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Provident Energy Ltd. Message Board

danbrady 1 post  |  Last Activity: Feb 23, 2015 1:01 PM Member since: Jul 29, 1999
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    Yay ! another divy upcoming

    by maddooggg Feb 11, 2015 2:49 PM
    danbrady danbrady Feb 23, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Do a 5yr chart of FAX vs the dollar (I use UUP as a chartable proxy for the USD).

    While it isn't a 1:1 inverse, by and large when the USD gets strong, FAX has price issues. (The rational for this escapes me; FAX doesn't have currency conversion issues with its distribution).

    The relationship is pretty true everywhere except the summer of 2013, when FAX took a major multi-month dumping at the same time as a modest drop in the USD. My suspicion is that FAX was then being used as a money market surrogate for big trading money (hedge funds, private equity). And the rumors of a pending crash (not just a decline) in the $USD rose to the point where a lot of money tried to exit FAX at once, and the reputation of FAX among the big money player took a serious hit from which it is still trying to recover.

    The $USD weakness did sort of materialize (see the protracted weakish bowl trough starting in summer 2013 and running to a low in the summer of 2015), but there are forces at play that seem to insist the dollar cannot be allowed serious declines at times, and the anticipated crash never happened.

    Given the current cliff teetering of the EUR, the main counter-component in USD valuation, we may not see new USD weekness until some serious crises arises that is so bad the safe haven gets black and blue too. The only good news on FAX is that the dividend holds constant, so if you are re-investing at least new shares accumulate at about an 8% annualized rate.