The average price of all shares traded today was $6.8651......pretty incredible. From $7 to $6.10 with most trading in the narrow range I mentioned before. This was also the last trading day of the month and the price that was used for any stock purchase savings plans. Interesting. DaninFW
To finish, I would rather have 10% of two million instead of 40% of $200K. In the call they also kept talking about how mobile was the fastest growing segment in their business. Then they admitted that mobile was just 25% of Pulpo numbers. That means it's only $950K in total revenue. That's less than $4 million a year. That's less than 2% of their total revenues. My 10 year old grand daughter could do better than that. They can't even manage their core business.....if they even know what their core business is.........boy, I could go on and on, but again, it's a spectrum play. These guys need to close shop and sell the spectrum. It's obvious even the radio business is worth little or nothing with these idiots running it.
IMVHO there is a big player going after EVC. This is a small fish worth the cost of a whale. WFC could get 25% control of EVC for an investment of about $150 million which is nothing to them. I think we will be hearing from them again at the latest next schedule 13 filings when they will have to show their hand. A $150 million investment could easily return a half billion. I can't believe 2 or 3 funds aren't going after it. If WFC can buy a large block from Univision or the #1 holder it's a new ball game. The problem with MEG is that the CFO didn't even understand his numbers. The hedge fund guy that has the largest position in MEG said they were going after more acquisitions. The current management team can't even handle what they have. That scares the hell out of investors, The problem with EVC is communication and transparency. They also play a smoke and mirrors game. They could learn from others. When they do their press release they need to break down in writing what they are doing for guidance. For instance, they need to say we are projecting radio revenues from $16.5 -$17.0 million, projecting broadcast revenues from $45-$46 million and digital and mobile from $3.6-$3.8 million.. Then add in retrans of $6.5-$6.7 million. Add the totals and do the same for expense lines. One of the analysts didn't know that EVC put political into national ads. But, to me, where was state races? Another thing I harped on for over a year was how they used to report digital and mobile. They always gave "was up 42%" as an example but never dollars. Now, they say they have added digital and mobile to Pulpo numbers. So, if Pulpo did $3.8 million last quarter, how much was digital and mobile of that? Makes the Pulpo acquisition not look that good. They are also hiding the true results of radio as you mentioned. It's apparent now that digital and mobile results really sucked. A high percentage of a low base means nothing. DaninFW
Look at the graph for today. In the last 4 hours, EVC traded in a 2-3 cent range from $6.85 to $6.87 and last two hours between $6.85 and $6.86. Don't remember that ever happening. Someone is buying and putting it away. DaninFW
I have to add that I was indeed more optimistic after seeing SBGI, NXST and MEG report. They all blew away earnings even if revenue was weak at MEG. It just goes to show that we can't ever expect the idiots at EVC to perform as well as their counterparts in the sector. I admit I gave them far more credit then they deserved. However, the proof today is that LT t doesn't matter. It's all about the spectrum. The BOD's needs to fire the CEO. The CFO is the only one with any intelligence. This is an asset play not a bet on management. I don't think I have ever said otherwise on that. DaninFW
I don't know what you missed but they did make their numbers. Zack's shows they beat revenues by about a half million. Yahoo says they missed by that much. Depends on who you follow. Yahoo even has updated to show EPS expect 8 cents and actual 8 cents. It was how the press release was worded that threw everyone off. For the record, I did think they should have beaten on EPS. DaninFW
I already pointed out that these guys can't grow revenues but that inability accompanied by lack of expense controls makes it worth more dead than alive. Other investors feel likewise and are taking advantage of stock weakness. The management team is incompetent and overpaid. An activist investor, hopefully WFC, is going to find it very easy to get support. I just hope it's soon. A few more thoughts from the conference call:
1)Early in the call the CEO slipped and said radio was pacing up 11% for Q1. The CFO later said they expected to be up high single digits in radio. Sandbagging at it's best. They also said they just got a brand new client with commitments to spend $500K on radio. They also said they signed up 5 more radio stations a day or so ago. Radio is on fire. However, radio is still losing money. It's an albatross. One analyst pointed out that radio was doing about $70 million or 1/3 of revenues and that if operating expenses and corporate expenses were divided by segment instead of being one line item.....then radio was losing money. So let's get this straight. Radio is losing money. Pulpo is losing money but they plan to be $1.5 million profitable in 2015 and tv is losing revenues in the fastest growing demographic. These guys have to be embarrassed when they get their paychecks. DaninFW
Not sure I understand your question but in Q4, PBY's actually had a net gain in institutional ownership even though two of the top five sellers sold. DaninFW
As I said, it's about the spectrum. Those that sold out of fear this morning got clobbered. MM might keep it in this range a few days to shake out the last of the weak hands. WFC has an average cost of $6.48 to $6.52.....can't remember which, but you can bet they are buying. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Now that I have vented about management performance or should I say lack of performance, I want to talk about today. I don't really see much downside because EVC is a spectrum play. Nobody should be buying this company at current prices unless they were playing for spectrum value. That hasn't changed. If anything, the lackluster performance in Q3 and now Q4 only makes it easier for an activist hedge fund like White Face Capital to make a play for the company. I expect in next month to 3 months a report where they have upped the ante and seek board representation. Things have to happen pretty quick for them to have any say in the auction. The company I also still buying shares and has $7.5 million as of this morning to buy shares as well. We may dip but I expect a quick bounce as cheap shares will be taken out IMVHO. Retail investors will be only sellers and there aren't many of them left. DaninFW
Many of you have been on this board for years with me and others. A few are new. I just want to clarify a few things and make a point or two. I said almost 2 years ago this company was worth more dead than alive and that it had the worst management team in the sector. Nothing has changed except we found out spectrum is now worth multiple times the current enterprise value. Q$ performance only indicates why that is even more true. These guys couldn't manage themselves out of a paper bag. It hit me last night. The CEO bored everyone to tears and put them to sleep reading as fast as he could and naming every call letter for every radio station in every market. He is getting paid over $2 million a year with his whole package. If you take a hard look at revenue growth in 2014.......they increased total revenues only $5.169 million. Retrans was up $4.2 million and Pulpo was up $3.8 million. That's $8 million. EVC would have seen a loss of $3 million in revenues. These idiots are losing revenues in the fastest growing demographic in the country if not the world. They decreased revenues for ad sales when they were given almost $15 million in World Cup and political. If not for that they would have been $18 million less in revenues. I just wanted to put things in simple perspective. And, the real kicker is corporate expenses and operating expenses increased. They need to start firing some people starting with the CEO.
The press release should have said they made 8 cents before one time non-cash impairment. That's what smart people do. DaninFW
I agree. Last time the miss was because of one time Pulpo expense. I too wouldn't be surprised to see little change tomorrow. I think we have some big buyers now waiting for weak hands. Tomorrow will tell the tale. DaninFW
I don't see the downside like we had last time. I think we may test the $6.50 area and bounce. Last report 4 months ago we didn't have 1) the company buying back shares. 2) spectrum was not being talked about 3) White Face Capital has been acquiring shares. I strongly believe that WFC was expecting this bad report and will use it to buy more shares cheaper. 4) the float has dried up dramatically 5) company still has $7.5 million to spend on repurchase. 6) this company hasn't been selling at $7 a share for metrics anyway. It's all about the spectrum.
Call is fixing to begin. Hopefully, there is some positive forward guidance. DaninFW
Hard to put lipstick on an ugly pig. I have to say EVC once again proves they have the worst management in the sector......even though the CFO at MEG ranks real close. They should have somewhere in the press release said they actually made 8 cents until you back out the non-cash radio impairment of $700K. That would have given them 8 cents. Also, most people don't listen to conference calls. They only read, read, read. There was zero 2015 guidance in the release, Revenues were up $5.169 million yet corporate expense was up $778K of which $400K was non-cash stock for management. Operating expenses were up $2.297 million. These guys can't manage anything. Pulpo revenues were $3.8 million in Q4 at a cost of $1.5 million in expenses. Unless we get some real positive 2015 guidance on the conference call, it may get ugly.
Today is first day in weeks we have not had selling pressure. We had someone put a block of 10,000 for sale at $6.90 that stayed there for about two hours as it got nibbled at. Now we are moving towards $7 albeit on low volume. Would not be surprised to see $7+ today. I will not be selling/trading till after earnings. I will review after this evening. Also, remember we have the presentations 3-09-15 which should also add positive support. DaninFW