Gartman? You're kidding.
"... the Gartman ETF, named after advisor Dennis Gartman, ubiquitous author of the Gartman Letter, an investment advisory, couldn’t harness the benefits of its fortunate timing. The fund went public at $10 a share. Those same shares now fetch around $7.90."
His fund closed in March of this year.
"In short, when launched, the Gartman ETF was a bad product run by someone with no record, who ultimately couldn’t overcome the headwinds inherent in a closed-end fund. Investors should have been more wary."
Sound like somebody CNBC would label a Gold Guru. guffaw.
I wish I could get rich telling peeps that the price isn't going up, so don't buy, or that it is down, so don't buy.
My only other action would, I guess, be to tell them to "buy" after a nice run up, where the obvious spot-on incisive vision of my recommendation would be apparent to all.
I was under the mistaken impression that no one, not one single person, actually paid attention to upgrades/downgrades anymore. I forgot the HFT bots, I guess...
I own a pretty good spread of miners; quality, and pretty speculative stuff. This bounce is mainly the junk; all of my holdings that I have actual faith in are tanking today. MUX is in that group.
I suspect that my spec stuff is held by small individuals, like me. My quality stuff is/was being held by both individuals and larger institutional players. I think those large players might be stepping out of the game, having been burned. Many can't afford to have serious non-performers on their quarterly report of holdings; looks like they're not managing their money well.
So the massive drop was from all of the heinous hot money exiting all at once; the follow-on drop is from funds getting the news a day late and deciding to sidle towards the door. This is what we have to deal with; it is brought to you by the lax regulation and Fed flood of money at the top.
I have fingers crossed that it is transitory; I'm not sure a bunch of the miners can even stay in biz at these price levels. I'm also not sure that this down draft is finished. CME raised their margins last night, and although this event was exacerbated by the JPY hijinks and the unwinding of a lot of carry trade, the original takedown smells like it was done to rescue one or more big bullion players.
The beatings may continue until those players are out of the fire, and why not also do so at great profit and provided the gov sanctioned msg of "stay out of bullion" at the same time...
There are reports that the London and Moscow branches of the larger Cyprus banks remained open throughout this crisis, and since capital controls weren't enacted (what was the need? the cyprus branches were closed), it looks likely that most of the major depositors got their money out. Entirely. Much of it has been moved to Switzerland in the last week.
Then again, it was never about the money. The EU heads are pushing (hard) for Federalization, where a central authority calls the shots in each and every country. Cyprus just served as an object lesson for all other EU states as to how it is going to be. Oddly enough, the German parliament will later on have to ratify what is going on in Cyprus, but the Cypriot parliament's approval will not be necessary.
As for gold, it might be time to start looking to it as a lagging rather than a leading indicator; sure to win at some point, but stop thinking it will lead the way. The world's financial smoke detectors have all had their batteries removed, and they will not be replaced upon pain of death...
The "price" for the $2.5 calls is $4.10 as I type. So the break even off the cuff is if the price is greater than $6.60; stays under that then the calls are never worth directly exercising. The pricing of them could make him a profit even if that doesn't happen, as options are often bought/sold many times well before they get to expiration; what people will pay to obtain or cover to close an open position moves pretty strongly over time.
The other factor is that seller of the calls has access to money from selling them, right now, and they can "work" that money in coming days to offset their risk. And too, the seller may just be looking to buy their calls back this evening near market close on the assumption that the noon time pricing was a little too exuberant.
When thinking about options, you have to *not* think like an equity holder; time frames are very short, scalping for pennies is the norm, and leverage is the order of the day...
One more point. Remember the Sherlock Holmes story where the dog *didn't* bark, and that was significant? Well, have you notice that the US, champion protector of the rule of law, liberty, democracy and rights of the individual, has been almost mute in regard to the outrageous behavior of the EU/IMF in Cyprus...?
Methinks they don't protest at all.
With all due respect, the market should be freaking out over cyprus. One of the largest western powers just sent a message to plebs all over the planet: what you think is yours is actually ours, and we will break laws and contracts at the drop of a hate to keep us and ours in power. Furthermore, countries like Spain and New Zealand are waking up to the fact that similar moves are being contemplated there as well, as evidenced by recent changes to their laws. Changes that took place *prior* to this mess in cyprus. If they aren't getting edgy, they're brain dead.
The true impact of cyprus will be evident in coming weeks, when their banks attempt to open, and are instantly drained by freaked out customers. And if there isn't a similar reaction in other member states of the EU, by citizens who are looking at the same idiots who tried to do this in cyprus, it will be a miracle. We will be lucky if the contagion does not spread here.
It would be hard to design a series of missteps that would result in the collapse of world banking systems that would be as effective as what the EU/IMF bone-heads have given us. Almost makes me wonder if that wasn't their goal all along...
The World Bank is by and large a Western power dominated lender to banana republics, and historically the loans have been used as carrots to get the borrowers to do as desired. It has an enforcement arm, but it involves itself with policing (or pretending to police) World bank loan situations.
This is not much different from most 'regulators' today, who mainly exist as captured protective bodies for those being regulated. But in any case, it would be highly unusual for the World Bank to be investigating anyone other than themselves...
Stomach is uneasy. Every day. Feels like big boulders are rolling around behind the nearby hills, and I can't tell what is or isn't going to be the theme this year. The number of yammering heads proclaiming all is good and okay and time to dive in is scary.
Euroland collapse and bank run contagion are possible; hard to judge how probable. If things there roll over, we may see flight to safety *into* US paper. We might also see massed forced liquidation of leverage positions ala 2008.
I'm shifting my PTTRX holding over to a simple money market fund, for a bit. The risk of something serious seems high, and the reward of small dividends and a hope of flight to our glue factory horse just doesn't seem worth it at present. Will of course have to cross fingers that MMKT fund doesn't break buck, but in terms of my plan's available alternatives, I'm trapped.
The FDIC insurance (which coverage amount was recently lowered back to the $100k cap from the higher cap put in place during the "crisis") only covers our butts if a bank fails. A number of countries in the EU have a similar depositor insurance system. The punch line is that by levying a "tax" on depositors, the banks weren't actually failing, so the insurance would be useless anyway.
As for this never happening in the US, you do understand that the fine print on your (and my) bank accounts pretty much states that what we deposit in our accounts IS A LOAN TO THE BANK, and as with any lender, there is always a risk on not getting your money back. Especially if you look into the details of Fractional Reserve Lending, which pretty much guarantees that not a bank in the country actually has enough money available to give back to depositors. It's gone, either as loans or investments for the bank. About 3% is left to deal with the few who want cash.
And finally,, you do also understand that the Cyprus debacle was pushed by the EU, ECB, and the IMF. Two of those organizations sleep nightly with our Fed, and the last is a Washington DC US policy arm. Think of all of the "tax the rich" rhetoric you've heard, and then tell me you really don't see the jerks here at home not trying at one time or another to institute a similar "wealth tax". It might go after deposits, it might just dent everyone's IRAs and 401ks, but the number of trial balloons being floated here for a similar move are on the rise. Wouldn't shock me in the least to find that pressure here at home pushed for doing what was done to the Cypriots, just to see it in a live fire exercise but not in our own country first...
Excellent point. Might as well send in B52s and carpet bomb a grade-school because a theft was chased into it. Justice should not wipe out innocents in pursuit of guilty. On top of that, the EU/IMF actions were not meant to stick it to criminals, these clowns seem hell bent on tipping over dominoes by destroying all confidence in the banking system.
I guess that's one way to break up the EU; kind of like manufacturing an issue with a girlfriend you've decided to leave.
Same kind of didn't-think-it-through thinking is what is behind the 1% hate mongering. No consideration at all for *how* people come by money, just stirred up hatred and loathing for any that have it.
And we have a winner. What a world when MaxPain is the "fundamental" that matters most...
Business school 101 for CFOs: if your P/E is 50, sell shares, because the market is stoopid and is overpricing you. If your P/E is 5, borrow and buy your shares back, because you are silly undervalued by the market.
Current P/E is 34 and some change....
Secondary offerings are dilutive to existing shareholders. If you owned x% of PBA, after the offering, you will own less than x%. Earnings are now divided among more shares, not the same. If the money is being used to acquire or build new profitable assets, then that may offset the smaller piece of the pie.
However, If the money goes to pay down prior borrowing, isn't that just indicative of a company that can't (and could not) afford the payments they'd agreed to in the past? So they effectively borrowed in the past knowing full well they would need to dilute in the future to pay it off?
moses - We tend to think that it will be the people at large who finally wake up and lose faith in fiat. I worry that the creeps that have wrecked our world know full well what is coming, and intend to create, manage and come out on top of the entire shift-to-a-new solution process. Begin by creating a crisis of hyperinflation, then emergency measures to wipe out all outstanding debt, then they put forward a "gold standard" to ensure we're safe in the future. Only they will have managed to gather in almost all of the gold, and will run it in a fractional reserve system, with ownership likely restricted to sovereign nations (and their ruling elites) as a matter of practicality.
Throwing down one set of tyrants does no good if their masters stand ready in the wings to step in and save one and all from a horrible thing like currency collapse.
a) it isn't a stock, it is a fund that holds natural resource stocks and writes covered call options against the holdings.
b) if you think about such funds, they do *best* when there is froth in the sector they work, but not
break-outs. Lots of others may then buy the covered calls, pay nice prices for them, but have them expire worthless. (So GGN just keeps both their base securities plus all of the money from selling the calls).
c) if the sector is boring, say in year 2 of an interminable consolidation pattern, then the prices paid for the calls are small, and the spreads are tight. A fund such as GGN isn't paid nearly so much for their risk, and as the hope dies that the sector will ever do anything, they become more and more at risk for a.....
d) *breakout*. When the sector finally starts running up again, it is possible that many of the covered calls get exercised. GGN gets pushed out of positions (at a profit), but it is going to cost them well more than that profit to *reestablish* new positions.
So a covered call fund performs differently in different types of market conditions. Breakouts are times of danger, and do not necessarily translate to good times for the fund. Our best times are when it seems like there might be a pop any day now, but it never shows up.
This is what is known as a short squeeze. Mid to small-tier Bad Boys have been very bad, and have sold a bunch a stuff they didn't own. Doing so trashed the neighborhood, and caused a few of the major real estate holders to cough up their holdings, which was the bad boys whole point, cause then they could buy back what they sold for cheaper than what they sold it.
Remember when ur mom would tell you "be careful who you hang out with?"
Our bad boys hang in clubs, and they follow a few big mafia-don type whales. Trashing neighborhoods is always so much more effective when they do it together. But the whales play their own game too, and sometimes that game involves suckering bad boys into trashing actions, while they surreptitiously are backing away from their own mega short positions.
When all the bad boys are comfy and holding the bag, the whales go long, and laff their butts off at the carnage, while making big bux in the options market.
Short squeeze. Remember it. Remember what it looks like. This is *not* the masses suddenly discovering the hidden gem in PM stocks and piling in. This is just local gang warfare, and the big guys reinforcing who the top dog is.
Oh wait. Don't. My order filled about an hour ago while I was at lunch. I don't need you to turn ur head & cough after all.
We teeny fish need to stick together, on a reef run by sharks. At $0.125 per share divy per quarter, 1k shares will net you 31.5 new shares in 14 months, assuming the price is dumb enough to stay @ current levels. Or $525 in BenBux if you prefer cash.
Maybe you'd consider holding, assuming the therapist fees are within reason....?