Well, my stop got hit the day of earnings at $4.87 - it was part of my trailing stop strategy, it was the last defense against emotional trading - I believe in letting winners ride, but in doing so requires a wide stop - so I gave back a ton of money, but I also made a ton of money - so I didn't really lose anything other than some paper profits. I do think as a technician I let myself get away from basics, I recognized a bearish divergence in price action as well as any of my favorite indicators I put up - I rationalized it as that can happen in a strongly trending market and not mean anything, guess I was wrong. I do still strongly believe in this company and believe that perhaps price action got a little ahead of fundamentals - which is to say once this baby has bottomed - I think there will be great growth in '14 as Obamacare for instance is proving to attract many more people than initially thought and Flu season it seems will really rip this month as the scares are already in the news about ultra deadly strains coming out of China. But for now - I took all my profits and piled them into DRYS and CLF and the Santa rally has been kind to me thus far - looking forward to the January effect - and hopefully at some point let the technicals direct me back into RAD when she's ready to start going back up again. I do hope for you guys and although the I don't agree with the Bashers, I don't agree with the pumpers either at this point - I think the truth is somewhere in the middle - already MACD has crossed over negative, which isn't good, I wouldn't be a buyer again unless she came back above into positive territory - but all signs I think point to this ship sinking for a while more, I wouldn't worry - PSUN Pacific Sunware is a big pos compared to RAD and she had a similar earnings report where management pumped it up, analysts said congratulations and then she tanked. But 3 or so months later she bottomed and starting a climb back up.
Dude, the MACD is crossing into negative territory - this ship is sinking. I didn't want to think it was so, but it turned out this way. Better to take your profits and wait for it to go down and buy back cheaper - it's not that she's in a bear market, it's just self-correcting to a new level that reflects the funamentals - it just isn't worth $6 today, it isn't worth $5 either. Get over it.
Listen, the majority of us probably had trailing stop sell orders to protect profits - I did. The fundamentals are still good for this company, so please just let us find the new entry price into this company, because once she's settled, wherever that may be, she'll begin her climb back up. I think $3.80 is the first Fibonacci retracement, then there is the 50% rule that would bring her down close to $3.00. Do you truly think this company is going backwards now? The stock price got a little ahead of itself - I think the 'bumps' in the road sometimes all converge at one point in time radomly. We'll get through this period and then it will grow again in '14 after she's bottomed.
I am looking where the P/E ratio is 15X trailing twelve month earnings. I think she'll settle near the 200 day moving average. The thing is Ace, this still isn't a downtrend in this stock - she just got way ahead of itself according to the latest financials - she'll settle back down where Wallstreet thinks she should be, and then it will begin it's steady climb back up again. What management has done to turn this company around has worked and will continue to work, albeit at a slower pace than most of us thought. But that's ok - I made a fortune on this stock and will look to get back in again at a lower price.
I was long, but I had a strategic sell stop placed nearly a month ago to trail profits and it got hit - simple as that. I still think this stock is going up long term, but I am going to wait for the correction - evidently the street is punishing it with a lower P/E ratio. I am assuming $0.24/share earnings for fiscal '14 and a P/E ratio of 15 which brings it to $3.60. That's where I will look to buy back in.
Technology stocks for some reason get different treatment - they sometimes don't even need earnings or flat out losing money and they get bounced up - it's depressing today.
Do a fibonacci retracement of .382 from the recent high of $6.15 - it brings you down to $3.80 filling that gap from $3.79 on Sept. 18. God - the gap idiots are going to come out in droves they were right - how depressing.
I wouldn#$%$ hard to catch a falling dagger. There is no honor in holding a losing position - I got stopped out today as well - it's called good trading, holding onto your gains before they totally evaporate. This ship has far to sink - the big hedge funds can't own her anymore, so they'll be dumping that is further downward pressure. I hate to say it but I think Ace's targets are spot on at this point. I am looking for her to hit the 200 day moving average around $3.50-$3.60 before getting back in.
LOL - I am happy with the profits I made - I set a stop almost a month ago @ $4.87 and none of the conditions of revising that trailing stop upwards ever came about. So I made a bundle - I am out and now I will wait to get back in at a better price when I think she's stopped falling down.
It's my experience once things break down like this, especially break below a trendline and the 50 day moving average that the 200 day moving average is the next level down.
Well, look at this way - on the whole we had a good report that somehow the street and certain bashers here have spun as negative. Wall street would rather a company go on a mad marketing campaign and spend millions doing so and show a higher revenue for it. But the reality is that marketing is a costly way of increasing business. Mining past customers for more loyalty yields better margins albeit a slower growth rate overall in sales. It's less sexy. You hear that one analyst - he's looking for an increase in store remodeling, he wants profits yesterday - and they're playing it safe.
I don't really know - I do know that it would be premature to act now. On a one year chart it's just a blip really. I am going to watch this stock as the Santa rally starts next week and the January effect and keep tabs on the flu. I'm sure they used the slightly lowered earnings expectations as a reason to take profits. Personally, I prefer they mitigate expectations and then get a pleasant surprise in the 4th quarter once the flu starts ramping up. Competitive atmosphere is going to let up at some point and the continued progress of the renovations will take more and more effect over the course of the next year. Not a traders dream come true - more like an investors game at this point.