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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

daninfw04 84 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    S&P Capital HOV Target $3.00:

    by artmiranda2016 Mar 3, 2016 11:26 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 3, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    I had already posted this. But, in 2017 they are projected to earn 45 cents and at a peer average of 12 that would be $5.40 PT. At 15X it would be $6.75........DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Significant TAX Benefit Advantage:

    by artmiranda2016 Mar 1, 2016 2:08 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 1:35 PM Flag

    Homeseek twists everything. Homebuilding is very cyclical due to weather. Try pouring a foundation with three feet of snow on for businesses making money every quarter, almost every department sore chain loses money three quarters of the year and make a fortune in about 6 weeks of Q4. With the massive revenue gains expected for HOV, I suspect this will be the last year they don't make something in every quarter. I would not be surprised to see a few cents in Q1. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:51 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    I would add that they are projecting just a fraction of the revenue increases that HOV has predicted. There's a lot more to the article. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 2, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    Besides the Market Edge upgrade which actually said that shorts might want to start covering soon.......we also had S&P Capital IQ upgrade with a $3PT and the following to say:
    "Based on HOV's latest results, HOV's higher
    community count and our cautiously positive
    view of national home-building trends, we expect
    HOV to post a FY (Oct.) 16 revenue increase
    of 9.4% (about in-line with our 11% forecast
    for the homebuilding industry), with a 3.7%
    increase in homes delivered and a 5.6% average
    unit price increase. By way of comparison,
    in FY 15, HOV's revenues rose 3.7%, on an average
    price increase of 3.5%, and flat unit growth.
    FY 15 was impacted by HOV's earlier decision
    to boost speculative construction, a move that
    backfired when sales of these homes were
    light. This led to price discounting. HOV expects
    much less discounting going forward.
    ä HOV's homebuilding gross margin fell to 17.5%
    in FY 15, from 19.8% in FY 14, due to price discounting
    taken in Q2 15 to reduce speculative
    inventory and also due to some labor shortages.
    HOV expects 16.8% to 18.0% in FY 16, and
    we expect 17.6%, a very slight improvement
    from FY 15. HOV projects S,G,A of 9.8% to 10.2%
    in FY 16, above the 9.0% level in FY 15; we
    project 9.9%.
    ä We project EPS of $0.20 in FY 16, and $0.45 in FY

    Sentiment: Strong Buy