I would add that the current virtually zero interest rates EVC is paying would be null and void in a buyout. Whoever bought them would have to refi the debt. If you add 5-6% at least to the current interest rate that only wipes out about $20 million+/- in benefit to whoever buys them. IMVHO that makes a buyout even more unlikely. This is why I like trading EVC. The volatility is incredible. They get a bunch more new investors to drink the Koolaid until they figure out how poorly run this company is being operated and they dump. I am amazed that we are above $7 with all the Aereo news and FCC news. I would add the FCC news is bigger issue now. Some might call it a nail in the coffin. DaninFW
I would add that nobody has mentioned the impact of interest rates 2 years from now. Much of the EPS improvement was from interest rate reduction. As of 12-31-15, just more than 21 months from now, their rates go from almost nothing to 5.73% on $186 million of their debt. I will let you calculate how many millions a year in extra expense that will be. I will give you a hint. It's well over a million a quarter. And what about the rest of the debt? This is what is known as smoke and mirrors. On the positive side they are getting the benefit of almost no interest expense as if they were a Triple A+ rated company. In 2 years much of that goes away. But, that 5.73% is actually a good LT rate for a company with EVC's debt load. Many would kill for it. The point is current earnings are being masked by artificially low interest rates. For the record, because of all the idiots misquoting me out there. I don't think I ever said I saw EVC below $5 a share unless there was a crash. I just think at current prices it's fairly priced and a good trading stock. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see it run to $8 or drop to $6. Even money IMVHO. It's being manipulated right now and has been for these execs to dump their shares. Believe what you want. DaninFW
I would add that I won't pull the old news or posting but I believe it's about $4 million they have to expense for options in the next 12 months or so. If they had done it last quarter.........they would have not met EPS expect. This is one of the reasons after a lot of thought I bought the 50,000 EVC at $6.01 that I sold the next day when earnings were reported at $6.84 to $6.86. I realized that there had been few insider sales in many, many months and thought they would not take the hit. I was right. I now think this is the quarter it will take place. Many of you that are long probably don't like my postings. However, I have made well over $3 equivalent trading EVC last few months. I have my $10+/- a share without waiting for a buyout. You could have done the same trading. I honestly wish the longs well. Don't shoot the messenger. I didn't tell you like truth,monger it would be $12 by now. He is the idiot you should shoot. He keeps distorting facts and my statements. It's kind of like reading the bible. If you don't read the preceding and proceeding passages you can get almost any interpretation from a single verse. Let's see what happens Monday. If it goes up I would be a seller. DaninFW
Just trying to point out some big concerns. First off, Ulloa controls through beneficial and non-revocable trusts 889.848 shares in one and 10,599,517 shares in another. He can vote these shares but has little if any personal financial gain. This is also how he controls the company which enables him to cash out constantly at shareholder expense, pay himself more than other CEO's running similar companies many times the size of little EVC. The amount of stock owned by Univision also allows them to give their personal vote of approval before any merger can take place. It also requires that all contracts be up for renewal should there be a change of control. I don't call that in the best interests of shareholders. It also does not make it possible for Univision to buy EVC because it's part of the deal they made with the FCC if you do your research when they made them divest most of their holdings in EVC. The new FCC stance also makes it even more unlikely Univision would buy EVC. I would also add that in any accurate report that shows insider control or ownership of shares, it must include options, warrants and restricted stock even if not issued or vested. That's because in a buyout under every scenario I have ever heard about they become instantly vested even if not vested. If you guys take out all the stock these guys don't actually currently own or have DIRECT control over.....they are pretty much selling anything they can. In the case of Ulloa it bears even more scrutiny this time. The stock he sold yesterday actually vested on 110,000 shares of the 226,000 sold on 1-01-12. The other 110,000 vested 1-01-14. He waited over two years on over half and over 2 months on the other half to sell. WHY? He took advantage of beating revenues and earnings also knowing the sector is not in favor at present. I won't pretend that accounting is my expertise but I suspect we will see a near $2 million hit this quarter from option expense. DaninFW
After posting a fairly positive post on EVC I checked SEC filings after the close today. The Chairman and CEO sold 226,000 shares today and two other execs sold 66,000 each and our old buddy Wilkinson sold another 54,000+ yesterday and today. I hope you guys feel a ,lot better about this company than three of the top dogs. The 4th guy was already fired. I can't imagine this not having a negative effect Monday. I may be back in Tuesday or Wednesday. I would add that all these guys except Wilkinson exercised options at under $2 each and sold at over $7 each.......as I have said time and again.......the CEO runs this company like his own personal ATM machine. These three guys just pocketed $1.8 million clear profit today. BTW, that also has to be reflected in the P&L under "option expense" if they haven't already written it off........which they haven't. DaninFW
You are an idiot. Again, your reading comprehension skills are that of a first grader at best. I have never said Aereo was a great concept and have said they should have to pay for content. It's stealing. That is not the issue. It's fear of what the idiots in the Supreme Court might do. I have typed volumes on the subject. Please don't waste my time. I removed the strong sell for this sector weeks ago....about 3 weeks if memory serves. That was about the time the sector started showing strength and bounced about 10%. I've been on a 11 day Panama Canal Cruise and just got back today. BTW, you don't even own GTN. You just follow me around to harass me. You said EVC would be $12 "soon" back in November or December. It's been 3-4 months. I call that soon. We were down to $5.50 to $6.00 and just broke $7 again. Talk about calling the kettle black. I would add that the FCC issue is much bigger than Aereo at present. This sector is a hold at best right now. That does mean one can make money trading the massive volatility. But I would wait till you get to the second grade at least before trying that. DaninFW
Sorry, been out of pocket. Been on a 11 day Panama Canal Cruise and just got back today. As I said before I left EVC was starting to show some strength. I bought 50,000 at an average of $6.01 the evening before earnings. I expected a small bump to be honest but got out at $6.84 to $6.86 the day after buying. Made just under $44,000. Not bad. It dipped to $6.36 the next day and I honestly thought it would soon be back to normal trading pattern. I didn't buy more. Congrats to those of you that held to above $7. To me it is scary at these levels. There are two investor presentations next week or so and we may see it hang at these levels. They did surprise on revenues and earnings which was rare for this sector this quarter. The entire sector is getting killed because of Aereo, the FCC and disappointing revenues or earnings that the sector reported. Many now think the FCC issue caused most of the downward spike but the crash started way before the FCC news report and just further accelerated the sector decline. Funny that EVC that did no sidecars (that I am aware of), has few if any duopolies (that I would consider), no management agreements, etc. like almost the rest of the sector.......is now benefitting because they have the least if any to lose......but, it also makes them less and less a takeover target...............happy for the longs but I think we will see $6 again before $8. DaninFW
Sold 30,000 EVC bought at $5.81 bought two days ago on Friday for $6.23........42 cent gain per share or $12,600 profit before commissions of about $60. Looking to get back in at $5.80+/- again probably after earnings report. GLTA DaninFW
I actually posted this and much more the other day and Yahoo deleted. After today, my numbers seem to be confirmed. We are close to a point where USCRw and USCXW warrants should move in tandem wit USCR stock price. We are $2.10 above strike price on the USCRW warrants and just $1.89 under strike price for the USCXW warrants. Time value is the same for both with expiration at 8-31-17. For all practical purposes if USCR goes up $10.00 a share to $34.79 which is almost midpoint to my $34-36 price target, then the USCRW's should go up $10 to about $15.50-$16.00 while the USCXW's should go to about $13.75 to $14.00. However, there is a difference of $3.99 in strike price between the two warrants and yet just $1.65 difference in price based on today's closing prices. I don't think this will continue to hold. Being the cheaper of the two gives more leverage but at some point the delta should be almost equal. Therefore, the USCRW target price IMVHO is $15-$17 based on PT for USCR at $34-$36.......and target price for the USCXW's is $11-$13......JMVHO DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We should see a nice bounce for sector today. The Utah judge gave the broadcasters their first real victory in court yesterday prior to the 4-22-14 Supreme Court date. The judge ruled against Aereo. From what I could tell, the decision didn't come out till market close yesterday. This may take some of the fear out of the sector. Still the Wheeler and FCC attack coming on ownership of more than one station and recent misses on earnings/revenue or both is a concern as well but at least something positive finally. DaninFW
I posted a long post a few days ago that Yahoo deleted. Can't believe these idiots that run this company.
Today, there was one trade of USCR where someone bought/sold 303,000 shares in one trade at $22.80. That was over $6 MILLION DOLLARS..........someone likes this company. That one trade represented about 2% of total shares outstanding. Just FYI. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Your reading comprehension skills are severely lacking. I have been the biggest bull for this sector since SBGI was $1 and GTN was under a dollar. Read my other posts. This sector is crashing because of Wheeler now starting to challenge multiple station ownership at the FCC, Fear that the Aereo issue might actual amount to something.....and the latest that companies reporting thus far are missing on earnings, revenue or both. GTN will see $10 before it sees $14 much less $18-20 IMVHO. GTN is fairly priced at $12-14..........momentum is what drove this sector to record highs. I said months ago many times that we just needed a catalyst to spark a sector rotation. We now have 3 or 4 to close from as the culprit. I bought 30,000 EVC today at $5.81.........doesn't sound like I am afraid of Aereo. DaninFW
I also wanted to point out that Outpissed screwed up today and posted the same post under two aliases. He is "Outpissed" and "False".......quite appropriate I might add. I put both of them on ignore right after that and would advise others to do the same. I won't be seeing anything else from him or her. DaninFW
Bought 30,000 EVC today at $5.81.....right after my last order filled, there was almost 100,000 shares bought that pushed the price to $5.88 and back down to $5.86 at the close......all in less than 2 minutes. As I said a few days ago, it looks like EVC has pretty much bottomed. I think downside is $5.50 and upside is $6.50-$7.00......I will probably just trade for a dime or two next day or so but the opening tomorrow might be interesting. DaninFW
I currently have almost 20,000 of the warrants and hope to buy at least that much more at $2.50 or below. The schedule 13's have all been filed now and institutions and funds now own 10,542,589 USCR shares. They added a net gain from increased and new positions minus decreased positions of 855,180 shares in the last quarter of 2013. The largest holder also added 359,138 shares. I believe that the real reason for hardly no disparity in price between the two warrants even though difference in strike price is $3.99.......is because somebody thinks price is going well above $26.68 and they want to control the shares. It could well be the largest holder who has just under 3 million shares now. Control is the name of the game. The biggies seem okay with lining up to pay $22-$23 a share in a heartbeat. It's hard to buy much USCR stock with the small float that is left. They are very patient. I also think they will not hesitate to convert the warrants as soon as feasible. A very interesting story is starting to unfold here.........and they still have over $200 million they can buy other companies with. Their recent presentation last week is very interesting. This next report should show major impact from revenue and pricing gains last quarter. And yes, I think within 12 months they can get to $34-36 a share even with no buyout. DaninFW
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Again, a legal interpretation. The cable companies receive and retransmit the broadcast signal many times at higher quality. The Aereo model receives on individual antennas. For instance, the cable company receives one signal and resends to millions of subscribers. Aereo might receive 2,123,423 signals on 2,123,423 antennas and retransmits to 2,123,423 subscribers. Hope that helps. DaninFW
I want to stress again. I don't like what Aereo is doing and being able to get away with thus far. To my recollection the statement you refer to is fairly common and probably used 100% of the time. However, Aereo claims they are not rebroadcasting. That's the heard of the issue. I won't even pretend to be a legal expert but the majority of courts hav sided thus far with Aereo. They claim to be providing an antenna as I understand on behalf of the person receiving the signal and charging a fee to do so. DaninFW
The TXI buyout was supposed to be at $72 a share but with Martin Marietta stock price climbing the deal is now worth $82 a share for TXI today. The multiples for TXI make USCR worth $34-36 a share IMVHO. Credit Suisse just upped price target for CX to $15.20 today as well. The way to play USCR IMVHO is the warrants. Due to leverage it appears that the USCXW's may be better than the USCRW's. I have been waiting for months for the USCXW's to break below $2.00 but they are holding firm. I am now ready to buy between $2.00 and $2.30 on any weakness. The strike price between the two is $3.99 difference and it really makes no sense. I think the disparity between the two warrants will widen as USCR moves high at or above strike price. The real thing to remember here is that Martin Marietta is buying TXI mainly because of their strength in Texas and California which is where about 75-80% of USCR's operations are found. I think a good chance of a buyout from Martin Marietta at $34-36 once they close the TXI deal. It would really make them a big player in Texas and California. USCR is finally seeing real revenue growth from volume and price increases are just starting. Even buying USCR at below $22 will probably give you a 50%+ return in next 6-12 months. However, the USCRW warrants at say $2.50 should increase to about $10.00+/- if USCR gets to $33. You make 50% on the stock but 400% on the warrants. The warrants still have over 3.5 years left. GLTA
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Value, I have enjoyed the discourse with you and have learned a few things. I decided to research further today. The case before the Supreme Court IS for copyright. If the court rules, historically they won't take up a similar case again. This is it one way or the other IMVHO. Here is an interesting excerpt from a news article yesterday:
"The country’s highest court agreed to hear the appeal in January, and now they’ve set a date. In an argument schedule released on Tuesday, the court said it will hear the case on April 22nd.
The schedule is also notable because Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from the case, according to ScotusBlog.
Such recusals typically arise because a judge has a financial or other type of conflict of interest. This means that the decision could end in a 4-4 tie – in which case, the lower court decision siding with Aereo will be upheld."
This is from the same article:
"Aereo’s future depends on a controversial interpretation of copyright law that received a green light from a New York appeals court, but that the broadcasters want the Supreme Court to declare illegal."
In the brief Aereo just filed they point out that this is really an attack on the Cablevision decision which the court has already ruled on. I have read several other articles today. I now give the Aereo case a 75% chance of winning and taking all. The broadcasters have to win 5 to 3 as a tie is the same as a win for Aereo.
You and I will have to agree to disagree but I see this as a real negative for this sector. The smart money apparently agrees with me.
The broadcasters need to be concerned. This would not be taken to the Supreme Court if it wasn't important. Barry Diller wants a decision because he has mega investors lined up to take this national if Aereo is ruled legal. Sure, nothing will happen overnight, but once it begins.........DaninFW
Value, I will say it again. You could be and probably are 100% right. I was only painting possible landscapes and other scenarios. I want the broadcasters to win. I don't think anyone should be allowed to steal content. But don't forget about that 13%. Less than that can decide elections........which is why new laws are passed. I will also predict this will be the first noticeable year that political ramps up for digital and mobile......which is why SBGI iis being so conservative. The world is changing and if the trend even shows a modest decline for broadcasters they will load their future models with further anticipated declines. DaninFW