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LIN TV Corp. Message Board

daninfw04 87 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 20, 2016 7:12 PM Member since: Mar 23, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Moodys credit downgrade for HOV

    by rossipetraglia Apr 20, 2016 3:47 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 20, 2016 7:12 PM Flag

    HOV was moving up till announcement an hour or so before close. Moody's has been dragging this out since they began the review in November. Everything they said today is what they said as the reason for the review 4-5 months ago. Classical. Nothing we didn't already know but headline shock again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Headlines

    by daninfw04 Apr 19, 2016 9:42 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 19, 2016 4:19 PM Flag

    Don't know if you were addressing me or the other Dan but I posted this when HOV was up 2-3 cents. For the record, I have stated my objectives unlike others. I sold another 100,000 today at $1.74-$1.75 and bought back the same at $1.63-$1.64 today. It's a great trading stock as I have posted before. Still have 700,000 with average cost going from $1.89 to $1.875 today with another smart trade. LT this is going to be a great stock. I would also reiterate my statement from yesterday. It was not limit orders that kept it at $1.72-$1.73. The bis/ask and size last three hours till last 15 minutes +/- was 400 shares, sometimes 1,000 shares and a few times 4,000-6,000 shares bidding at $1.72 while there was always 36,000-42,000 offered at $1.73. We traded hundreds of thousands of shares and stock did not move. That is not limit orders. Very manipulated stock at current prices. When they decided to run it........watch out. Till then I will average down. However, my average cost won't be below current price much longer at this rate. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 19, 2016 9:42 AM Flag

    Typical that many don't read past the headlines. News today on permits was actually very good. After hitting an 8 year high last month they were only down 1.2% in March..........almost entire sector up on news once it was digested and interpreted by the smart money. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 19, 2016 8:58 AM Flag

    Market Edge upgraded HOV yesterday from Neutral to Long:

    The current technical condition for HOV is strong and the chart pattern suggests that upward momentum should continue. The stock has outperformed the market over the last 50 trading days when compared to the S&P 500. MACD-LT, an intermediate-term trend indicator, is bullish at this time. Upside momentum, as measured by the 9-day RSI indicator is very strong. The stock is in a short-term overbought condition based on a Slow % K stochastic reading of 80 or higher. Over the last 50 trading sessions, there has been more volume on up days than on down days indicating that HOV is under accumulation, which is a bullish condition. The stock is trading above a rising 50-day moving average. This validates the strong technical condition for HOV.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Finally

    by daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 2:15 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 4:36 PM Flag

    I don't believe in jinx's. The interesting thing today was the bid/ask was almost $1.72-$1.73 the last 3+ hours of trading with about 1/3 the shares bidding as the number of shares selling. This cannot be "real" for that long of time unless being manipulated to allow longs to get in cheap. If size numbers were correct it should have fallen several cents at least. Every time it hit $1.71-$1.72 there would be 4-6 times the number of buyers and sellers and then it would pop in a minute or two back to $1.72-$1.73..........HOV is so easy to control with this cheap price but as news comes out it will be harder to hold back. The insider purchase by the VP of HR is also worthy of note because it was 15 days before end of the quarter. Most companies do not permit any insider purchases from quarter end till 3 days after quarterly report. This guy has seen the sales for all but two weeks of the quarter and most companies prepare monthly financials so he knows how they did in February and March financially. My only issue is not really a big investment.......just barely over $25K. But, since he now has 111,000+ shares he also didn't sell any shares. I think that is a big positive. When this thing pops above $1.73 we should run to $1.85 fairly quickly. The current resistance is $1.73. Next resistance isn't till $1.85 +/- 6 cents. We have existing homes and housing starts this week. I expect weak existing homes which should lead to strong housing starts which should give us the push we need. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 18, 2016 2:15 PM Flag

    HOV finally popped today when VP of HR made an open market purchase last Friday at $1.74 a share for 14,537 shares. Not that much but he now owns 111,688 shares. HOV closed higher than the previous day for 8 straight days until Friday where it did claw back at the end of the day. Looks like trend is back now. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dan and the old crew

    by infotraxx Apr 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 9, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    Will send. You can delete. Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Dan and the old crew

    by infotraxx Apr 5, 2016 12:10 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 10:15 PM Flag

    I posted something today on Evc board. First time I have been on Meg board in about 2-3 weeks. If you want to join our group e-mail me or post your e-mail and I will contact you and then you can delete your message. I will be watching. You must spell out your e-mail or yahoo will delete......Daninfw

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 5:51 PM Flag

    I posted a message about EVC and GTN on the EVC board. FYI. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Apr 8, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    This was a group posting to 11 in our group today.EVC does have at least $2-3 in auction expectation in it. We need to remember that when trading. It looks cheap because it almost hit $10 but that was when everyone thought they were getting $500 million to a billion in spectrum money. I am beginning to suspect they will struggle to get $300 million to $500 million. At the lower amount they are a $7-8 stock and the higher amount $9-11. If they were to really surprise and come in at $800 million to a billion this could be a $13-15 stock. That's why I don't mind buying at $7+/-. I see very little if any downside. This is the poorest managed company in sector. They had an average FCF of $65 million 2 years ago and if they had not received $10 million from tower relo's they would not even be close now. They are only keeping 40% of their retrans and can't close a new contract with Univision after almost a year while sector appears to be getting about 45%. EVC pays the most reverse comp of any broadcaster and Univision is starting to fall to Telemundo. . Then, they are 1/3+ radio not broadcast that is marginally profitable if that. They also overpaid over $200 million for their radio assets. Do we trust them to invest the spectrum money? And, they have paid $20 million with earn outs for Pulpo which is barely making $1 million a year.......5% return and I even question that since they rolled their other digital businesses in it so you can't truly track.
    You mentioned all the other sector stocks were undervalued. I agree. GTN, for instance, which I like the best compared to EVC is a steal. GTN sells for only 1.41X sales while EVC is 2.46X sales which includes radio. EVC is $7.13 and GTN $11.64 today. On that basis, GTN would be $20.30........
    On an earnings basis since I don't have FCF close at hand.........EVC is expected to earn just 37 cents in 2016 and GTN $1.92. On that basis, GTN should be $60.40.......in 2017 GTN will earn only 98 cents while EVC earns 31 cents. E

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 3:17 PM Flag

    If they hit their numbers Imvho we should see $3-4 without a buyout. $4-5 with buyout. If they can remain independent and chop off $500+ million in debt easily above $5. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    I have increased to 700,000 shares and using 100,000 shares +\- as a trading tool to lower my average cost. Now down to average of $1.89 a share. I have been selling 100,000+\- shares when HOV pops 8-12 cents and buying back when it falls. Will always have at least 600,000 when it pops. I don't think anyone would loan these idiots money for a management buyout. I still think they will get bought out in next 6-18 months. Being #6 makes them a strong candidate for a builder that knows how to make money and wants to shield $2 billion from taxes. Daninfw

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    DaninFW new analysis/update?

    by tronolonemichael Apr 7, 2016 10:38 AM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Apr 7, 2016 11:08 AM Flag

    A group of 11 of us from mainly the broadcast bulletin boards have pretty much gone private e-mail. Many of us also hold HOV. Too many nutcases so I don't post much any more. Still holding right at 700,000 HOV. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 2:18 PM Flag

    No question the time is past for Ara to go. The stock would jump 10-30% on the announcement. The last conference call really got me. He kept using this one word about 6-12 times. I think it was "granularity". He sounded like a pompous #$%$. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    The #1 controllable expense in virtually any business is payroll. Very little else you can control to much of a degree once you get down to it. I worked for a company that was bought out by a competitor. They got rid of all the secretary's and administrative assistants except for one to share with 10-12 execs. We answered our own phones. This is a $9 Billion dollar company where the President still answers his own phone. I retired from this company and the stock averaged a 27% annual increase for almost 15 years before I retired. There is fat in any organization. I also agree they need to eliminate some of those 6 figure jobs. One of them is equal to 3-4 others. I remember a few years ago when Ara rented a bunch of space for millions in downtown Manhattan because he thought HOV needed to have a presence in the financial community. Now they won't loan him money........Homeseek, I often agree with you, I just don't know your agenda. HOV has always been poorly managed. History says they either change or get changed. That's what I bet on. The recent swift change in direction was orchestrated for an undisclosed purpose or reason. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 29, 2016 12:36 PM Flag

    I was looking at their total of full time employees relative to the industry. PHM has a little over double the FT employees but almost three times the sales. BZH has just under half the employees but over 75% of the sales of HOV. Looks to me like HOV is very top heavy which could be their profitability issues. Looks like they need to reduce headcount in line with competition. That appears to be major issue instead of pulling out of a few markets to raise cash. The six communities they are selling at a loss of $10.6 million written off or impaired last quarter had pre-impairment book value of just $34.4 million and will only produce $23.8 million in cash in Q1. They said the other properties being sold would not need impairment but we have no idea how much cash will be generated. I was convinced the first plan would have worked but it was a 3-5 year plan. The current plan looks to be just thought up on a whim but in reality I suspect the bankers and lenders said they wanted to see results now. HOV keeps having a history of looking like they are turning the corner and then more impairments. IMVHO if they had also written off several million in severance payments last quarter and said they were reducing headcount and expenses, the stock may have really popped. They cannot keep current headcount going into 2017 and beyond with revenues flat lining or dropping unless they really make up margins somewhere else. HOV management is not making the real tough decisions. The analysts are not helping either. They blast the stock and then raise revenue and EPS expect and then next quarter when they miss by a hair the stock gets hammered again. The analysts hated last quarter yet raised revenue expect from $620 million to $649 million and then EPS expect from 0 cents to 2 cents. Now if they beat the previous $620 million expect but come in a few million under $649 the stock will get hammered, If they make a cent but not 2 cents it gets hammered but it beat the 0 cents. DaninFW

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Frank

    by daninfw04 Mar 16, 2016 8:28 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 17, 2016 8:53 AM Flag

    I sent you a text not e-mail. DaninFW

  • daninfw04 by daninfw04 Mar 16, 2016 8:28 PM Flag

    Did you get my text reply? Daninfw

  • Reply to

    Rockysim

    by daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 2:44 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    No problem. DaninFW

  • Reply to

    Rockysim

    by daninfw04 Mar 14, 2016 2:44 PM
    daninfw04 daninfw04 Mar 15, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    As I told frank, I really don't know how but about a dozen people have sent me e-mails from Yahoo. If you post your e-mail I will be looking for it and send you a quick response. You can then delete your post or figure out how to send it privately. Sorry. DaninFW