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Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack Message Board

daninfw04 205 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 27 minutes ago Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 19, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    I also wanted to point out that Outpissed screwed up today and posted the same post under two aliases. He is "Outpissed" and "False".......quite appropriate I might add. I put both of them on ignore right after that and would advise others to do the same. I won't be seeing anything else from him or her. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Maybe 2015 concern is starting to mount?

    by truth.monger Mar 24, 2014 6:25 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 24, 2014 8:18 PM Flag

    I'll try to be civil if you will. This sector is getting hit with constant negatives. Hopefully, the FCC meeting on 3-31-14 won't get the support that the new FCC chairman wants and we will get a positive for a change. The news today that set the tone in sector was Apple contacting Comcast about being a preferred vendor. This sector has never been about PE's just always Cash Flow multiples. I remember when almost all of them were selling at PE's of 2-4 but the cash flow multiples were 6-10. All of this sector is suffering from margin erosion. Retrans is going up but this is the year that reverse comp starts hitting big also. I will close with 3-31-14 being a critical date.

  • Reply to

    Dan!

    by outpissed Feb 6, 2014 9:57 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 6, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    Spd--Things are great. I hate to sound like a doom and gloomer as I really love this sector but things aren't well right now. Can't wait to a return to normalcy. Good luck and good to hear from you. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Dan?? GTN?

    by outpissed Feb 5, 2014 9:48 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 5, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    I love your sarcasm. Today isn't over and you made a bundle if you covered today and actually shorted weeks ago when you started these garbage posts. I should be borrowing money from you.....DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Dan & I still think EVC is a major short.

    by outpissed Feb 9, 2014 8:26 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 10, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    I have discussed nothing with you and you are just a scam artist telling everyone to short while you buy. How pathetic. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 7, 2014 3:35 PM Flag

    Outpissed is a broken parrot and repeats almost everything I say wrong. Good luck on the contracts. I see GTN in the $10-12 range for a while. JMVHO DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 20, 2014 8:48 AM Flag

    We should see a nice bounce for sector today. The Utah judge gave the broadcasters their first real victory in court yesterday prior to the 4-22-14 Supreme Court date. The judge ruled against Aereo. From what I could tell, the decision didn't come out till market close yesterday. This may take some of the fear out of the sector. Still the Wheeler and FCC attack coming on ownership of more than one station and recent misses on earnings/revenue or both is a concern as well but at least something positive finally. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 12, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    Boy, entire sector still crashing especially with bad report from SBGI today. I said a few days ago that EVC was in a narrow trading channel and yesterday It looked like it broke support. Too early to tell but it looks like the big seller yesterday was reason. Today so far no selling pressure. Starting to look interesting here. Of the 15 largest holders of EVC stock, only six have filed Schedule 13's. The other 9 have to file by Monday. But, so far all six that filed added to their positions in 4th quarter. EVC did hit $5.53 and I said $5.50 was target low. I think we now have a lot of support at low $5.50's. Sector is still out of favor but IMVHO it looks like many are betting that EVC is a takeover target. Worth accumulating in the $5.50-$5.70 range. Only stock in sector worth gambling on right now. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 14, 2014 3:19 PM Flag

    The TXI buyout was supposed to be at $72 a share but with Martin Marietta stock price climbing the deal is now worth $82 a share for TXI today. The multiples for TXI make USCR worth $34-36 a share IMVHO. Credit Suisse just upped price target for CX to $15.20 today as well. The way to play USCR IMVHO is the warrants. Due to leverage it appears that the USCXW's may be better than the USCRW's. I have been waiting for months for the USCXW's to break below $2.00 but they are holding firm. I am now ready to buy between $2.00 and $2.30 on any weakness. The strike price between the two is $3.99 difference and it really makes no sense. I think the disparity between the two warrants will widen as USCR moves high at or above strike price. The real thing to remember here is that Martin Marietta is buying TXI mainly because of their strength in Texas and California which is where about 75-80% of USCR's operations are found. I think a good chance of a buyout from Martin Marietta at $34-36 once they close the TXI deal. It would really make them a big player in Texas and California. USCR is finally seeing real revenue growth from volume and price increases are just starting. Even buying USCR at below $22 will probably give you a 50%+ return in next 6-12 months. However, the USCRW warrants at say $2.50 should increase to about $10.00+/- if USCR gets to $33. You make 50% on the stock but 400% on the warrants. The warrants still have over 3.5 years left. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Maybe 2015 concern is starting to mount?

    by truth.monger Mar 24, 2014 6:25 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 24, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Again, when I first started playing this sector 5+ years ago everything was a bargain selling at PE's of 2-4. It was a no-brainer. Then the momentum players came in. Then nothing but retrans, retrans, retrans........and political 2014. Perhaps got those backwards with momentum last. And then as I said for months we just needed a catalyst to bring the sector down. Well, instead of one we got 2 or 3. However, then we got the MEG/LIN merger news and actually near the close today Morgan Stanley came out with a list of 44 companies that will probably get bought out in 2014.......and SBGI was on it. May be a positive for SBGI tomorrow. The point is money is to be made on volatility. Normally, there would be upside this time of year with political starting to kick in next few months. But, we now have the FCC soon to be resolved issue that may actually be a big positive or negative, the Aereo arguments before Supreme Court starting next month, etc. that will take away much of the normal thunder. The Apple deal today is very little different than the same deal Netflix cut a short time back.......but today the market just perceived it as bad for sector. just a few thoughts. It's going to be hard for this sector to stay up till after FCC and Aereo issue resolved. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Big News Yesterday

    by daninfw04 Mar 27, 2014 8:51 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 27, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    I think you nailed it. Go back several years and look at what FCC did to Univision,,,,making them give up control of EVC. Univision still has right to say no in a takeover of EVC. I don't think we will ever see Univision take over EVC. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 7, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Today the sector is getting hammered by the news before open that GOOG is launching Android TV as a direct assault against the broadcast industry. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 15, 2014 9:49 AM Flag

    Not in PBY at present. I expected another disappointment due to recent and current inclement weather. I am not going to say a lot as nothing has changed. Read any of my posts for the last 2-3 years. The problem is:
    1) O'Dell who is a Sears reject.
    2) At least 2 of the current top VP's are Sears rejects brought over by O'Dell
    3) the hub and spoke concept is cannibalizing same store sales as I have said for years
    4) current HR VP is another joke with no industry experience. Oh yea, he joined some car clubs.......
    5) BOD's also have zero experience in this sector
    6) Where do I stop?
    PBY does make a great trading stock as eternal optimism is alive and well. Goes up when Gabelli pumps and drops when reality hits every quarter report. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Jan 26, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    I took a quick look t five broadcasting stocks that I follow and looked at some I didn't follow like Gannett which acquired Belo. Gannett hasn't even fallen 10% from it's 52 week high but also is not a pure play in broadcasting. They have newspapers which is even worse IMVHO. EVC is not a pure play as they are about 35% radio. Here is the amount this sector has fallen from 52 week highs:
    EVC 15.96%
    SBGI 19.71%
    NXST 20.05%
    LIN 21.27%
    MEG 25.95%
    GTN 28.08%
    Kind of scary when you realize they have fallen this much in about 2 weeks. EVC on Friday started showing major weakness and will probably drop to $5.50+/- this next week. MEG and GTN have always been more volatile. But, if you look at LIN, NXST and SBGI they are all almost within 1% difference. I see a lot more weakness in the market this next week. Starting to look ugly for tomorrow. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 31, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    I bought SD today at $6.14.......I like USCR warrant.s The USCRW's below $4 and USCXW's below $2.25............PBY below $11.50...........Gabelli just bought another 400,000+ PBY a few weeks ago and another large hedge fund Blackrock just added 1.8 million more shares. Still over 85% cash.......still think a big correction coming. We may be half done. I actually like JOB at 20 cents and think we will be 20-22 cents again in a week or so........I almost bought 100,000 a few days ago........no reason for this run up except pumpers and boiler room. I do think LT it could double or triple in 6-12 months. Not a trading stock. Good luck. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Automatic Sale

    by daninfw04 Jan 23, 2014 4:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Jan 24, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    You can't hack a hack.........DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Dan?? GTN?

    by outpissed Feb 5, 2014 9:48 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 5, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Again, I have never shorted a stock in over 50 years of trading. This is why analysts are known as anal-ysts. Marcie Ryvicker at Wells Fargo is always late to the party. She's the one a few weeks ago that told everyone the Aereo deal was overblown.......and sector has continued to crash. Read my postings on GTN this morning before market opened. I called it 100% again........

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Dan?? GTN?

    by outpissed Feb 5, 2014 9:48 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 5, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    For the record, I sold yesterday the 21,000 T bought at $32.01 for $32.36 and sold the 60,000 SD bought at $6.01 for $6.26-$6.27........99% cash again. Looking at PBY and SD again today. Made a little over $22K yesterday for one day. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Feb 5, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    The catalyst tomorrow will be LIN's quarterly report. IMVHO they must beat expect on EPS and revenues to help turn sector around. A miss on one or both will not be good. If they beat on both we could see a sector bounce tomorrow. Watch closely before open tomorrow. First real report since their merger. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 daninfw04 Feb 6, 2014 11:05 PM Flag

    I gave your idiotic post a long response on the EVC board. For the record, GTN is down from when I said strong sell.......not up 10%. GTN has traded in a 3-6% range almost daily for a year or so. Most of us can make money trading that range. Obviously you don't have the knack or ability. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

PBY
10.43-0.17(-1.60%)Apr 23 4:00 PMEDT

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