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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

daninfw04 239 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Upward Revisions

    by judandowell May 8, 2015 10:11 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 12, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    They actually lowered EPS expect and raised revenue expect. This is a gift at this price. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's A Gift

    by daninfw04 May 12, 2015 9:55 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 12, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    I need to buy back just another 50,000 shares to get back to 220,000 shares again. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    It's A Gift

    by daninfw04 May 12, 2015 9:55 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 12, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    That's another order placed by me for 30,000 at $6.18......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 12, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    Just replaced another 17,842 shares at $6.215-$6.219 that I sold in $6.80's.........

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    I should have elaborated more. At current price I see $8 as the low and $10.50 the ST high/low. Really just a marginal difference in favor of waiting. IMVHO the only way we see $12 is after major surgery. The patient is dying. Nobody in their right mind would pay $12 now based on issues. I see massive write gowns sooner or later. The only way you fix is to eliminate underperforming stores. If you research Gabellii he has cut bait many times.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    New Thoughts

    by daninfw04 May 11, 2015 11:13 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    I annualized the CFO projected possible 10% of revenues of digital and mobile by year end. That means a possible $6 million in Q4. I projected $4.4 million in Q4 as they should ramp up and probably $5 million + in Q3 if they stay on track. Another big question is what is the plan for $50 million in cash as of 3-31-15 which will be at least $60 million by 6-30-15? Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    PBY could pop because of Gabelli propping up the price but I prefer to wait till at least mid-8"s. More downside than upside IMVHO. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 11, 2015 11:13 AM Flag

    The three analysts that follow EVC lowered consensus estimates from 7 to 6 cents on Friday. They are projecting$61.846 in revenue which is low. Here's why. Last year broadcast was $43.151 and at 15% down would be $36.678 million, radio was $18.695 last year and this year at 18% up would be $22.060 million. What they really missed which I finally caught because CFO didn't correct Howard......they will do better than $2.5 million+ in digital and mobile. Howard made the statement that they did $2.5 million last year which was incorrect. They never reported dollars till Q3 last year. They did $3.7 million last quarter with Pulpo. They have already said they expect Pulpo to do high teens this year. That's $18-19 million. The CFO also said they had a shot at 10% of total revenues in 2015 and goal was 20% next few years. The expect is for $242.59 million this year. That would give digital and mobile $24.259 million in 2015 after only doing $3.7 million in Q1. Therefore, no way they are going to do less in Q2, so we should see $4.4 million in digital and mobile in Q4 just based on Q1. They also said re-trans would be up in 2015. That means at least $6.7 million in Q2 which is $400 K more than Q1. I get $63.538 million revenue in Q2.......a net 2-3% revenue gain. The CFO should have corrected Howard which again caused lowered Q2 EPS expect. Management at EVC keep shooting themselves in the foot. The good news it sets up a revenue and EPS beat in Q2. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 11, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    Hodges just filed that they added another 272,205 EVC shares in Q1. They are also the second largest holder of USCR and were buying USCR like crazy below $10 a share.......which is now $39+ a share. These guys are smart. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 May 11, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    The company has already been put up for sale and the last buyer about 18 months ago or so paid $50 million to cancel the deal. They saw something. The company is for sale right now. They would sale in a New York Minute for $12 a share.....Gabelli might implement the three stage plan I proposed years ago. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 May 10, 2015 10:09 AM Flag

    Yahoo finally fixed their profile issues which they are changing and now I can use my DaninFW ID again. I thought the idiots would drop it again. Just wanted to add that the interest expense in Q1 was $3.227 million down from $3.438 million last year. Remember the basher that constantly harped on EVC's interest expense going up in 2015? Well, it continues to drop. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Here's from the recent 10Q. Looks like the sellers projected rapid growth and EVC paid $1 million in Q1 of a possible $3 million performance payout. Pulpo made the numbers in 2014 but looks like only $300K of a possible $2 million will only be paid for 2015 and 2016. Another bad buy and albatross. They did $3.7 million inQ1 and projected less than $3.0 million in Q2. These guys need to close shop and sell the spectrum. Here's the excerpt:
    "The acquisition of Pulpo includes a contingent consideration arrangement that requires additional consideration to be paid by the Company to Pulpo if certain annual performance benchmarks are achieved over a three-year period. Any such additional consideration is payable 90 days after each fiscal year end beginning December 31, 2014. The range of the total undiscounted amounts the Company could pay under the contingent consideration agreement over the three-year period is between $0 and $3.0 million. Performance targets were achieved for the year ended December 31, 2014, and, accordingly, a payment of $1.0 million was made to the sellers in the first quarter of 2015. As of December 31, 2014, the Company determined Pulpo is less likely to earn the full amount of the contingent consideration for the years 2015 and 2016. Therefore, the Company adjusted the fair value of the contingent consideration in the fourth quarter of 2014 to $1.3 million. As of March 31, 2015, subsequent to the contingent consideration payment related to the year ended December 31, 2014, the fair value of the contingent consideration for the years 2015 and 2016 is $0.3 million." DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    West Face

    by daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 5:53 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 5:55 PM Flag

    I would add this is 6.76% of outstanding shares. I suspect they have added substantially. When they file by 5-15-15 they don't have to disclose anything bought from 4-01-15 to 5-15-15 unless they went over 10%. In that case they must file within 2-3 days. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 5:53 PM Flag

    I just read the just filed proxy for annual meeting and discovered something I missed. West Face actually controls 4,292,959 EVC shares as of 2-17-15. The stock is actually owned by two entities:
    "Based on the most recently available Schedule 13G joint filed by West Face Capital Inc. (“West Face”) and Gregory A. Boland with the SEC on February 17, 2015. West Face and Mr. Boland beneficially owned 4,292,959 shares of Class A common stock, with shared voting power and shared dispositive power over all of such shares. West Face serves as investment manager to West Face Long Term Opportunities Global Master L.P., a Cayman Islands exempted limited partnership (“WFGM”). Mr. Boland is President and Chief Executive Officer of West Face. In such capacities, West Face and Mr. Boland may be deemed to have voting and dispositive power over the shares held for the account of WFGM. The address for West Face Capital Inc. is 2 Bloor Street East, Suite 3000, Toronto, Ontario M4W 1A8. "

  • Reply to

    Buying Back Now

    by daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 1:00 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I thought $6.64-$6.65 was a good price. I placed another order for 20,000 at $6.51 exactly one minute before close. I got 6,526 more shares today at $6.51. I will buy another 60,000-80,000 below $6.50 but I will be patient and try to get it cheap. The big buyer was there today but let it back off after he bought about 80,000 at $6.61...........DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Started replacing shares sold last few days. Someone just place a buy order for 50,000 at $6.61 so I bought 11,865 at $6.64-$6.65.......just FYI.

  • Reply to

    Texas sold out ? California ?

    by freezing_in_toronto Apr 30, 2015 10:08 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    I can't remember if it was MLM or USCR but one of them last quarter said Texas was sold out for 2015. USCR started moving up last week after CX reported. This is almost a license to print money......no analyst even has any idea what to really expect as almost nothing has annualized. They are acquiring accretive assets so fast they can't project......DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MLM

    by daninfw04 Apr 29, 2015 4:07 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    MLM is up over $8 as I type this.....up over 6%. USCR could really pop as well. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MLM

    by daninfw04 Apr 29, 2015 4:07 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 30, 2015 8:47 AM Flag

    MLM just reported that pricing for aggregates was up 11% last quarter and raised pricing guidance to 9% for all of 2015. They also said pricing for concrete was also up 11% for quarter but concrete revenues only up 8% because of rain in Texas. Many positive comments about Texas market. The negative comments about Texas from analysts when oil plunged has been proven totally false. Great report. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 29, 2015 4:07 PM Flag

    MLM reports before opening tomorrow and might set the tone for sector. Will be interesting to see sales and margins. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

PBY
10.37+0.12(+1.17%)May 27 4:02 PMEDT