dialysis patients having early stage renal disease with anemia. That could triple+ revenues for them if successful. Bottom line is, the stock is a steal here at $13.


    I would suggest every person invested in this stock listen to this.

  • Reply to

    Why is KERX 30% less now than before approval ?

    by dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 1:49 PM
    dalton880 dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    So bg, let me get this straight. You are saying that KERXs drug in their own clinical trials, did in fact by itself, cause "iron overload " ?

  • Reply to

    Why is KERX 30% less now than before approval ?

    by dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 1:49 PM
    dalton880 dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    bg- I gues you strongly disagree with this post from Sonatduke ? increased ferritin levels do not mean iron overload.....ferritin is an acute and chronic phase inflammatory marker in these patients.....iron overload depends on iron saturation being high....when Iron saturation is high there can be end organ damage.....iron saturation does not go high with Z because of a negative feedback loop noticed for oral iron versus IV iron.....IV iron is the problem not Z and not ferritin....

  • Reply to

    Why is KERX 30% less now than before approval ?

    by dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 1:49 PM
    dalton880 dalton880 Sep 26, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    bg- I definitely am no nephrologist, nor know much about kidney disease, but from what I have read, many on this board that are knowledgable about Kidney Disease strongly disagree with your views about KERXs drug- what it does, what it doesn't do, and what's important. Neophrocat for one, and he I believe is a Nephrologist. Also another knowledable poster today strongly refuted your opinion on an earlier post that KERXs drug in and of itself caused iron overload in clinical studies. Just curious- what is your expertise on the subject of Nephrology ?

  • I still don't get it.

  • I was very impressed with the June qtr earnings report. Revenue and earnings guidence was raised, and the company says all divisions are doing well. With $.11-$.12/qtr from regular business, that alone should give the stock a $9-$10 target. However with the additoin of Google Glass, I would think the target would be much higher.

  • If in fact, not one patient in clinical trials that was on KERXs drug alone, had "iron overload", why did the FDA write it the way they did ? I mean the way the FDA wrote it, makes it look like KERXs drug "alone" can cuase iron overload. Shouldn't they in all fairness have stated that the drug in combination with other lV iron suppliments could cause it. I mean in the trial, the only patient that had his iron go too high, was the one that was on lV iron already.

  • Here is why they raised their price target to $26...

    Brean Capital Maintains Buy On Keryx Following FDA Approval on Ferric Citrate
    September 8, 2014 11:20 AM EDT by Editor Corey Williams in Analyst Insights, Healthcare
    In a research report issued today, Brean Capital analyst Jonathan Aschoff maintained a Buy rating on Keryx Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:KERX) with a price target of $26.00. The report follows and FDA approval, which was released last friday. The approval consist of ferric citrate (formerly known as Zerenex since the FDA wants a different brand name), which controls the serum phosphorus levels in CKD patients on dialysis.

    Aschoff noted, “We are not concerned by the warning for iron overload in the label, since ferric citrate alone did not show any iron overload in its trials, and we see the warning as rather for potential iron overload associated with the use of IV iron on top of ferric citrate, which makes perfect sense. Consistent with this view is the fact that nowhere does the label say that ferric citrate itself causes iron overload. Only 1 patient in all of the ferric citrate trials had elevated iron in the liver, and that patient was on both IV iron and ferric citrate.” Furthermore he notes: “We see this label as little more than a highly conservative blanket statement on the part of the FDA to cover itself. Physicians are simply advised to assess and monitor iron parameters when using ferric citrate and IV iron, and they may need to reduce the dose of, or discontinue, IV iron therapy, which is the whole point with this differentiated drug. The ferric citrate label warning is not a call to perform extra monitoring of patients, since these patients are already routinely monitored. We note that even after the FDA warned back in 1Q07 that aggressive use of ESAs to raise hemoglobin to a target of 12g/dL or higher was associated with serious and life-threatening side-effects and/or death, ESAs were still used off label for dialysis and that u

  • If anyone on this board has watched KERX, you know the stock can be volatile. In the last 2 weeks or so, the stock has been massively manipulated. Today might be the last day to get this under $13, and I would take the opportunity to load up. I surely have been doing just that.

  • dalton880 dalton880 Sep 23, 2014 10:48 PM Flag

    Thanks, no chance of a margin call. However I have much more money to put into the stock should it keep falling. Thing is, I rarely see this kind of action, and in fact the downtrend is so relentless, it reminds me of the attacks on the China frauds in 2011. However they were truely fraudulent companies, while KERX is a real US company with a new drug which was just FDA approved !

  • dalton880 dalton880 Sep 23, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    Yea, I couldn't take it anymore, but then I picked myself up by my boot straps, and said to myself- don't let those scuzy con artist shorts scare you out of your shares. They might knock the stock down to $11 or less, and for all we know they're naked shorting, but just keep buying. They will pull every trick in the book to get this stock down to $11, then $10, $9, who knows. However one day in the not too distant future, when the shorts decide to not be too greedy, or the big boys step up, or the company themselves prove with blockbsuter sales of this drug, there will be a rally into the $20s or higher.

    Bottom line, every dollar lower the manipulators takes this stock, is a dollar more for the savvy investor to make on the way back up. The main thing is to understand is that the attacks about the label warning, the NCE status, the negative articles, etc. are nonsense. These are sophisticated orchestrated attempts by a bunch of con artists with bucks to scare you.

    We know from numerous nephrologists chiming in, that the warning label is benign, and that the drugs ability to raise iron levels is a benefit, as patients on lV iron regiments may well be able to get off them while taking the drug. Also we know that the company doesn't need NCE status for the drug to protect them from generics coming soon, as KERXs patents protect them from generic competion for may years anyway. Lastly we know there's a huge new market of early stage renal disease patients with anemia that could triple or more the revenues from KERXs new drug, for exactly what the warning label suggests- the ability to raise iron storage levels.

    Yes I'm frustrated- but not scared, and I suggest every single long reading this post just keep buying. Is it possible that KERX won't do that well with the drug ? Yes. However at $12-$13, I am sure willing to wait and see, as by the time we know KERXs drug is as good as I think, the stock will be double where it's at today.

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