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Inergy, L.P. Message Board

danbrady 783 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM Member since: Jul 29, 1999
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  • Reply to

    None so blind as those who can't see

    by rogere1946 Apr 10, 2014 3:39 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 23, 2014 11:35 AM Flag

    Stop. Just stop.

    We (the nice, rich 1st world countries) DIDN'T GET WHERE WE ARE AT BY TAX AND REDISTRIBUTION. THAT CAME LATER, and it is a risk to destroy what you admire, not a part of what makes what you admire great.

    History says that cultures that promote the greatest amount of individual liberties, ones that allow rewards for entrepreneurship, ones that remain healthy from the risk of failure (on both the personal and business level) flourish. All boats rise begin caught up in vigor.

    History also says that the continual creep and bloat of government and regulatory excess acts as a cancer. Asking the cancer to be a source of a cure for itself is rather short sighted.

    You quote the eco-system as a model that must be respected, well trust me you, I, certainly politicians are not near enough omnipresent enough to successfully throw levels on our country's economic ecosystem, so let's just back off the centrally planned actions, okay? Ecosystems work best when they are left alone to be free, rich and diverse, not myopically forced.

  • Reply to

    What happened?

    by robertsdrummond Jun 11, 2014 4:26 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 11, 2014 5:04 PM Flag

    Zack's notes on MDA crossovers are pretty much computer generated. It did occur just prior to June. The word "could" is weak in acknowledging that the 50 under 200 as an indicator works more than 50% of the time, but certainly doesn't work anywhere near 100% of the time.

  • Reply to

    question about shorts, or puts

    by drfishstick Jun 11, 2014 10:51 AM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 11, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    They are different. When you short, you actually sell shares you don't own. (Supposedly, you "borrow" them from others at the same brokerage). You actually get a pile of money in your account at the time you short; and you can "use" that money to do other things, as long as your entire account value doesn't fall to a level where you start worrying the brokerage. You close the short at some point in the future by buying the shares back; or by just dancing a jig if the company goes under and the share price goes to $0.

    A put is an option trade. The owner of a "put" has the right to sell shares at a predetermine price. You can sell puts (and assume the risk of paying that price for someone's shares if the share price plummets), or you can be a buyer of puts (and therefore purchase protection of loss mitigation of shares you hold should the share price plummet). Puts never actually have to be closed out with a counter order (unlike how a buy cancels a short), have time limits associated with them (shorts can run forever, in theory), and trade for small fractions of the actual leverage (shorts, like buys, trade 1:1 with the share price).

    Sometimes those who short will end up also buying protection for their short positions, but I think those would be calls, which would give them a maximum price to buy shares at should their bet on a falling price go awry. But the volumes wouldn't match much at all, and I doubt a large percentage of shorter also work the options.

    The options market has to have both sides show up for betting: somebody has to sell puts/calls for others to buy. If their isn't some certainty for the sellers, or perceived risk for the buyers, there just isn't much action.

  • danbrady danbrady Jun 10, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    Thanks for the link, I'll look into it!

    Oh. You're not a bot? Those, I can at least understand. For pennies, you can spam thousands of board for you product. The "this pos sux!" crowd is mainly (I suspect) the day-traders-school-for-idiots crowd, doing their best to aid their $5 position. Between the two groups, they account for almost all of the traffic. So I guess that ends up with the bots trying to sway the daytraders; as the bots don't actually read the daytrader's posts...

  • Reply to

    Sell High, Buy Low

    by goldoking7777 Jun 9, 2014 4:31 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 9, 2014 5:18 PM Flag

    ??? $2.97 was last seen on 5/27. You have to go back to 2007 or 2008 to find ANV at $2.97, and even then only briefly. So if I read you right, you're suggesting holders of duration of 7 days or less be content with their profits and get out within a week's sight of multi-year lows, cause to do otherwise would be "greedy".

    Thanks for the advice.

  • Reply to

    question for news guy

    by cummingbass Jun 5, 2014 12:47 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 6, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    Your eyes see that the Central Banks of the world have been massively printing money, your wallet feels inflation, but your ears hear the great evil we must avoid is deflation.

    Cool thing about (price) inflation: it happens and you can't hide it. Where money blossoms, and where the number of goods to spend it on remains relatively unchanged, you will get higher prices. So simply detecting *where* higher prices are occurring is a back door way to understanding where the money is flowing.

    The old adage is that "newly minted" money is typically gifted to those at the top. And if you look, you will find plenty of stories about the insane wretched excess by the wealthy. There have been a flurry of stories about "record prices" being paid for homes in the Hamptons, flat in Manhatten, modern art at auctions, collectible cars, an hour with some football has-been. People who you would expect to be 'near the spigot' are spending and competing with each other.

    A second major tell-tale for inflation is what is happening in the "emerging marktes". Much of the money that the banks feel compelled to invest flows overseas into the relatively tiny investing opportunities elsewhere. Where it proceeds to wreck havoc on the cost of labor/goods/services. A huge deal of the social unrest that has occurred in the middle east, southern asia and africa can be directly attributed to spill-over money from the Western QE experiment. Look for the cost of good imported from those locations to rise, and show up in higher prices of good and Walmat knicnacs here.

  • Reply to

    question for news guy

    by cummingbass Jun 5, 2014 12:47 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 6, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    cb - You're doing fine, and things aren't upside down. You know that. The feeling of dislocation comes from being told one thing while observing something entirely different. My suggestion: put the world on "mute", stop listening, and just keep observing. Things make plenty of sense without the audio track.

    "Will cash flow from the EU to the US?" Undoubtedly. In many respects, it has been all along. Back in the 1700s, Sir Issac Newton concocted the "Gold Standard" to be used by a collection of friendly European powers. They'd been having funding issues and wanted to straighten things out. His proposed (and adopted) gold standard had a 40% reserve requirement! This essentially meant that the club members partaking in the Standard were suddenly allowed to spend 60% more, across the globe, than they actually had in bullion. Sweet deal for the club members.

    With the addition of the US in later centuries, the "club" still exists and still pretty much continues to abuse their privileges. The Western world Central Banks all "take care" of each other. (If you've ever wondered who the big buyers of sovereign debt are, whether US Treasuries or Greek bonds, you need look no farther than the club of Central Banks). They print, inflate, hold each other's currencies and debt in what looks to be reasonable balance, with the dual purpose of allowing their host governments to blissfully overspend, and themselves to maintain positions of extreme power.

    Who audits the Central Banks? Answer: themselves. What media outlet cries "foul!" when Belgium recently stepped up and soaked up a few hundred billion in USTreasuries, and amount that represents *multiples* of Belgium's GDP? Answer: No one, other than those loony blog sites on the Internet. What media outlet cried "foul!" when it was learn that the Fed's actions during the TARP days didn't limit themselves to $750B as advertised, but actually were over $12T, much of which involved money to foreign banks?

  • Reply to

    question for news guy

    by cummingbass Jun 5, 2014 12:47 PM
    danbrady danbrady Jun 5, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    I don't think so. The rate in question is the "deposit facility rate", which applies for deposits at the ECB from member banks. Setting it negative essentially beats the money out of the bushes and forces the banks to (maybe) start lending. I'd think they'd look at the risk of lending, vs the sure thing of dog piling into the euphoric markets, and would instead just start gambling in the market rather than lend.

    Individual depositors (the likes of you and me) just continue to get hosed by 0% returns, and an annual loss of x% due to inflation. The usual pilfering will continue.

    The real question (I think) is what are the unintended consequences of NIRP on European money markets? You'd think NIRP would be a stake thru the heart for them, and as we saw in 2008, money markets are vital to the day-to-day funding aspects of many many corporations.

  • danbrady danbrady May 15, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    The answer to this question is left as an exercise for the student. Read. Company web site, google analayst reports. It's all there in black and white, and if you are serious about your money, you'll DOYDD, rather than ask an ad-based msg board for insight.

  • Reply to

    Bargain hunting continues

    by rxbond Apr 23, 2014 2:05 PM
    danbrady danbrady Apr 23, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    Certainly looks like some anticipation of the by-now-routine monthly options-ex shenanigans...

  • It's been said that when big players want to establish a sizable position, the first action is often to sell, hard, and "soften" the price. Last few days, today in particular, really seem to point to some major money wanting to buy at a discount. They'll be our friends in the long run, if we can just hold thru the process of them getting comfy....

  • danbrady by danbrady Mar 18, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    Div: $0.0728 5.4% yield annualized (against PPS), only 4.9% against a $5.94 NAV. And apparently the new policy is to withhold div announcements until 2 weeks prior to payout.

    Lovely. /sarc

  • danbrady danbrady Mar 17, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    I can find *no* credible source claiming that voters were coerced, or brought in by soldiers. I find massive numbers of sources reporting that a landslide of voluntary voters opted to leave a state that in no way represented their heritage or interests.

    If the facts are there to support whispered allegations of a rigged election, then that has bearing. But the opposite holds true as well; if the vote was by the people and sincere, then what business has the West in telling those voters that the West knows better and will intervene on the behalf of people who DON'T WANT intervention?

  • danbrady danbrady Mar 17, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    I approve of the "complete joke". When a mass of people demand a vote, take a vote, have 79% turnout for that vote, and vote with over a 90% margin to do something, I think they should be allowed to do what they want.

    We have no business telling those voters that they don't know what they are doing, are siding with the wrong side, that their free and fair election won't be recognized, etc etc etc. If the US has egg on its face, and the best way to back out of a stupid stance is to mumble something about sanctions on a handful of Russians, I approve. Especially if the alternative involves military intervention in an area of the world that should be none of our business.

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by quailrunrd Mar 11, 2014 2:32 PM
    danbrady danbrady Mar 12, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Selling shares is sometimes dictated by life needs: purchase of a house, college funding for the kids, etc. This is particularly true of high level employees who are often paid in shares rather than income; they will "dump" shares periodically for simple financial needs, not necessarily as an indication of expectations.

  • Reply to

    Anyone want to venture a guess

    by doctorj2222 Feb 3, 2014 11:12 AM
    danbrady danbrady Feb 11, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    .... answer: 2/11/14. Seven trading days from your post on the 3rd, au @ $1,290.

  • danbrady danbrady Feb 4, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    fwiw, they're not mutually exclusive...

  • Reply to

    closed end fund

    by bigqluvr Nov 16, 2013 5:51 AM
    danbrady danbrady Nov 18, 2013 1:18 PM Flag

    Being a "closed end fund" just means that new shares are not created/destroyed as a consequence of daily purchases/redemptions, as would occur with a mutual fund, where the only seller/buyer is the fund itself. For CEFs, you can sell/buy on the market. This doesn't prohibit the fund itself from being a seller/buyer of fund shares; only the small print in the fund prospectus/objectives would bear on that. Many CEFs that I know of buy/sell their own shares on an ongoing basis, a few only issue new shares in announced large blocks, fewer still just run with the initial shares offered.

    Whether doing so in an ongoing fashion is above-board and honest, or in some fashion deceptive, is in the eye of the individual; the market certainly doesn't seem to penalize CEFs that *routinely* issue new shares (see symbol PGP as an example).

    The 5.4m shares that you noted were sold in 2013 were sold at prices "above NAV". So net of commissions and expenses, from the sale they were able to obtain cash to purchase raw holdings for more than N shares by just creating and selling N shares. This has both pluses and minuses for existing shareholders, but generally improves their position at the expense of the new purchasers, who are paying higher than NAV. Should the right market conditions present themselves, the fund could conceivably make out by *buying* funds shares on the market for *less* than NAV.

  • danbrady danbrady Nov 13, 2013 1:56 PM Flag

    Possibilities: 1) One is in error. Probably not, as you can see this day after day. 2) The two sources use different "start" and "stop" times. Could be this as old time systems may still report based on the London AM/PM fixes, others use the COMEX/NYMEX hours (trading days officially end at 1:15 EST in the afternoon, even though the electronic trading continues unabated). 3) One of your two quotes could be the 1st month's futures price, while the other is current spot. (I think I've notice one of the two networks reporting *both* prices, one in the scrolling ticker, and one in a set of flip boxes).

    But really; doest it matter? When you're waiting on multi-hundred dollar moves, a few bucks offset here or there is a nit. ;)

  • Reply to

    Price fluctuation

    by robertsdrummond Nov 11, 2013 7:05 PM
    danbrady danbrady Nov 12, 2013 11:00 AM Flag

    You want fruit to fall out of a tree, it takes a shaking.

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